The Memphis Grizzlies’ second first-round pick landed in an ideal range despite missing an opportunity in the lottery. Following a missed opportunity that was out of their control, the Grizzlies will pick 16th in the 2026 NBA Draft. The NBA League Office conducted a random drawing to determine tiebreakers, setting the draft board and lottery odds.

What initially looked like a missed opportunity quickly turned into the best-case possible for the Grizzlies’ second first-round pick. Coming into the draft process, Memphis had a pathway to land a second lottery pick. However, that scenario depended on the Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns’ playoff status.

Both teams were on the verge of missing the playoffs with the final play-in games on Friday night, with Memphis needing just one of them to lose. However, both won by double-digits to secure the eight seeds in their respective conferences. That forced both teams into a three-way tiebreaker with the Philadelphia 76ers for spots 16-18 because of the same record.

The Grizzlies’ Second First-Round Pick Lands Best-Case Outcome
How Their Lottery Miss Turned Into A Win

At first glance, missing out on a second lottery pick feels like a loss. Lottery selections carry star potential, and having two chances in that range can accelerate a rebuild quickly. With the Grizzlies already having the 6th-best odds at getting the number one pick, gaining an additional chance felt like a win. However, context matters.

Since the draft lottery extended to 14 teams during the 2004 offseason, no team between the 12th-14th best odds moved up. With the Magic and Suns having the best records of the lottery teams if they didn’t make the playoffs, Memphis would’ve likely been picking either 13th or 14th. This means having two chances at gaining the number one pick was nearly impossible anyway.

At pick 16, the Grizzlies only landed two to three positions lower. That means they can still find the same level of prospect, especially with plenty of prospects showing out during the NCAA Tournament. Also, they are known to trade up in General Manager Zach Kleiman’s tenure and have the future draft capital to make that happen. The random drawing conducted by the NBA League Office could have pushed the pick further down the board.

Instead, the Grizzlies’ second first-round pick avoided the worst-case scenario. This selection also places them in the same position as last year after they traded Desmond Bane. They gained the Magic’s 16th pick and utilized it to trade up to 11th to select Cedric Coward. They have a chance to repeat history with a more talented draft after connecting on last year’s slot.

What Should The Grizzlies Prioritize At This Draft Position

There is a lot that will happen between now and the draft to determine how the Grizzlies’ second first-round pick should be handled. First, they will find out where their lottery pick officially lands on May 10th. They have a 9% chance at landing the number pick, but could fall as low as 10th.

After that is settled, what happens on the trade front takes precedence. Ja Morant will almost certainly be traded before the draft, so what they return could change things. Also, the Grizzlies have traded up or into the first round five times in the last seven seasons.

With 12 first-round picks over the next seven seasons, including three next season, Memphis has the ammo to continue that trend. They also have the second selection at the top of the second round (32 overall) this year as an asset as well. The Grizzlies’ second first-round pick has a lot of potential, and they will likely make the most of it.

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