Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers.

Two games are remaining in the NBA regular season, with injury reports as loaded as ever. The Philadelphia 76ers will face off against the Indiana Pacers tonight as part of a 15-game slate, with neither team holding a favorable outlook for the season. 

This is the fourth and final matchup between these two Eastern Conference opponents. The Sixers have come out victorious in each of the three previous games by scores of 115-105, 113-104, and 135-114. The Sixers experienced a notable shift in their outlook, following the news that Joel Embiid underwent emergency appendicitis surgery yesterday and is now out indefinitely. 

Looking at the odds for tonight, the 76ers enter as 15.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +750 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 233.5 points

Let’s dive into my preview and prediction for this Friday night matchup of these Eastern Conference opponents.

76ers at Pacers preview, prediction

The Philadelphia 76ers have slipped to eighth place in the Eastern Conference with a 43-37 record on the season. They enter this matchup having lost three consecutive games to drop them to two games out of being in a top-six seed and avoiding the play-in tournament. On the season, the 76ers have gone 42-38 against the spread, and the game total is 39-41 to the over/under.

Joel Embiid will be out indefinitely with his appendicitis issue. Cameron Payne will also miss due to a hamstring injury while Johni Broome is sidelined with a meniscus tear, but it will otherwise be an all-hands-on-deck effort given the seeding implications. Tyrese Maxey will headline the production with 28.3 points, 6.7 assists, and 4.1 rebounds while leading the NBA in minutes. Paul George adds 17.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists across his 35 games played, while rookie V.J. Edgecombe adds 16.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. Quentin Grimes, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Adem Bona also play key roles in the rotation.

Nick Nurse’s squad is averaging 115.9 points per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. The Sixers also rank 17th in offensive rating, 22nd in team field-goal percentage and 23rd in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.5 points per game against the Sixers, which ranks 19th in the NBA. They also rank 17th in defensive rating, 12th in opponent field-goal percentage and 10th in opponent three-point percentage.

The Indiana Pacers sit in 14th place in the Eastern Conference with a 19-61 record on the season. They picked up a victory over the Brooklyn Nets last night, but have lost 21 of their last 25. On the season, the Pacers have gone 38-42 against the spread, and the game total is 40-40 to the over/under.

Indiana has a loaded injury report, which has become the norm for them. Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell, Johnny Furphy, and Tyrese Haliburton will all miss tonight. Jarace Walker, Ben Sheppard, and Kobe Brown are each listed as questionable. Obi Toppin headlined the production with 26 points yesterday, and is posting averages of 11.4 points and 4.4 rebounds per game on the season. Jay Huff, Ethan Thompson and Quenton Jackson will also play notable roles.

As a team, the Pacers are averaging 112.5 points per game, which ranks 27th in the league. Indiana also ranks 27th in offensive rating, 26th in field goal percentage, and 20th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 120.5 points per game against the Pacers, which ranks 26th in the NBA. They also rank 26th in defensive rating, 27th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 12th in opponents’ three-point percentage.

76ers at Pacers prediction, best bet

Both these teams are playing on the second half of a back-to-back and limping to the finish line on the season. The Sixers have battled injuries all year, and following the news of Joel Embiid’s appendicitis issue, it feels like the floor fell out. Given the standings outlook, last night’s matchup was arguably their biggest game of the season, and the team responded by coming out flat and falling behind by as many as 28 points in a loss to the Houston Rockets.

The Pacers threw in the towel on the season several months ago and will have the NBA Draft lottery circled as the biggest day of the year from their perspective. Even without Embiid, the Sixers are the better team, but 15.5-points is a large margin. My lean would be toward the Pacers keeping this game far more competitive than it should be and covering the number.

However, I am backing the game total to go over the 233.5 game total. The Pacers rank 26th in opponents’ points allowed and 26th in defensive rating. Without Embiid, Philadelphia will play at a quicker pace and push the tempo as Tyrese Maxey and V.J. Edgecombe lead the offensive charge. The Sixers have defensive concerns of their own, ranking 19th in opponents’ points allowed and 17th in defensive rating.

The game total has gone over in 9 of the Pacers’ last 13 games, and the last time these two teams faced off, the game total finished at 249. The over is also 10-7 when the Sixers are a road favorite, 24-19 when they are a favorite, and 8-7 when playing on the second half of a back-to-back. Expect both teams to show their defensive flaws in an up-and-down battle and for the game total to clear the 233.5 line tonight.

Best Bet: Game Total Over 233.5 (-108)