Welcome back to another edition of the Brew Hoop Round Table, where we ask that everybody use coasters and please don\u2019t feed the aging pugs from the table, thanks. While some of us (i.e., Van) are a little worse for the wear after an insane NBA trade deadline, losing sleep and pounding our fingers into keys hundreds of thousands of times, the All-Star break approaches, and the Milwaukee Bucks are a pretty different team. As we often do, let\u2019s get the staff together to trade and make sense of what happened.<\/p>\n
What was your immediate reaction to the Khris Middleton-Kyle Kuzma trade? Have your feelings changed since?<\/p>\n
Van: Disappointment. Setting aside Kuzma and sentimentality for an all-time Buck, Middleton was productive and helping the team this season. Much like they did at times last year, they were rationing his minutes to ensure he could play in the postseason, and that worked out spectacularly. This is a guy who dropped 40 in a playoff game 9 months ago; it\u2019s not as if we\u2019re clinging to the pre-2022 Middleton here. I guess the Bucks just ran out of patience. Worse, I feel like this is the first time since 2017\u201318 that they aren\u2019t earnestly pursuing a title in a given season. My disappointment only (very) slightly abated when I started to see what plan could now come together this summer, as we\u2019ll discuss.<\/p>\n
Morgan: Sadness<\/a> and no. I wanted Khris to spend the rest of his career as a Buck, winning be damned\u2014even though he could have been a big part of said winning! For the return to be… Kyle Kuzma? The slap in the face is still ringing.<\/p>\n Jack: I suppose the reporting leading up to the trade softened the blow somewhat. But the reality that the ol\u2019 reliable Khris Middleton was no longer part of the franchise was a very tough pill to swallow. Since that point, I\u2019ve been trying to convince myself that the fit is better than it appears to be with Kuzma (or that the real payoff is that this will allow the team to make bigger moves in the future). There are unique elements Kuzma brings to the game, but some very real drawbacks as well. I remain hopeful, but not as hopeful as I was.<\/p>\n Kyle: It was weird. I wasn\u2019t surprised at Khris Middleton being traded; I had thought of this over the last year. But it was more the who came back that upset me as it felt like the Bucks didn\u2019t get much back in return, and it felt like a salary dump. Watching Kuzma against the Sixers softened the blow as he played well and was within control. But I still do not view this trade favorably.<\/p>\n Riley: I\u2019d been ready for this trade or at least Khris\u2019 departure from the franchise for a while now, so I wasn\u2019t fazed. In light of second apron restrictions and the excruciatingly tight window the team may feel it has around Giannis a shakeup felt nigh inevitable (unless this group won a title out of nowhere). As to the second question, my feelings have not changed since. The drive to win is a cold mistress. Khris is the latest victim of that. More are sure to follow.<\/p>\n Gabe: It was a bit of a shock\u2014not so much a shock from it actually happening, but just the realization of it occurring. For so many years, there\u2019s been chatter surrounding the eventual end of the Giannis\/Middleton duo. However, it almost seemed as if it\u2019d never actually happen. You could tell that this year brought a higher likelihood of it coming to fruition, so when it finally did unfold, it didn\u2019t seem as jarring as it might\u2019ve in past years.<\/p>\n Did the Bucks\u2019 title chances increase, decrease, or remain the same by swapping Middleton, AJ Johnson, Delon Wright, and MarJon Beauchamp for Kuzma, Jericho Sims, and Kevin Porter Jr.?<\/p>\n Van: Decrease easily. Prior to the move, I thought their ceiling was an NBA championship; I still believe that a healthy playoff run with Giannis, Damian Lillard, and Middleton (which we never got, thanks to Giannis\u2019 playoff injuries) would have taken them pretty deep, perhaps all the way. Now, though, the team has less talent and less cohesion on it in swapping Middleton for Kuz; while they may have raised their floor, I\u2019m bearish on a deep run.<\/p>\n Morgan: They certainly decrease this season, and that\u2019s the point: chalk this year up as a failure and take a swing at someone this summer with the added financial flexibility of swapping Khris for Kuz. There\u2019s no way they were going to get past two of the three top seeds in the conference, and even getting past the first round is an open question. The hope is that they will increase in the next two years, but I\u2019ll hold my horses on that until the offseason.<\/p>\n Jack: As much as I hate to admit it, I think they decreased this season. Middleton, If healthy (and that is a massive \u201cif\u201d with him), played a connector role on this team that was so important. I will admit, though, that I was very worried about Khris\u2019 health going forward, and there is at least a chance that the combination of Kyle Kuzma\u2019s (I don\u2019t think the other guys will matter) availability and age increases their odds at a title. But if the team is relying on Kuzma to deliver in key moments and play the role he needs to play perfectly, they\u2019ve probably already lost.<\/p>\n Kyle: Decrease this season but remain the same long term; I had viewed the Bucks\u2019 odds of postseason success as pretty low, but really, the team only goes as far as Giannis and Dame take them. If one or both of them are injured or not up to standards, that will be Milwaukee\u2019s downfall.<\/p>\n Riley: The only names mentioned in the question who are likely to have (or have had) a tangible impact on Milwaukee\u2019s title odds are Middleton and Kuzma. Khris had the \u201cwhat if\u201d factor around his hitting his physical stride at the right moment for the team; if he did, that was the best possible formula available to the team to win this year. For this exercise, let\u2019s assume things went according to plan. In that case, the team\u2019s title odds have tangibly decreased.