Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Game 1 of the Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers series.

For the Toronto Raptors, this has been several seasons in the making. The 2018-19 NBA champions haven’t been in the postseason since 2021-22, when they lost to the Philadelphia 76ers in six games. Now, they’ll open a first-round series on Saturday afternoon against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who lost in the second round last season despite having the East’s best record during the regular season and are facing a critical juncture, given their high payroll and a pack of recent playoff success.

The series’ opening game will begin at 1:10 p.m. ET on Saturday at Rocket Arena in Cleveland. The teams have previously met three teams in the postseason (in 2016, 2017, and 2018, with the LeBron James-led Cavaliers winning all three).

Both teams should enter the postseason with a relatively clean injury report. For the Raptors, Immanuel Quickley is dealing with a hamstring strain and is questionable, but every other rotational player is available. Meanwhile, Cleveland sat basically every notable player on their roster during last Sunday’s regular-season finale, but every player except for Thomas Bryant (calf) practiced in advance of Saturday’s game.

The Cavaliers are 8.5-point favorites to win Game 1 at DraftKings Sportsbook (-355 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 219.5. Toronto is +280 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this clash and offer a prediction.

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers preview, prediction

The Raptors didn’t enter the season with high expectations, but their wing duo of Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram proved a formidable combination, as both were named to the All-Star team. They got off to an extremely hot start, winning 14 of their first 19 games, and while they’ve cooled down with just a 32-31 record since, November form is often a stronger indicator of playoff success than might otherwise be expected. Toronto also ended the season strong, winning 10 of its last 17 games, though it went just 1-5 against top-eight seeds in either conference in that span. Regardless of their results in the playoffs, though, the Raptors will surely consider this season a success, given their 30-52 record last season.

Cleveland is more title-or-bust. The Cavaliers got off to a mediocre start, picking up their 18th loss on January 8 after going 64-18 last season, and sensing that they weren’t capable of winning a championship, they decided to go all-in, dealing long-time point guard Darius Garland to the LA Clippers at the trade deadline for James Harden. Since Harden’s team debut, Cleveland has gone 21-9, and Harden averaged 20.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game while shooting 43.5% from beyond the arc, complementing Donovan Mitchell (who averaged 27.9 points per game and made his seventh consecutive All-Star team) perfectly.

Raptors at Cavaliers pick, best bet

Toronto swept the season series, but that means little now; the last time the teams met was in November, when Max Strus and Garland hadn’t yet recovered from their injuries and Harden was on the Clippers. It’s worth noting that all three wins came by fairly significant margins; the Raptors won each game by at least 11 points, posting a higher effective field goal percentage than the Cavaliers in each one. They also out-rebounded Cleveland in each, though Jarrett Allen sat out two of the matchups. When Allen is on the floor, the Cavaliers post a rebounding percentage 2.5 percentage points higher, so his health will be an X-factor. He’s been dealing with knee tendinitis, though he’s been pretty effective despite the injury, averaging 16.2 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in the five games since his return.

With a healthy Allen, Cleveland should have a slight advantage on the interior. Even after acquiring the defensively-limited Harden, the Cavaliers have been among the best rim-protecting teams in basketball, limiting opponents to the third-fewest attempts and the 10th-lowest percentage within five feet. Toronto has been similarly effective, but it has allowed a higher volume. Offensively, Cleveland has gotten downhill and finished at a nearly identical rate as the Raptors have since Harden made his team debut. The Cavaliers have also converted from the non-restricted paint at a higher clip while defending such shots slightly more effectively.

Cleveland should have a slight advantage on the glass despite losing the rebounding battle during the regular season series. Since acquiring Harden — who ranks eighth all-time in rebounds among shooting guards — the Cavaliers rank 10th in overall rebounding percentage, while Toronto ranks 17th across that same span. However, the young, lengthy Raptors should be able to make up that edge in transition, as they rank ahead of Cleveland in points off of turnovers and fast-break points on both sides of the ball. The issue is that they’ve played fairly undisciplined basketball without drawing many fouls themselves, which could be a killer against a team led by two of the league’s premier contact artists in Mitchell and Harden. Toronto could frustrate Harden, who doesn’t always take the best care of the ball, but it’ll need to stop him from getting to the charity stripe.

The Raptors’ three-point defense will also be critical. They out-shot the Cavaliers from deep in two of the teams’ three regular-season matchups, but that’s not typical; for the season, Cleveland ranked 13th in three-point percentage and Toronto ranked 21st. To be fair, that’s not because the Cavaliers took easier shots, as the Raptors attempted 1.8 more wide-open three-pointers per game. They also limited opponents to fewer wide-open threes. But Toronto’s healthier shot diet might not be enough, as Cleveland had three players in the league’s top 50 by three-point percentage over expectation and the Raptors had only two, with no shooter nearly as impactful as the Cavaliers’ breakout star Jaylon Tyson (second).

With both Toronto’s offense and Cleveland’s defense thriving inside the arc and the Raptors’ defense and Cavaliers’ offense preferring to operate beyond it, this could be a fairly competitive series. Still, Cleveland’s superior late-season form and home-court advantage — the combined swing is 3.3 points per 100 possessions in the Cavaliers’ favor — should be enough for it to pull off a win in the end. The Raptors’ defense is stingy enough that they should cover the spread, but Cleveland’s playoff experience — as mixed as its results have been — will prove too much.

Best bet: Toronto Raptors +8.5 (-115)