As the Denver Nuggets enter the 2026 NBA playoffs as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, here’s a breakdown of their first-round series matchup against the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves — and how it differs from recent playoff meetings between the division rivals.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves matchups: Who has the edge?
Timberwolves: 115.6 offensive rating (13th), 112.5 defensive rating (8th), 3.1 net (10th).
Nuggets: 121.2 offensive rating (1st), 116.0 defensive rating (21st), 5.2 net (7th).
Backcourt
Anthony Edwards and Jamal Murray are better players than they were in 2024. They’ve both increasingly embraced the 3-point line to great effect. Murray launched 127 more than his previous career-high this season, shooting 43.5% clip on 7.5 attempts per game. He’ll likely be rewarded with his first All-NBA nod. Edwards is 39.6% on 9.5 attempts per game over the last two years, up from 35.3% on 7.4 in the first four of his career. Nobody on earth craves the ball more than him. He’s the cockiest player in the NBA and arguably one of the five best. Pick-and-roll pull-up 3s have become one of his favorite shots to hunt — especially against teams that struggle with screen navigation like Denver.
How Edwards and Murray are guarded could evolve over the course of the series. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was Denver’s primary perimeter defender in 2024. He’s long gone. Christian Braun has been inconsistent at keeping Edwards in front of him, but he’s likely to start games with the assignment. Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown, Spencer Jones or Peyton Watson (if he’s healthy) could take shifts. The case for a Minnesota upset starts with the Nuggets being a bad 1-on-1 defensive team. They’ll likely have to send two to Edwards and find creative ways to force the ball out of his hands without compromising their 3-on-4 defense behind the double. Their zone will probably make an appearance at some point, with two at the top magnetized to Ant. Blitzing him on ball screens will test his capability — and just as importantly, his willingness — to make the right read out of the advantage he creates.
Murray is the more advanced playmaker of the two, and he has the benefit of sharing the court with an offensive weapon who demands even more attention than him. But if he’s bringing the ball up, he should expect the Timberwolves to replicate their full-court pressure that caused him so many headaches in 2024.
Jamal Murray (27) of the Denver Nuggets handles as Anthony Edwards (5) of the Minnesota Timberwolves defends Nikola Jokic (15) during the third quarter at Ball Arena in Denver on Sunday, March 1, 2026. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
More likely, the Nuggets will run plenty of sets with him coming off pin-downs and other screens to catch in the flow of their half-court offense, sparing him from the burden of initiating every possession. Murray can breathe a sigh of relief that Nickeil Alexander-Walker left Minnesota for greener pastures in free agency last summer, diminishing the Wolves’ on-ball defensive firepower. Their matchup choices will be fascinating here. Two years ago, Ant often guarded Murray himself and was up to the challenge. His commitment to defense has fluctuated throughout this season (understandable when you’re also the team’s offensive engine). Is he prepared to handle a healthier, more polished Blue Arrow? Or is that a job for Jaden McDaniels alone?
Minnesota’s de facto Alexander-Walker replacement is Ayo Dosunmu, a brilliant trade deadline acquisition who thrives in transition, shoots 44% from deep and could also guard Murray off the bench — if he doesn’t get moved into the starting lineup at some point. Both teams have a veteran, sharpshooting two-guard with a fiery competitive edge. It’s 82-game starter Donte DiVincenzo for Minnesota; it’s Sixth Man of the Year candidate Tim Hardaway Jr. for Denver. Either of these guys could pop off and steal a game for their team at some point in this series.
But so much of this rivalry comes down to Ant, as compelling a Nuggets villain as any. “I think there’s a lot of rivalries in the league right now,” he said Wednesday, “and me and Denver is one them.” For the sake of great television, here’s hoping his recent knee injury doesn’t become a storyline in this series. Who has the edge? Timberwolves.
Julius Randle (30) of the Minnesota Timberwolves backs down Peyton Watson (8) of the Denver Nuggets during the third quarter at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
Frontcourt
This is the first playoff clash between the Nuggets and Timberwolves since the latter swapped out a pretty important variable in its frontcourt — Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle (and DiVincenzo). The surprise blockbuster trade has aged confusingly for Minnesota and New York. Both teams went to the conference finals in 2025. Yet both players have a particular knack for getting their fan bases worked up by their flaws and inconsistencies.
Randle built a decent All-Star candidacy for himself early this season, but struggled at both ends in the second half. He’s 29.9% from 3-point range since Jan. 1. When he and Rudy Gobert are both on the floor, Minnesota’s spacing can get wonky if Randle doesn’t have the ball in his hands. Those lineups risk giving the Nuggets an easy out when they want to defend Edwards aggressively. Over the years, they’ve been more than happy to leave Gobert — a notoriously clunky offensive center — wide open on the short roll. If they’re also willing to ignore Randle on the perimeter, his off-the-catch shooting could become a pressure point in the matchup. KAT’s deadeye 3-point shooting and Gobert’s defensive acumen complemented each other beautifully when Minnesota eliminated Denver two years ago.