<\/p>\n Gabe: My confidence in this team continues to decrease. For so long, it seems like they\u2019ve been constantly playing catch up in getting up to speed. Whether it be coaching changes, new personnel, you name it\u2014they always seem to never be where they want to be. As we reach the All-Star break, it\u2019s clear that familiarity and chemistry need to grow with the new roster. I mean, just the other night, Doc was talking about how multiple players forgot a play. Given that the playoffs will be here before we know it, I\u2019m very skeptical that this team will be able to piece everything together in a timely manner that\u2019s competitive with the best of the best in the East.<\/p>\n Where do you see the Bucks finishing in the East now?<\/p>\n Van: Fourth. Prior to the last couple weeks, I thought they were both good enough and cohesive enough to get to 50 wins and perhaps even sneak into the third or even second seed, given some struggles by Boston and New York. But now I can\u2019t see them finishing higher than four; they\u2019re firmly a mid-seed in the East alongside Indiana and probably Orlando, but they are one win away from having the tiebreaker over both those teams. I still think they are a tier higher than Detroit, Miami, and Atlanta, so I doubt they\u2019ll finish lower than fifth as long as they remain decently healthy.<\/p>\n Morgan: …sixth? Heaven forbid they become a play-in team, but Indiana is figuring things out, and I see Orlando making up ground once all of their starters aren\u2019t injured. I see the other teams similarly as Van, I just think that I\u2019m a little more pessimistic about Milwaukee.<\/p>\n Jack: I think they\u2019ll end up fourth. Once Giannis comes back and they can string a bunch of games together with him, Lillard, Kuzma, and the other key guys, I reckon this team will go on a run and overtake the Indiana Pacers. For what it\u2019s worth, I don\u2019t care about getting in the 2\/3 bracket at all; would rather finish in the 4\/5 bracket and avoid the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics in the second round.<\/p>\n Kyle: Fifth. I believe there will be more priority on having the key rotation players healthy\/rested compared to climbing up the standings. Milwaukee will likely face Indiana as a 4\/5, and with Miami and Atlanta losing quality, the Bucks will be comfortable in their current standing.<\/p>\n Riley: The Bucks have the fifth-toughest remaining schedule (tied with Utah) per Tankathon\u2019s tracker<\/a> on the morning of February 12th. Orlando, Indiana, and Atlanta, just to pick three teams competing with Milwaukee, have the fifth-, sixth-, and seventh-easiest schedules. Math is not destiny and the beauty of sport is that the human spirit, teamwork, and cohesion can overcome abstract numbers. Given all that, they\u2019ll secure the fifth seed.<\/p>\n Gabe: I\u2019ll go with fifth. Clearly, there\u2019s still some work that needs to be done. I\u2019m assuming that it\u2019ll take a bit for Kuzma to fully gel with the rest of the team. However, if they come back from the All-Star break firing on all cylinders and don\u2019t have to battle any health issues, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if they overtook Indiana.<\/p>\n How deep can Milwaukee go with this roster?<\/p>\n Van: Yes, a lot would have had to go right, and health was critical, but now I think their ceiling is the East Finals, no higher. A lot of things would have to go right to get there too. I won\u2019t be surprised at all if they win a series, maybe even two, but I also won\u2019t be shocked if it\u2019s another first-round exit.<\/p>\n Morgan: A healthy Giannis-Dame duo cannot be counted out in the playoffs. The lack of other quality Bucks, plus the quality of the opposition, shrinks the margin of error, but I\u2019ll zag from my previous answers here and say that I still think the Bucks can go all the way. I just think that it is very unlikely.<\/p>\n Jack: I think a second-round exit is more likely than not, but I would not be shocked at a conference finals appearance if some things fall their way. And from there, everything\u2019s on the table. I maintain that a healthy Giannis and Dame can win it all. But that won\u2019t be enough; Kuzma probably has to play a complementary role to those two, not a starring role with them; Trent and Green will have to hit shots; AJax must not kill the offence, etc. Many things need to fall into place, probably too many things, but it\u2019s not insane to say they could still go all the way; you\u2019d bet against it, though.<\/p>\n Kyle: It\u2019s hard to see them getting past the second round. There are factors like injuries and wild shooting variance that could go in the Bucks\u2019 favor. But it is hard seeing them beating the Cavs\/Knicks\/Celtics in a seven-game series.<\/p>\n Riley: Giving another team hell in the second round has been my target for this group since early in the season. That hasn\u2019t drifted and in fact, has probably only solidified with the downgrade in skill on the roster. Being more athletic than the other team helps some (so Kuzma isn\u2019t a complete wash), but playing at the uppermost margins makes the difference in a playoff series. Barring a path through via injuries sustained by other leading East teams advancing past the first round is the achievable goal.<\/p>\n Gabe: It\u2019s going to be very difficult for them to get past the second round. In fact, I wouldn\u2019t be shocked if they got tripped up again in the first round\u2014especially if injuries haunt them again. The only way I could see them making the ECF is if they\u2019re shooting red-hot for an entire series. That\u2019d be a Cinderella run, though. I struggle to see them making a bid at the NBA Finals.<\/p>\n Why do you think these trades were made?<\/p>\n Van: It\u2019s pretty clear they were made to get beneath the second apron. Not just as a way of cutting costs, though, but to set them up for a bigger move this summer. By finishing the year under the second apron, the Bucks\u2019 2031 first-round pick will not become frozen, which is another way of saying \u201cunable to be traded.\u201d This summer, GM Jon Horst will be armed with tradeable firsts in 2031 and 2032 (if one of those is traded, though, the other would have to be a swap) and three seconds with the extra two he picked up in the Middleton deal. That\u2019s a great collection of draft assets to offer up.<\/p>\n