View Link<\/a><\/p>\nThe fun thing about redrafts \u2014 especially after a single season \u2014 is that many of the same factors apply. We have actual NBA information, but we\u2019re still trying to assess potential. What\u2019s a guy\u2019s ceiling? How likely is he to reach it? And does the player we\u2019re looking at fit within the team context?<\/p>\n
As it does on draft day, age matters. My PPA metric says Zach Edey was the most productive rookie on a per possession basis. He was efficient on offense (+8.3 per 100 possessions relative to average), rebounded effectively, and was probably around neutral on defense. He was also 22, which while young in real life, is on the old side for a modern NBA prospect. He doesn\u2019t have the highest upside.<\/p>\n
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Regular readers know that I\u2019m a believer in statistical analysis. When it comes to guessing at the futures of players this young, it has its limits. For example Yves Missi, Kel\u2019el Ware and Donovan Clingan were three of the four rookies (the other was Edey) who rated average or better in my PPA metric last season. A straight numerical forecast would predict stardom for the trio.<\/p>\n
Watching them suggests something different. Clingan, Ware and Missi were raw. They were productive in part because of their lack of skill, and they limited their offensive repertoire mostly to shots within three feet of the basket. They may be hard workers, and they might improve their all-around skills enough to contribute more on the offensive end, but it\u2019s difficult to envision any of them developing sufficiently as an offensive threat to become stars.<\/p>\n
In other words, redrafting this group isn\u2019t as simple as sorting by PPA or even total production. There\u2019s still a process of reconciling what I see in the numbers with what I saw on the floor during the regular season.<\/p>\n
The 2024 NBA (Re)Draft<\/p>\n
Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks | ACTUAL: 1 \u2014 I know. Mind blown right? The guy who actually went number one goes number one in a redraft? Look, I had my doubts about Risacher pre-draft. My stat-based evaluation tool (YODA) had him rated as a late first or early second. But a) he was pretty good as a rookie, and b) he was just 19 years old. Kid has major upside and stays at the top spot.<\/p>\n
Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards | ACTUAL: 2 \u2014 I promise this exercise won\u2019t just be chalk. I heard that others doing redrafts {cough: Sam Vecenie: cough} didn\u2019t have Sarr in the top 10. That doesn\u2019t make much sense. Sarr\u2019s 77 PPA was below average but not bad at all for a 19-year-old, he showed significant defensive flashes, and there\u2019s at least a vision for how he could become an impactful offensive player despite terrible efficiency. If we\u2019re betting on upsides, Sarr\u2019s is probably the second highest in this draft.<\/p>\n
Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs | ACTUAL: 4 \u2014 Castle won Rookie of the Year for the usual reason players get the award \u2014 he led the class in points per game. He did that by guzzling possessions (26.8% usage rate) inefficiently (more than -10 relative ortg). His 78 PPA was almost identical to Sarr\u2019s, and he was a year older. Even though Sarr\u2019s efficiency was even worse (-16 relative ortg), I think it\u2019s reasonable to think he could peak higher than Castle.<\/p>\n
Jared McCain, Philadelphia 76ers | ACTUAL: 16 \u2014 Got off to an impressive start (93 PPA at age 20 is good) and then got hurt and missed the rest of the season. I almost picked him third ahead of Castle. If McCain had maintained his level of play and not suffered an injury, he probably would have been ROY.<\/p>\n
Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies | ACTUAL: 39 \u2014 Strong rookie season from a second round selection. Even if he tops out around as an average starter (which is about what I\u2019d expect), he was a great value at 39.<\/p>\n
Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls | ACTUAL: 11 \u2014 Good size and mobility with NBA skills and a competitive personality.<\/p>\n
Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers | ACTUAL: 7 \u2014 Edey was better (at least in my eyes) as a rookie, but Clingan made a defensive impact as a 20-year-old rookie and has the size and physical tools to dominate at that end. If he can set screens, grab offensive boards and dunk on the offensive end, it\u2019ll be good enough.<\/p>\n
Kel\u2019el Ware, Miami Heat | ACTUAL: 15 \u2014 Rim-running, defending, rebounding big man with good athletic tools. I strongly considered slotting Missi and Edey ahead of him, in part because of the critical comments his coach made about him during the offseason. Still, the production was solid, and there\u2019s good reason to think his upside is higher than the other two.<\/p>\n
