The Sacramento Kings received their first major news of the offseason yesterday, losing the tiebreaker to the Utah Jazz and officially falling to the fifth spot in the NBA draft lottery. While the odds and percentages didn’t drastically change, fifth feels like a long way to drop for the Kings after they spent much of the year as the worst team in the league record-wise.
We still have to wait for May 10th to see where the ping pong balls will place the Kings in the upcoming draft, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take a where the fifth draft lottery spot has landed over the last seven seasons.
Kings Lottery Odds
As a reminder, the Kings’ lottery odds are below, per Tankathon:
They can land anywhere between the first and ninth spot in the draft, with their highest odds being the seventh spot at 25.5%. In an ideal world, at least one for Kings fans, they would jump up to the number one spot, but they only have a 11.5% chance to do so.
Historic Outcome of Fifth Draft Lottery Position
There have been seven iterations of the draft lottery with the current odds, and the fifth spot has never collected the top pick. Below are the results of where the previous seven teams have ended up, as well as who the team ultimately selected.
2025: Philadelphia 76ers – 3rd (V.J. Edgecombe)
2024: San Antonio Spurs – 4th (Stephon Castle)
2023: Portland Trail Blazers – 3rd (Scoot Henderson)
2022: Indiana Pacers – 6th (Bennedict Mathurin)
2021: Cleveland Cavaliers – 3rd (Evan Mobley)
2020: Detroit Pistons – 7th (Killian Hayes)
2019: Atlanta Hawks – 8th (Jaxson Hayes)
The good news for the Kings is that the team moved up in four of the seven years. There hasn’t been a huge jump, but teams have ended up with the third pick three times over the years. That would feel like a win for the Kings after dropping so far in the lottery standings.
On the downside, teams have slipped down the lottery three times, with the 2019 Atlanta Hawks getting the worst results at the eighth spot. It doesn’t help that that was so long ago, which could make a pessimist think that the fifth team is due for a giant drop in the draft. It would be just the Kings’ luck to be the first team in NBA history to go from the fifth spot to the ninth spot, even if it is just a 0.6% chance.
On the flipside, an optimist could say the same thing with the fifth spot never being awarded the first or second pick. This would be the much more favorable outcome if history is going to give us a first.
At the end of the day, history doesn’t change the Kings’ chances. Regardless of where the teams before them in this position end up, Sacramento’s odds are what they are. But looking back does paint a good picture and shows that the Kings are more than likely going to move one way or another, with just a 2.0% chance to stay in the fifth spot. Now we just have to be patient to find out where they end up on May 10th.