Randle is dangerous with the ball, though. Where he’s an upgrade from KAT is in his ability to hunt mismatches and attack smaller defenders. Gordon will guard him for the vast majority of this series and might even mirror minutes, but if the Nuggets try to put him on Edwards at any point, they don’t have great secondary options for Randle. (Zeke Nnaji might be their best bet, but he’s highly unlikely to see the court unless Denver is in foul trouble.) Watson doesn’t have enough strength to hold his ground against the 6-foot-9 power forward. Braun might be to size up to him occasionally, but not probably consistently enough for Denver to give up a switch every time. Could David Adelman test out Jones? It would be a tough assignment for a former two-way player who’s coming off a hamstring injury as he prepares for his first career playoff minutes.
As weird as it sounds, defense might be where the Wolves miss KAT most in this matchup. (This is where Nikola Jokic’s name is finally uttered.) Two years ago, Towns was their primary defender on Jokic, allowing Gobert to roam as a help-side rim protector. KAT is rather famously not known for his defense, but his ability to rise to the occasion and match Jokic’s physicality throughout that series was a remarkable feat, allowing Gobert to do what he does best. It was a huge reason the Timberwolves advanced.
Randle is nowhere near as viable in that scheme, in part because he gives up multiple inches to Jokic, unlike Towns. “Probably gotta call God and talk to him for a little bit and ask him for a few favors,” Randle said this week when asked about how to guard the three-time MVP center. Jokic is averaging 35.5 points, 11.3 rebounds and 10.4 assists in eight games against Minnesota since the KAT trade, shooting 62.1% from the field. Randle and Gobert played in all eight. How often will the Wolves want to try the Randle matchup arrangement? How long will they be willing to stick with it? Gobert is an all-time defender, but if he has to guard Jokic straight up, Jokic typically finds ways to win that battle as well (and Minnesota tends to double-team his post-ups less than other teams do).
One of the most effective strategies against Jokic around the NBA has been to front him with a smaller player who can get away with more contact. (See Alex Caruso, Game 7 in Oklahoma City.) The Timberwolves could try that with a scrappy guard like DiVincenzo or even with veteran forward Kyle Anderson, a buyout acquisition who was also pursued by Denver. Whichever way the Wolves configure their matchups, their help defense will be coming from Braun this year instead of Gordon, who has evolved into a lethal spot-up shooter since 2024. Braun regressed to 30% from 3-point range this season while battling an ankle injury. He’ll be the disregarded role player if and when Rudy roams. Minnesota is more likely to stay home on Cam Johnson, whether it’s McDaniels matching up — he’s the best perimeter defender in this series — or DiVincenzo. Who has the edge? Nuggets.
Anthony Edwards (5) of the Minnesota Timberwolves fouls Tim Hardaway Jr. (10) of the Denver Nuggets during the fourth quarter of the Timberwolves’ 117-108 win at Ball Arena in Denver on Sunday, March 1, 2026. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
Bench depth
Both coaches will have to gauge how deep they want to go into their benches early in this series, which could lead to some interesting dynamics. Minnesota has at least two high-level reserves in Dosunmu and backup big man Naz Reid. Beyond that, Chris Finch’s rotation could vary night to night. Anderson adds value as a defender and playmaker, but lineups involving him will also sacrifice spacing. Terrence Shannon Jr. or ex-Nugget Bones Hyland could be used as a sparkplug if Minnesota needs scoring. Mike Conley is a veteran with Finch’s supreme trust; his ability to eat minutes could be tested.
When the Nuggets are healthy, they have known entities off their bench in Watson, Hardaway and Brown, though their trust in Watson as a ball-handler might be tested in these playoffs. The backup center minutes will be a fascinating element of this series in particular. If the Wolves make sure Reid is on the court whenever Jokic isn’t, they might be able to take away Jonas Valanciunas completely. Reid can pick-and-pop teams to death, and the easiest way to guard him on the perimeter might be with a more switchable lineup, using Jones at the five. On the other hand, if the Nuggets want to force the issue, they could try to get Valanciunas a few minutes against Gobert, though that might mean altering Jokic’s sub pattern. Julian Strawther is Denver’s Shannon equivalent — a young guard who’s probably out of the rotation but capable of changing a game if he gets hot. Who has the edge? Timberwolves — until Watson and Jones are cleared.