Yves Missi, New Orleans Pelicans | ACTUAL: 21 \u2014 Rim-running, defending, rebounding big man. I\u2019d take arguments for Ware or Edey ahead of him.<\/p>\n
Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies | ACTUAL: 9 \u2014 Massive human being who\u2019s also a skilled basketball player. With Edey, the question \u2014 and the reason he lands \u201conly\u201d tenth \u2014 is whether he has the mobility to survive defensively in high stakes games. My guess is that he\u2019ll be too limited to thrive in the playoffs, but that he\u2019ll have a long career as a regular season \u201cinnings eater\u201d if his team can construct the roster properly.<\/p>\n
Ryan Dunn, Phoenix Suns | ACTUAL: 28 \u2014 Probably won\u2019t shoot well enough to win a major role, but he\u2019ll stick around as a defensive specialist until his athleticism wanes.<\/p>\n
Kyle Filipowski, Utah Jazz | ACTUAL 32 \u2014 Yeah, another center. There\u2019s a case for Filipowski to go ahead of all the other centers, even possibly Clingan. Good passer, good all-around skills. Might be a career backup, but that\u2019s not bad at 12. Or 32.<\/p>\n
Bub Carrington, Washington Wizards | ACTUAL: 14 \u2014 Kinda surprised myself because while I liked Carrington, I wasn\u2019t exactly blown away by his rookie year performance. He\u2019s 13th in this redraft because of combination of the overall weakness of the draft and my skepticism of picking 23+ year olds this high. If Carrington works on his body and his game, his competitiveness could make him a strong third guard or a decent starter.<\/p>\n
Justin Edwards, Philadelphia 76ers | ACTUAL: Undrafted \u2014 Edwards was decent as a rookie (73 PPA) and might make a decent 8th or 9th many someday. I\u2019m not exactly overwhelmed by his potential, but a) this draft really is weak, and b) a rotation player at 14 isn\u2019t a terrible result.<\/p>\n
Dalton Knecht, Los Angeles Lakers | ACTUAL 17: For an older rookie (23 last season), his performance was kinda meh (78 PPA), but he\u2019s probably a good enough shooter to fill a regular season role for a few years.<\/p>\n
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Honorable Mentions<\/p>\n
Quinten Post, Golden State Warriors | ACTUAL: 52 \u2014 Decent, low-minute season for a 24-year-old rookie.<\/p>\n
Adem Bona, Philadephia 76ers | ACTUAL: 41<\/p>\n
Kyshawn George, Washington Wizards | ACTUAL: 24 \u2014 Would likely go higher in a redraft.<\/p>\n
Ron Holland, Detroit Pistons | ACTUAL: 5 \u2014 Rough rookie season, and I think he\u2019s likely to lose playing time to better teammates.<\/p>\n
Ja\u2019Kobe Walter, Toronto Raptors | ACTUAL: 19<\/p>\n
Let me know what you think in the comments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Redrafts are an interesting and useful exercise when assessing an NBA draft class. The basic question is simple:…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":293768,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[1262,4008,979,208,7,2644,329,1250,188,1256,974,164,1255,2597,6679,1251,6333,150,973,177,189,6,12,470,207,472,471,1102,4909,474,930,476,427,468,1259,1246,1083],"class_list":{"0":"post-293767","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nba-draft","8":"tag-adem-bona","9":"tag-aj-johnson","10":"tag-alex-sarr","11":"tag-atlanta-hawks","12":"tag-basketball","13":"tag-bub-carrington","14":"tag-chicago-bulls","15":"tag-dalton-knecht","16":"tag-detroit-pistons","17":"tag-dillon-jones","18":"tag-donovan-clingan","19":"tag-golden-state-warriors","20":"tag-jared-mccain","21":"tag-jaylen-wells","22":"tag-justin-edwards","23":"tag-kyle-filipowski","24":"tag-kyshawn-george","25":"tag-los-angeles-lakers","26":"tag-matas-buzelis","27":"tag-memphis-grizzlies","28":"tag-miami-heat","29":"tag-nba","30":"tag-nba-draft","31":"tag-new-orleans-pelicans","32":"tag-philadelphia-76ers","33":"tag-phoenix-suns","34":"tag-portland-trail-blazers","35":"tag-quinten-post","36":"tag-ryan-dunn","37":"tag-san-antonio-spurs","38":"tag-stephon-castle","39":"tag-toronto-raptors","40":"tag-utah-jazz","41":"tag-washington-wizards","42":"tag-yves-missi","43":"tag-zaccharie-risacher","44":"tag-zach-edey"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/293767","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=293767"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/293767\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/293768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=293767"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=293767"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=293767"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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