The Pacific Division champion Los Angeles Lakers, the fourth seed in the Western Conference with a record of 53-29, will host the fifth-seeded, 52-30 Houston Rockets to begin the quarterfinals this weekend.

The Lakers hosted the Rockets just once this season, a 119-96 loss on Christmas that was one of the worst defeats of the season for Los Angeles for two reasons; one, because Lakers shooting guard Austin Reaves left the game with a multi-week calf injury, and two, because Rockets point guard Amen Thompson repeatedly beat Lakers defenders toward a game-high 26 points.

The Lakers returned the favor in March, sweeping a two-game miniseries in Houston behind the brilliance of All-Star Luka Dončić. On March 16, Doncic scored 36 points in a 100-92 clutch-time Lakers win, then scored 40 points two nights later in a 124-116 Lakers win that ultimately got the Lakers home court advantage in this series.

This is the 10th time the Rockets and Lakers will meet in the postseason, with the Lakers winning six. That includes the most recent series in the 2020 bubble, a semifinals matchup that saw the Lakers beat the Rockets 4-1 on the way to the franchise’s 17th championship. While Dončić (left hamstring strain) and Reaves (left oblique muscle strain) are out to begin the series, this matchup does feature Rockets All-Star Kevin Durant and Lakers All-Star LeBron James; it is the fourth playoff matchup between Durant and James, the first held outside of the NBA Finals and the first since James’ final games with the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2018 finals.

Here’s a quick snapshot of the head-to-head factors to game plan this series:

Rockets perimeter offense vs. Lakers perimeter defense

The Rockets had the ninth-best offense in the NBA after the All-Star break, while the Lakers improved to 14th defensively. Durant’s midrange game will be key in this series, and he will get to that shot often against a Lakers team that permits a ton of 2s outside of the paint. The Lakers will focus on limiting 3s and free throws, as they ranked third in 3s made allowed and opponent free-throw attempt rate after the break.

The Rockets should oblige, as they are below average at both shooting 3s and getting to the free-throw line. Rockets shooting guard Tari Eason’s performance looms large in those departments, as does primary corner shooter Jabari Smith Jr. Expect Durant to see plenty of Lakers fire hydrant Marcus Smart.

Rockets interior offense vs. Lakers interior defense

This is the clearest matchup advantage for the Rockets on either end of the floor, and the Lakers know it. All week long, they have brought up the force with which the Rockets pursue offensive rebounds. Even before potential Rockets bricks, the Lakers will likely have problems protecting the paint and the rim, particularly with All-Star center Alperen Şengün present. Los Angeles has had some of the league’s worst rim protection all season. The Rockets outscored the Lakers by 31 points in Şengün’s minutes on the floor in two meetings this season, while the Lakers outscored the Rockets by 15 points in the March 18 win at Houston.

Rockets control vs. Lakers pressure

This is where the Lakers will miss Dončić and Reaves the most defensively. Dončić, for all of his defensive shortcomings, led the Lakers with 1.6 steals per game. Reaves checked in with 1.1 steals per game while drawing 15 charges, and Doncic drew 14. The Lakers still have Smart for steals and charge drawing, as Smart’s 20 charges drawn ranked third in the NBA. Durant had 14 turnovers against the Lakers this season. Thompson will need to help Durant and Şengün stay off the ball more.

Rockets pressure vs. Lakers control

The Rockets aren’t exactly a high-pressure team, ranking 20th in steals and 21st in opponent turnover percentage since the All-Star break. Thompson, Eason and Reed Sheppard represent Houston’s best steal artists, but the Rockets prefer to stay disciplined. Perhaps Houston gives its defenders more leeway with Dončić and Reaves out. James will take on more touches, with Luke Kennard (32-to-6 assist-turnover ratio last five games) and Smart serving as immediate relief. The challenge for the Lakers will be who gets a chance for guard minutes off the bench. Bronny James has been in the rotation for more than three weeks, while gunner Nick Smith Jr. was promoted from a two-way contract before the regular season ended.

Rockets interior defense vs. Lakers interior offense

Expect the Rockets to soundly win the rebound battle. They’re a good defensive rebounding team, while the Lakers have moved away from pursuing offensive rebounds as the season has gone along. Lakers center Deandre Ayton will be a big X-factor here. His issues catching the ball and consistently staying in position to make an impact have been challenged frequently, but the Rockets are not a special interior defense. Ayton’s size gave the Rockets defense problems this season, as he made 16 of 22 field goals. When James drives and doesn’t call his own number, Ayton will be a primary target.

Rockets perimeter defense vs. Lakers perimeter offense

The Rockets prefer to keep teams in front of them defensively while making offenses work harder for clean shots. Generating 3s will be a bigger challenge for the Lakers with Dončić and Reaves out anyway, and now Kennard’s increased on-ball presence decreases his daylight for optimal looks. The Lakers will primarily miss Dončić’s and Reaves’ ability to draw heaps of free throws. James did not get a surplus of free throws against the Rockets this season, but he’s about to have perhaps his biggest on-ball role in the playoffs since 2018.

The Lakers can’t ignore power forward Rui Hachimura, one of the league’s best shooters from 3 (44.3 percent) and the midrange (55.6 percent on non-paint 2s) all season. Thompson and Eason were deployed on Doncic and Reaves while the Rockets hid Durant on James, so it will be interesting to see how Houston uses its defenders without having to worry about Dončić and Reaves at least to start the series.

Special teams

Much like football has the kicking and return games, basketball has the free-throw and transition factors. James led the NBA in fast-break points at 41 years old, and the Lakers transition defense got better once it punted on offensive rebounding and limited live-ball turnovers in the second half of the season. The Rockets are potent when they get in transition, but they’re one of the slowest-paced teams in the league. Houston has been an average free-throw shooting team, while the Lakers have been among the league’s worst.

Coaching

Both Rockets head coach Ime Udoka and Lakers head coach JJ Redick had home-court advantage in the quarterfinals last season, and their teams would have met in the semifinals if they won their respective series. But both lost; Udoka’s Rockets fell to the Warriors at home in Game 7 while Redick’s Lakers were swept by the Timberwolves. Clutch time looms as a key factor in this series. The Lakers won both clutch-time games in Houston and were the best clutch-time team in the NBA this season. Houston, on the other hand, lost more clutch-time games (23) than any playoff team.

Intangibles

The biggest wrench in this series is Dončić’s absence, as well as Reaves’. The league’s leading scorer, Dončić risks serious injury if he returns early from a Grade 2 strain of a hamstring he has injured multiple times this season. Reaves’ injury also threatens his viability. But this series has the latest Game 5 start (April 29 in Los Angeles) of the eight quarterfinal series. Dorian Finney-Smith has fallen out of Houston’s rotation, but he was a key rotation player for the Lakers last season.

Bottom line

Durant’s words about the Lakers showing their hand defensively during the March miniseries and selling out on him is the biggest key to the series. It’s clear the Lakers are not going to let Durant play while hoping to hang on inside. How well James steps into the Dončić role, Kennard steps into the Reaves role and Hachimura steps into the James role will go a long way in determining how the Lakers can hold up unless (or until) they get Dončić and Reaves back.

The Rockets are going to have multiple blowout wins, but if the Lakers can keep it close, they have shown they can execute better than Houston late.

I expect the Lakers to win Game 7 at home.