Earlier in the 2025-26 season, it looked as though the Houston Rockets had all the makings of a pretender despite adding Kevin Durant into the mix. Fans have gotten so frustrated towards the Rockets for their poor execution in crunch time, and their offense can get clogged at times due to the lack of spacing. But the Rockets have been thrown a bone — as they got locked into a first-round matchup against the injury-ravaged Los Angeles Lakers.
The Lakers’ contending dreams got dashed on the second of April when they lost Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves to a hamstring and oblique injury, respectively. Both of the Lakers’ guards are currently on the mend and were projected to be out for multiple weeks at the time of suffering the injury, and considering how close to the playoffs they sustained those injuries, they are unlikely to return nor to be rushed back into action against the Rockets.
Game 1 of the Rockets’ first-round series against the Lakers for the upcoming 2026 NBA playoffs is on Saturday, April 18, and one would be lying if they said that Houston isn’t heavily favored in this matchup. Everything is certainly lining up for the Rockets in their bid to make it past the first round of the playoffs since 2020.
Here are a few reasons why the Rockets won’t be letting this series against the Lakers run past five games at most.
Rockets can play aggressive defense on LeBron James
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It is perhaps the biggest understatement in the world to say that Doncic gave the Rockets so many problems. Houston has built its identity around defense and grit, but Doncic, during the Lakers’ past two matchups against the Rockets, had Houston bending to his will.
Amen Thompson is already one of the best defenders in the NBA, but Doncic’s maneuverings in pick-and-rolls mean that Thompson rarely sticks to him lest they risk letting LA play five on four. When Doncic gets Thompson or Tari Eason off of him, he goes to work — evoking memories of how he put Jabari Smith Jr. through the blender in crunch time during the Lakers’ most recent win over the Rockets.
Doncic has been on a tear all season long, and unlike last season, he has actually given better effort on defense. The Rockets’ lack of spacing at times means that Doncic doesn’t have to defend as often in space, allowing the Lakers to hide their best player’s biggest weakness.
Without Doncic, the Lakers could just make Reaves the primary ballhandler. But even that is not an option for LA since Reaves is also out of action. In the two’s absence, LA has relied on Luke Kennard to a degree they would not have thought they’d have to when they traded for him.
Now while Kennard is capable as a secondary ballhandler and playmaker, him being one of the primary focuses of the Rockets’ defense will expose the fact that he’s much better off as a complementary piece.
Of course, LeBron James is still on the roster. But James is not the player he once was. He’s 41 years of age, and he’s not the one-man postseason wrecking crew he once was now that he’s accrued all this mileage on his weary body.
James can step up, and he has a long history of dragging undermanned teams through the playoff gauntlet. But the playoffs in the Western Conference is a different beast.
This Rockets team, for as many issues as they have on offense and for as questionable as Alperen Sengun’s defense can be, has now won 52 games in back-to-back seasons, and unlike last year, they have a bonafide first scoring option on the perimeter in Durant.
James is going to be facing quite an aggressive defense from the Rockets, and the jury’s out if the Lakers role players can make enough shots to make Houston pay.
Luka Doncic is unlikely to return before Houston builds series advantage
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The Lakers do have homecourt advantage, which could play a part in the potential upset.
One series that comes to mind is how the Doncic-less Dallas Mavericks held the fort in 2022 in their first-round series against the Utah Jazz, buying enough time by stealing a few games just so Doncic could return to action.
There is a chance that Doncic returns, but the Lakers cannot afford to take this huge of a risk with their franchise player. Hamstring injuries are no joke, after all. But the Rockets can definitely steal both games away from home with Doncic unlikely to be ready for those early-series games, and taking a 2-0 lead heading into one’s home court is an advantage that only a few teams in NBA history managed to overturn.
This series is going to be a dogfight, and this is not going to be pretty. The Lakers are going to find it difficult to settle down on offense considering that their ballhandlers are going to be overburdened, and there’s just an overwhelming sense that the Rockets, when things get grimy, are going to thrive over a Lakers team that prefers to play silky smooth basketball.
The Rockets can play the zone-busting Reed Sheppard
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This is going to be the main puzzle for head coach Ime Udoka to solve. The Lakers managed to frustrate the Rockets in the regular season when they went zone and doubled Durant at every turn, and Houston’s offense bogged down to the point of defeat.
But with Doncic and Reaves out of the equation, Reed Sheppard is going to be a more playable piece. James can still hunt him down on screening actions, but considering the weakened state of the Lakers’ lineup, Houston can just send more aggressive help towards James.
Sheppard would help solve two problems for the Rockets. First and foremost, he gives Houston a legitimate point guard. Sheppard is a legitimate 94-feet ballhandler who takes that responsibility away from Durant, who, at 37, should not be handling lead play initiation duties.
Secondly, Sheppard would give the Rockets a legitimate floor-spacing threat. The best way to break a zone is to go and make some threes, and that’s exactly what Sheppard does whenever he’s on the hardwood.
Expect this first-round series to be a huge one for Sheppard. It’s not quite clear if Udoka will trust him to that degree, but he might have to considering the scheming the Lakers are about to do just so they could try and pull off an upset.
Earlier in the 2025-26 season, it looked as though the Houston Rockets had all the makings of a pretender despite adding Kevin Durant into the mix. Fans have gotten so frustrated towards the Rockets for their poor execution in crunch time, and their offense can get clogged at times due to the lack of spacing.