The Heat are -4.5 favorites vs. the Hawks
Total (Over/Under): 243.5 points
Watch the game on FSUN | FDSE | WANF | PSN
The Atlanta Hawks visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00 pm in Miami, FL.
The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).
The Hawks vs Heat Over/Under is 243.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Hawks are 44-37 against the spread, while the Heat are 44-36 against the spread.
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Hawks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
SpreadOver / UnderMoneylineAtlanta Hawks+4.5 -110O 243.5 -115+154Miami Heat -4.5 -110U 243.5 -105-190
Heat vs Hawks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Hawks and Heat.
Heat vs Hawks Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Hawks will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 60.2% confidence.
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Hawks Best Bets for Tonight:
The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+19.05 Units / 20% ROI)
The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+15.80 Units / 15% ROI)
The Atlanta Hawks have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 86% ROI)
The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 25 games (+14.45 Units / 33% ROI)
The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.59 Units / 20% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 30 games at home (+15.05 Units / 43% ROI)
The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+14.05 Units / 31% ROI)
The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.15 Units / 17% ROI)
The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI)
The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+11.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Atlanta Hawks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 44-37 (+3.35 Units / 3.76% ROI).
46-35 against the Moneyline (+8.45 Units / 4.71% ROI)
40-41 against the Over for game total points (-5.1 Units / -5.72% ROI)
41-40 against the Under for game total points (-3 Units / -3.37% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 44-36 (+4.4 Units / 4.94% ROI).
42-39 against the Moneyline (-3.2 Units / -1.75% ROI)
45-34 against the Over for game total points (+7.6 Units / 8.53% ROI)
34-45 against the Under for game total points (-15.5 Units / -17.4% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 40 games at home (-20.00 Units / -44% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 50 games (-18.70 Units / -33% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 30 games (-17.90 Units / -38% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 50 games (-16.10 Units / -29% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only covered the 2Q Spread in 9 of their last 30 games (-14.95 Units / -43% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Hawks:
The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 45 games (-17.20 Units / -33% ROI)
The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 50 games (-15.55 Units / -27% ROI)
The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 40 games (-15.10 Units / -25% ROI)
The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 16 of their last 40 away games (-12.00 Units / -26% ROI)
The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 30 games (-10.60 Units / -31% ROI)
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Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Hawks are winless (0-6) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .372
The Hawks are 11-4 (.733) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .602
The Hawks are 15-9 (.625) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .442
The Hawks are 30-10 (.750) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .605
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks
The Heat are 17-1 (.944) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .788
The Heat are 7-7 (.500) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .602
The Heat are 3-10 (.231) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .398
The Heat are 11-23 (.324) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .442
Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Hawks have averaged 30.1 assists per game (2,440 assists/81 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 26.7
The Hawks have averaged 15.8 assists per game (1,279 assists/81 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8
The Hawks have averaged 30.2 assists per game (1,206 assists/40 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 26.5
The Hawks have averaged 10.5 fast break points per game (851 points/81 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.9
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 61.7 points per game (4,936 points/80 games) in the first half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 58.1
The Heat have averaged 10.3 fast break points per game (821 points/80 games) in the first half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.9
The Heat have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (2,315 assists/ 1,099 TOs) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8
The Heat have averaged 20.1 fast break points per game (805 points/40 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.3
Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Hawks have averaged 9.4 steals per game (765 steals/81 games) this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4
The Hawks have allowed an eFG% of 48% in close and late situations this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%
The Hawks have 765 steals this season — 5th most among NBA teams
The Hawks have 2,179 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd most among NBA teams
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (938 blocks/244 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Heat have averaged 3.7 blocks per game (457 blocks/122 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
The Heat have averaged 36.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,949 rebounds/80 games) this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.8
The Heat have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (481 blocks/122 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
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