Through the first two games of the 2025 NBA Finals the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers are tied at one game apiece. That makes Wednesday night’s Game 3 a pivotal one, as over the course of NBA postseason history, in 1-1 best-of-seven series, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the series 73% of the time. 

That means that by the end of Wednesday night, we will have a much clearer picture of the Finals MVP race as we will know who has the inside track on winning the series. Through that lens, with a fair bit of speculation in terms of what are the most plausible scenarios for each team winning, this is how I see the Finals MVP race stacking up right now. 

SGA’s 72 points are the most for any player through his first two NBA Finals games. On top of the 36 points per game average, he’s averaging better than five assists and five rebounds, and he’s been in the thick of an OKC defense that is swarming Indiana. SGA has been extremely aggressive as a scorer in this series, getting up 51 shots so far on top of his 20 free throws. But the playmaking is there, too, largely as a function of his scoring threat that is forcing Indiana to shuttle help defenders into the paint. 

The numbers are just overwhelming. If the Thunder are to win this series, which they remain a massive -650 favorite to do, Gilgeous-Alexander is already virtual lock to take home the MVP trophy. 

Haliburton has not been very good in this series. He’s averaging 15.5 points and six assists, which are pedestrian numbers even at face value, but put them in proper context and you have to recognize the meaningless points he scored long after Game 2 was a wrap. 

In the competitive portions of this series, Haliburton has not been creating offense at nearly a high enough rate. He also has eight turnovers after entering the series averaging fewer than two per game in the playoffs. 

So why is he second on this list? Two reasons. First, he produced the most memorable moment of this series so far with his game-winning shot in Game 1. Second, there is a better chance of the Pacers winning this series than the Thunder winning but someone other than SGA getting Finals MVP. So an Indiana player has to be next on this list, and keep in mind, for all his struggles, the Pacers have actually outscored the Thunder by seven points over Haliburton’s 73 total minutes in this series. 

Alex Caruso has been better than Williams in this series, but I’m putting Williams ahead of him on this speculative ranking. Why? Because we’re talking about a scenario in which the Thunder win the series despite SGA playing poorly enough moving forward to lose his grip on the MVP trophy. The only realistic path to that happening is Williams emerging as a monster. Caruso is not carrying the Thunder to the title. 

Williams has been decent at 18 points, five assists and five rebounds through the first two games, which is a solid enough foundation to start the construction of a Finals MVP case if he goes crazy from here, which, again, he would have to do if the Thunder are to have any chance of winning in the event that SGA goes in the tank. 

4. Alex Caruso, Thunder

Caruso has been extraordinary in this series. His defense has been as disruptive as we’ve come to expect (three steals and two blocks in Game 1), and he’s been up to the challenge of punishing the Pacers for forgetting about him on offense with 31 points through the first two games including 20 in Game 2 on four 3-pointers. 

When Caruso is giving you this kind of offense on top of his defensive impact, you’re going to be hard pressed to find a more valuable role player in the league, and certainly in this series. In fact, even that’s not doing him proper justice. He’s flat out been OKC’s second-best player in this series. But again, for him to win Finals MVP, he would have to carry the load as OKC’s best player as SGA and Jalen Williams simultaneously lay three or four straight eggs. If that were to happen, no matter how well Caruso plays, the Thunder are not going to win this series. 

There’s a plenty plausible path to an Indiana victory in this series with Siakam being the driving force. In fact, he may have to be if Haliburton keeps going the way he is. But again, if Haliburton keeps going like this, the Pacers pulling off what would be a massive upset in this series seems like a near impossibility. 

But yes, Siakam has probably been a little bit better than Haliburton in this series, his poor shooting in Game 2 notwithstanding. He’s the only guy that feels like he can really pressure the rim against OKC’s defense, and his 34 points, 17 rebounds, seven assists and three blocks through two games are worthy starts to an MVP case. He’ll just have to be even better from here on out, while Haliburton continues to play an average series at best, in which case it’s probably moot as that’s not a recipe for an Indiana upset. 

2025 NBA Finals MVP odds

(Odds via DraftKings as of June 11)