— Bennett Durando, The Denver Post
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 5 storylines to watch
Frenemies: Channels of communication are wide open between these two franchises, based on their hiring practices. Timberwolves president of basketball operations Tim Connelly left Denver for Minnesota in 2022, taking front-office employees like Jon Wallace with him. Wallace left the Wolves last summer for the co-general manager job back in Denver. Both head coaches have been assistants for the other team. And don’t forget Minnesota guard Bones Hyland, who the Nuggets once traded in an addition-by-subtraction deadline move the year they won the title.
The end of the trilogy: The Nuggets took down Minnesota in 2023, beginning their road to the first championship in franchise history. It was only a five-game first-round series, but the seeds of begrudging respect were nonetheless planted, as Bruce Brown described it as the toughest series Denver had played. The Wolves got payback in 2024 with a 20-point second-half comeback to win Game 7 at Ball Arena. Eight current Denver players were on that team. They haven’t forgotten the sting.
The beginning of the road: The Nuggets are facing a nightmarish path to the NBA Finals, with arguably the three best teams in the West (other than themselves) standing in their way. First, it’s Minnesota. Second and third, barring upsets, are San Antonio and Oklahoma City. If Denver can somehow get through this series efficiently, it would do wonders for the team’s stamina and health going forward. Game 7s are likely in store eventually if the Nuggets are going to pull off a run for the ages.
Rudy vs. Joker: This is the fourth playoff clash between them, dating back to Gobert’s time in Utah. Way back then in the 2020 bubble, a memorable first-round series ended with Jokic scoring a beautiful hook shot over Gobert to give Denver the lead for good with 27 seconds left in Game 7. “I like his humility,” Gobert said this week. “I think he’s someone that doesn’t really care about the outside noise. He’s just here to show up, help his team win and go home. I like that. I respect that.” Jokic hates to admit it, but his eyes often light up at the opportunity to prove the best offense is superior to the best defense. The Joker vs. Rudy post-ups will be highlights in this series, one way or the other.
Wild card Watson: Peyton Watson’s lack of a contract extension has loomed over his breakout fourth season. He’s entering a crucial playoff run now that should be significant in determining his value as a restricted free agent this summer. But a suddenly gimpy right hamstring stands between him and the spotlight right now. He missed 25 of Denver’s last 30 regular-season games after suffering a grade two strain on Feb. 4. It’s been more than two weeks since he last played, and Denver still has some anxiety about his status. If and when he’s able to return, he may have to find ways to be impactful that don’t appear on the stat sheet. His on-ball and help-side defense will be invaluable to the Nuggets if they’re going to make a deep run.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves series predictions
Bennett Durando, Nuggets beat writer: I’ve got too much respect for Ant, and too much lingering skepticism about Denver’s point-of-attack defense, to predict a short series. But two years after the Wolves danced on Denver’s grave, I think the Nuggets return the favor. This one ends in Minnesota’s house. Nuggets in six.
Troy Renck, sports columnist: This is a real rivalry. Since 2022, counting the regular and postseason, the teams are 14-14 over 28 games. But Minnesota is no longer the boogeyman. Anthony Edwards is a human highlight, but has not been healthy. He might steal a game. He is not swiping a series. The Nuggets will win the offensive boards, and even if Christian Braun struggles from 3 when dared to shoot, Minnesota will have no answer for Nikola Jokic. As is always the case when these two play. Nuggets in six.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Keep those rosary beads handy whenever Aaron Gordon grabs his hammy. The Nuggets didn’t have Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown or Tim Hardaway Jr. in the 2024 conference finals — and Hardaway has been a quiet thorn in the side of Minnesota defenders for years. This is why you got ’em. Nobody can really guard Anthony Edwards when he wants it. Same for Nikola Jokic. If the Nuggets get more offense from THEIR wings than Minnesota gets from Gobert/Randle, they’ll be good. Ant-Man says the Wolves sandbagged the regular season. Prove it. Nuggets in seven.
Luca Evans, sports reporter: Anthony Edwards has hit the peak of flame-throwing powers like never before seen in 2025-26, which puts somewhat suspect Denver perimeter defense under massive stress. The Timberwolves have an ascending Jaden McDaniels to toss at Jamal Murray, and rotational options at center with all-time-great defender Rudy Gobert and sixth man Naz Reid. But the Nuggets have finally unlocked their late-game flow across this 12-game winning streak, and are ready for revenge in Minnesota. Nuggets in seven.
Nate Peterson, sports editor: The fix for the Nuggets’ Ant problem? Too much offense and just enough defense to win the 2026 Tim Connelly Bowl. Denver has reeled off 12 straight wins entering the playoffs, and with Aaron Gordon healthy and Spencer Jones and Peyton Watson likely available to start this series, Minnesota will avoid a sweep but won’t push this thing the distance. The Nuggets’ starting five with AG has obliterated opponents all season long with a +12.5 net rating. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s starting five with a less explosive Ant-Man has limped to the finish line with only a +0.1 net rating since the All-Star break. Nuggets in five.