Inside the offices and along the corridors of HSS Training Center, Nets staff and players dismiss the doomsaying conventional wisdom of ESPN and the Las Vegas sports books who have them winning between 18 and 24.5 out of 82 next season. That’s either a drop-off from two years of tanking (ESPN) or a slight improvement (FanDuel, et al.) One word being used to describe ESPN’s low total is “ridiculous.” And no, from top to bottom, they don’t mind being under-estimated. They are young, after all.

The Nets own internal win projection is a state secret. Yes, there is one. Nothing’s been said publicly either although Mikel Brown Jr. quoted Julius Randle as saying, “we will shock the world.” You’ll near more from the team on Media Day now a month away, on September 28. Sure the East, particularly the Atlantic Division is a lot stronger and the Nets will almost certainly be the youngest team in the NBA … not just for this season but in decades. And two of the five youngest players on the roster will likely start at the 1 and 2.

But projections are just that. We were told that the internal win projection for 2009-10 was somewhere around 17 That was the 12-70 season. An the other end of the scale, the internal projection for 2018-19 was 37. They won 42 and secured the sixth seed. And if you expect, like we do, an active trade deadline, what happens then could certainly alter things. So could injuries to your own team or to others.

There was also this past week, a couple of social media posts projecting the Nets beyond this season, just a little optimism from outside 168 39th Street in Sunset Park. Sam Quinn basically defended Sean Marks & co. after Bleacher Report put the Nets front office at No. 28 in their rankings. Quinn had put the Nets in the middle of the pack, at No. 16, earlier this month…

We have been hearing something similar…

And in the Nets newly released video on the off-season (more on that below,) editors chose to use this line from Marks talking about the future..

“I’m excited to see the roster grow,” said the GM following the Draft. “and I’m excited to see whatever falls our way in either trades and free agency.”

We’ve also heard that the trade deadline could be busier than normal — the Nets have historically made their biggest moves at the Draft.

Quinn’s tweet has nothing specific about targets for all those picks nor time. He was a 30,000-foot view. Like us he knows the lay of the Nets land: 10 firsts that can be traded tomorrow and anther 19 seconds available at a moment’s notice as well. They have other assets too, including a tiny bit of cap space, the full $9.4 million room MLE, $48.9 million space between payroll and first apron and nearly $7 million in cash considerations which have some utility specifically in salary dumps. Specifically, Brooklyn used cash to close deals four times last uear, including in the dumps that got them the 22nd pick that became Drake Powell as well as the one that got them Josh Minott.

They also have a couple of lesser known advantages. Because they’ve been under the luxury tax threshold the last three seasons, there’s no worry they’ll fall into repeater tax hell until 2030 which will be after the current CBA expires. Marks has a “surplus” of six firsts. meaning that over next seven years they have six more firsts than they would have if they only had their own. Some teams have a deficit. That’s what Quinn means by a “clean cap sheet” and “massive first round pick surplus.”

We know many of you will stop reading right here. Flexibility again?!? How about some wins?!? Why didn’t they use all those assets this summer?!? The answer to the last question is what you might call Marks’s “double A” rule, invoked at last year’s Media Day: they’re not interested in breaking the bank for anyone who doesn’t “automatically and absolutely” change the team’s “trajectory” and ultimately “sustained success.”

Incremental moves like trading Nic Claxton for Julius Randle and another first round pick are fine, but they’re hanging on to those picks believing they are currently the coin of the realm in the NBA. They’re always looking to adding some as they did in the Randle trade! They believe, strongly, the route to that “sustained success” in the age of first and second aprons is cycling through and developing first rounders who have cheap four-year deals. If they hit on enough of them, they’ll have good young players — and cap room to sign or trade for the higher-paid star or two without fear of luxury tax or aprons.

Here’s a practical example. Let’s imagine (hope) that both Egor Demin and Mikel Brown Jr. reach the potential that Nets brass believe they can: starting backcourt mates with All-Star possibilities. Demin is under contract for the next three seasons; Brown Jr. for four. This year, the two of them will make a combined $16 million — Demin, an eighth pick in his second year, $7.2 million; Brown Jr, a sixth pick in his rookie year, $8.8 million.

At no point during their four-year rookie deals will either make more than $12.6 million a year. If the salary cap goes up the customary seven to 10 percent each year from its current $165 million, neither’s salary will come close to 10% of the team’s cap space. Compare that to Michael Porter Jr. whose $40.8 million salary will represent 24% of the cap. Plus the Nets won’t have to pay either one the big bucks until 2030 in Demin’s case, 2031 in Brown Jr.‘s.

Here’s another practical example. The eight players on rookie deals this season — Noah Clowney, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Drake Powell, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf, Mikel Brown Jr. and Joshua Jefferson — will earn $38 million which is a little less than a quarter of the salary cap.

No, we are not saying it will work!! The Flatbush 5 has been criticized since the night they were drafted and three of them — Powell, Saraf and Wolf — did not have good Summer Leagues. Another, Traore, was hurt. The Nets have until October 31 to decide whether to keep them through a third year but no one expects the Nets will bail on their development this early. The team will face the same decision on year 4 guarantees a year from now. That calculus could be different. Even if it works to perfection, there’s concerns that they’ll face big decisions on big money all at once. (They should be so lucky.)

