Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the Houston Rockets vs. Phoenix Suns game on Tuesday’s NBA slate.

The final days of the NBA regular season have arrived. On Tuesday night, the slate wraps up with a late-late-late contest between the Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns as Kevin Durant and Jalen Green take on their former franchises. Get a pre-game nap in and pour a cup of coffee — this 11 p.m. ET matchup will be one to stay up for!

Here’s a Rockets vs. Suns prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Tuesday nightcap.

Rockets vs. Suns prediction, preview

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are a polarizing bunch at 49-29, but they’ve found their best stretch of play in recent weeks at 8-2 over their last 10 games with a six-game winning streak. A +5.0 NETRTG falls seventh in the NBA and they operate at second-to-last in pace, too.

Defense is the name of the game for Houston, allowing the fourth-fewest PPG at 110.0 and ranking eighth in DEFRTG. The Rox are first in rebounding with 47.1 per game, and while they’re 11th in DREB, they’re first in OREB. Those boards are the crux of the attack, which averages 114.8 PPG but sits ninth in OFFRTG. Despite being 21st in assists and 27th in AST/TO ratio, they’re pretty efficient with a 47.8% FG% and a 36.7% 3P%.

The Rockets are almost entirely healthy on the injury report. Kevin Durant’s 25.9 PPG are a team best and he’ll be just shy of a 50/40/90 season with a 51.9% FG% and 41.0% 3P%, falling short with an 87.7% FT%. Alperen Sengun averages 20.6 points, 8.8 rebounds and 6.2 assists and has looked more like himself as of late. Amen Thompson brings all-around production of 17.9 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists, plus elite defensive abilities. Jabari Smith Jr, Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason all average double-digit points with heavy minutes.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns have defied expectations all season at 43-25 and previously clinched a postseason appearance in Jordan Ott’s first year as head coach. They’re only 4-6 over their last 10, but the overall results speak for themselves with a +1.6 NETRTG that ranks 14th in the league. They’re also 24th in pace.

Much like Houston’s approach, the defense is key to success in Phoenix. The Suns allow 111.3 PPG, seventh fewest, and sit 10th in DEFRTG. They’re a disruptive bunch with the third-most opponent turnovers and third-most steals per game in total, but fall 20th in rebounding with 43.0 a night. However, they’re also fourth in OREB, which should prove interesting thanks to those similarities in strengths between these teams. Phoenix averages 112.9 PPG and is 15th in OFFRTG, shooting 45.5% from the field but 36.3% from three. The Suns are fifth in both 3PA and 3PM per game.

The injury report is clean for Phoenix outside of Haywood Highsmith. Devin Booker’s 25.8 PPG are a team best along with his 6.0 assists per outing, and Dillon Brooks brings a career-high 20.4 PPG as his primary running mate. Jalen Green posts 18.4 PPG with additional scoring punch, and Grayson Allen also averages 16.8 PPG himself. Collin Gillespie and Mark Williams provide double-digit scoring, with the latter contributing a team-best 8.0 rebounds per game.

Rockets vs. Suns pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as -1.5 favorites tonight on the road with -108 odds on the Moneyline. The Suns are listed at -112 odds on the ML with the game total set at 221.5 combined points.

Top pick: Under 221.5 points (-115)

Two of the best defensive squads in basketball walk into Mortgage Matchup Center tonight. Only one will walk out… kidding (side note: I miss the Talking Stick Arena name). With the prowess on that side of the ball both sides possess and the fact that we get another meeting between teams inextricably linked for the foreseeable future by the trade they made last offseason, there are probably some chips on various shoulders. Expect high intensity on the defensive side of things and probably a technical foul or two (we’re looking at you, Dillon Brooks!). The under makes sense, especially with the Rockets going under the game total 41 times so far and the Suns doing the same on 44 occasions. Any under usually has legs when these teams play, but especially against each other in a grinding slugfest.