Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves responded in a big way after their Game 1 loss to the Denver Nuggets, stealing Game 2 on the road to set up a crucial Game 3 on Thursday night. 

Oddsmakers have set the Nuggets as small favorites on the road, a sign that they still believe Nikola Jokic and company will win this series. Still, the Wolves have better this iteration of the Nuggets in the playoffs before, and they’ve made back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances.

So, there’s clearly a lot of experience and playoff tenacity on the Minnesota bench. 

Game 2 started off poorly for the Wolves, but they rallied in the second quarter and survived some late-game moments to come away with a five-point win. Now, Denver is without home court and needs at least a split in Minnesota if it wants a chance to take this series. 

Nikola Jokic (8-for-20 in Game 2) could be in line for a bounce-back game for the Nuggets, and he’s one of my favorite player prop targets on Thursday. Will a big game from the three-time MVP be enough for a Nuggets win? 

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Game 3 of this first-round matchup. 

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Nuggets -2.5 (-108)Timberwolves +2.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Nuggets: -135Timberwolves: +114

Total

233.5 (Over -115/Under -105)Nuggets vs. Timberwolves How to WatchDate: Thursday, April 23Time: 9:30 p.m. ESTVenue: Target CenterHow to Watch (TV): Prime VideoSeries: Tied 1-1Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Injury ReportsNuggets Injury ReportAaron Gordon — probablePeyton Watson — outTimberwolves Injury ReportAnthony Edwards — questionableNuggets vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop BetsNuggets Best NBA Prop BetNikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists (-138)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jokic is due for a bounce-back showing in Game 3: 

Nikola Jokic appeared to be well on his way to another big game as a passer in Game 2, but he only recorded a couple of assists after the first quarter in the Nuggets’ loss. 

The Timberwolves changed up their game plan a bit, having Rudy Gobert guard Jokic one-on-one to force the big man to attack more as a scorer. The result? A Denver loss and an 8-for-20 shooting game from the three-time NBA MVP. 

I don’t expect that to continue in Game 3, and I’m going to take Jokic to finish with double-digit assists on Thursday. He reached 10 or more dimes in three of four regular-season meetings with the Wolves and had 11 dimes in Game 1. 

This postseason, Jokic is averaging 20.5 potential assists per game, and he may just need a better shooting night from Denver to blow past this prop. After all, the MVP candidate averaged 10.7 assists per game in the regular season. 

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

This series has been extremely tough to predict, as Denver trailed early but ended up covering Game 1 while the Timberwolves rallied from an early double-digit deficit to pull off an upset in Game 2. 

I think this matchup is pretty even, and I don’t mind taking the points on Thursday with Minnesota at home. 

The Nuggets struggled during the regular season as road favorites, going just 12-15 against the spread, and they didn’t execute well down the stretch in Game 2. 

Minnesota has to be happy with a split in Denver since Anthony Edwards shot 7-for-19 and 10-for-25 in the first two games of this series. After two days off, the star guard may be in a better spot as he’s dealing with a knee injury that he suffered late in the regular season. 

The decision to play Jokic straight up in Game 2 worked wonders for Minnesota, and Julius Randle (24 points, nine rebounds, six assists in Game 2) had one of his best games in weeks. If Randle plays at an All-Star level, the Wolves are a really tough team to beat – even for Denver.

The Nuggets’ offensive rating is nine points lower in the playoffs than it was during the regular season, which makes their shaky defense a bigger issue heading into Game 3. Minnesota should be able to cover this number and is a threat to win outright tonight.  

Pick: Timberwolves +2.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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