There are other elements to the strategy. They’ll take low-cost risks on so-called “fallen angels” like Josh Minott (and remember they took shots at Kobe Bufkin and Ochai Agbaji that failed.) They do not want, at least at this point in the rebuild, to cut long-term deals either. Thus, the impasse with Michael Porter Jr. as well as the team and “mutual” second-year options Minott, Day’Ron Sharpe, Moe Wagner and Keon Ellis agreed to this summer.

Indeed, other than the rookies with their two-year guarantees on four-year deals, only Terance Mann is owed guaranteed money beyond this season. He’s got $31 million left on his deal. Julius Randle has a player option. The roster is built to turn on a dime and unsentimentally move on.

It is a fairly unique (extreme?) strategy that will test ownership’s resolve and fans’ patience. It’s also lost on some pundits perhaps because of those unique qualities. Some might say the strategy is the response of the failed Big Three experience. It is unquestionably at the opposite end of what they did in the culmination of Marks first rebuild when they signed Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, DeAndre Jordan, traded for James Harden and added their friends, whether Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge or Mike James and DeAndre Bembry while dumping firsts to preserve cap space. We know that didn’t work.

Jordi Fernandez likes Julius Randle … and vice versa

The Nets released their latest Brooklyn Bridge video this week. It’s a 20-minute report on the off-season, which as usual, featured top notch production from the team’s video unit. It also provides some new insights into the team’s thinking on the Draft and free agency, plus what some might call “Easter eggs,” little hints of things hidden in the nooks and crannies.

One thing in particular caught our eye, which was the focus on the addition of Julius Randle. Here’s Jordi Fernandez speaking to camera (with a broad smile) about what the 31-year-old brings.

“Julius is an established, all-star. playoff player, a player that is going to come here and show everybody else how it’s done. I’m very excited to get to coach him, and for him to raise the floor,” Fernandez said.

Randle, who’ is happy to be back in New York where he excelled as a Knick, returned the favor telling the Nets producers he’s “excited” about his new role with a new team.

“I’m excited to be here. We got a lot of talent on this team, a lot of young talent and you know, I’m really excited to just help them.

Could Randle follow the model of Michael Porter Jr., who had his best season in the NBA last year under Fernandez? Earlier this month, his agent Mark Bartelstein praised Fernandez’s work MPJ. specifically how Fernandez used his client creatively.

“Jordi has been great for him,” said Bartelstein on SiriusXM.. “Jordi has been so innovative in how he used him.” Next up: Julius Randle?

In that same video, there an enlightenting section on how the Nets rookies fared in pre-draft interviews.

Mikel Brown Jr. spoke about leadership. When Sean Marks asked about how Brown Jr. leads, the 20-year-old was not taken aback. In fact, he seemed to suggest there was only one answer … and he gets it.

“By taking command!” he said. “Taking charge, knowing that I can take accountability when I’m messing up. They can get on me just I can get on them. I love to play the game the right way. I’m not … I’m not the one to be selfish, to care about stats. I want to win at the end of the day.”

The Nets other first rounder, 22-year-old 6’9” point forward Joshua Jefferson was asked, again by Marks, what set him apart at the Draft Combine. He was specific and not afraid to talk about how unique he thinks his game is.

“My vocalness on the defensive side of the ball,” he told the Nets GM. “I felt like the loudest person in the gym. I think I was playmaking, rebounding, I was defending. I don’t think there’s a lot of players in this draft are capable of doing all those things at a high level. That’s what I think I’m really good at doing and then that professional mature approach to the game.

“There’s not going to be any nonsense with me,” he added. “I’m just going to come in, get my work done, put in extra work and then be a good person to be around.“

As for Tyler Bilodeau, the Nets 43rd pick who’ll start his career as a two-way, Marks asked what he thinks his NBA role will be. Shooting, of course, is a given, but also promised physicality.

“Offensively, as a floor spacer said he 6’9” wing who had the highest 3-point percentage (46%) in the 2026 draft class. “You know, I think I can get into actions. I feel I have a high IQ so I can make plays and read things well, can shoot the ball at a high level, can play pick and roll, try to confuse defenses and that sort of thing. And two, if I can get into a mismatch, punish the mismatch.”

Terance Mann likes his role mentoring the rooks

Meanwhile, Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe wrote Saturday in a paywalled story got about Terance Mann, who grew up in Lowell, Mass. He spoke to Mann at his annual youth basketball camp.

“It’s amazing to be a part of it,” he said of the Nets situation. “To be a pioneer and help turn the corner for this organization. That’s really what my goal is, to try to be (a) cornerstone at that. It was very different. The organization had things they needed to accomplish. They had their own goals. It was a different situation than I was in in L.A. with the Clippers or even Atlanta with the Hawks. I grew really close with the guys on the team and we’re ready to tackle this year.”

Things will get a bit more interesting next week. Players will gather at HSS Training Center after Labor Day and begin scimmaging (without coaches’ guidance still the first day of practice on September 29.)

In addition, we should get confirmation on who the Nets invite to that training camp. So far only 6’9” Arkansas big man, Nick Pringle, is confirmed. Three Summer League players were rumored to be of interest to the Nets — Deon Brown, a 6’4” combo guard out of St. Louis; Ben Humrichaus, a 6’9” wing out of Illinois and Dain Dainja, a 6’9” big with a 7’7” wingspan who played for the Heat G League team last year. Also, this week, a Chinese website reported that 7-footer Grant Nelson who played for Long Island and Brooklyn last year will be on hand for camp. The third two-way also remains open.

We will also start hearing who looks good through the rumor mill. Whatever optimism out there we will take. Gotta have an antidote to ESPN and Vegas.