The Sacramento Kings enter the 2026 NBA Draft process in a familiar but uncomfortable position: searching for a franchise player while lacking control of their destiny.
After losing a coin-flip tiebreaker to the Utah Jazz earlier this week, Sacramento landed the fifth-best lottery odds—giving them an 11.5% chance at No. 1 and a 45.2% shot at a top-four pick.
But as Sactown Sports’ The Drive Guys debated, the real story might be how unpredictable that No. 5 slot actually is.
“The Kings ain’t picking fifth—no,” Kevin Gleason said, pointing to the slim 2% probability of staying put. “That means 98% chance… they’re moving one way or the other,” Gleason added.
That volatility adds intrigue—and anxiety—to a draft class headlined by elite prospects like AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Caleb Wilson, and Darius Acuff Jr.
The question isn’t just where Sacramento will pick—but whether that pick can truly change the franchise’s trajectory following a 22-60 season.
Darryn Peterson #22 of the Kansas Jayhawks and forward AJ Dybantsa #3 of the BYU Cougars chase down a loose ball in the first half at Allen Fieldhouse on January 31, 2026 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Allen Stiles raised skepticism about relying on draft position alone.
“Just because you have a top 10 pick doesn’t mean you’re getting a good player,” Stiles said. He backed it with numbers, noting that “around 29% of top nine picks have become All-Stars” over the past 20 years.
Even more concerning: “Picks four and five [have] about a 30 to 35% chance, and six through nine, around 15 to 20%,” Stiles added.
That reality challenges the assumption that Sacramento is guaranteed to land a difference-maker—even in a loaded class.
Still, Gleason pushed back on the historical framing, arguing this draft may be an exception.
“The flaw in that is that it presumes all those drafts were equal,” he said. “Most people think that there are more good players in the top ten in this draft than there are in most other drafts,” Gleason added.
That optimism is shared across the league, where evaluators believe the 2026 class has uncommon depth. For a team like Sacramento, that could soften the blow of falling outside the top tier.
PORTLAND, OREGON – MARCH 21: Darius Acuff Jr. #5 of the Arkansas Razorbacks looks on against the High Point Panthers during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Moda Center on March 21, 2026 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images)
Yet the stakes remain high. The Sacramento Kings are widely expected to prioritize upside, potentially even exploring aggressive trade scenarios to move up in the draft.
“If I have a shot at this guy that I really like, I’m gonna try,” Gleason said.
Ultimately, the Sacramento Kings’ path to a franchise player may depend less on luck and more on timing, evaluation, and bold decision-making. As Stiles summed it up, “You’re looking at around… a 20% chance that you’re going to draft an All-Star.”
For Sacramento, those aren’t comforting odds—but they may be just enough hope to change everything.
Listen to The Drive Guys from 2 – 6 p.m. PST, Monday through Friday, on Sactown Sports 1140.
When is the next Sacramento Kings offseason date of interest?
The Sacramento Kings will now look ahead to the highly anticipated NBA Draft Lottery, which is set for Sunday, May 10th.
Sacramento hasn’t secured the top pick in the NBA Draft since 1989, when it selected center Pervis Ellison with the first overall selection.
Be sure to stay locked in to Sactown Sports 1140 all offseason for NBA Draft Lottery coverage, NBA Draft previews and analysis, NBA Summer League content, and MUCH more!
More Sacramento Kings content from Sactown Sports
Upcoming Sacramento Kings & NBA Offseason Schedule
Sunday, May 10th – NBA Draft Lottery
Thursday, June 4th– NBA Finals begin
Thursday, June 25th – NBA Draft (Round 1)
Friday, June 26th – NBA Draft (Round 2)
Tuesday, June 30th – NBA Free Agency negotiation period begins (3 PM PT)
Thursday, July 9th – NBA Las Vegas Summer League begins
Monday, July 13th – Free Agency moratorium ends / signings can become official
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