Alex Hunter breaks down his preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s NBA matchup between the Suns and the Mavericks.
The Suns are hosting the Mavericks on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Phoenix is favored by 12.5 points and this game carries a total of 231.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for this matchup.
Suns vs. Mavericks preview
The Suns looked like they were cruising to an easy win over the Rockets last night, leading by as many as 21 points in the first quarter, but Houston erased this lead and won the game by 14 points. This was a deflating loss for the Suns and they have now dropped three of their last four, with that only win coming against the Bulls.
With this loss to Houston, Phoenix is now locked into the Play-In Tournament as the club can’t finish higher than seventh in the Western Conference. Even that spot isn’t guaranteed, as the Clippers are just two games back and have won two straight. The Suns haven’t been trending in the right direction lately, with an 11-13 record and ranking 17th in net rating since the All-Star break.
Phoenix is getting healthier, though, as Devin Booker, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks are injury free right now, and the team owns a 6.4 net rating with these three on the floor. The Suns are only 6-9 on the second night of back-to-back sets this season, but they didn’t have to travel for tonight as last night’s matchup vs. the Rockets was in Phoenix. On their home floor, the Suns are 24-16. Last, but not least, Phoenix is 2-0 vs. the Mavericks this season and this is a great spot for a bounce-back win, especially as Dallas has little incentive to win this game.
The Mavericks were eliminated from the playoff hunt weeks ago. Since the All-Star break, Dallas is 6-19 and ranks 24th in net rating. The Mavericks competed last night, losing 116-103 to the Clippers in Los Angeles. Now, Dallas has listed P.J. Washington (elbow), Naji Marshall (hip), Klay Thompson (rest), Daniel Gafford (shoulder), Brandon Williams (illness) and Caleb Martin (foot) all as doubtful for tonight. Cooper Flagg (wrist), however, is probable, as he continues to make his late-season push for Rookie of the Year. Flagg has scored 51, 45 and 25 points in his last three and he is currently a -290 favorite for the award on DraftKings Sportsbook.
While the Mavericks likely don’t want to win this game, they clearly want to help Flagg in his quest for Rookie of the Year. If they didn’t have this in mind, the rookie standout would be listed as doubtful like most of his teammates. Flagg should see a huge usage rate and have a big performance, but this understaffed Mavericks team winning this game isn’t likely. Dallas’ main options after Flagg certainly aren’t encouraging, with Khris Middelton, Max Christie and Ryan Nembhard being the most notable.
Suns vs. Mavericks pick, best bet
The Suns need to win this game and should have no trouble doing so. The Suns at -12.5 looks intriguing, but I am more inclined to back this game for under 231.5 points.
Phoenix is 27-13 towards the under at home this season, and outside of Flagg, the Mavericks should struggle mightily on offense tonight.
Best Bet: U 231.5 Points (-110)