SALT LAKE CITY \u2013 Welcome to the Utah Jazz mailbag, where this week, we explore the star potential of rookie Ace Bailey.<\/p>\n
Each week, we will send out a prompt on\u00a0X<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0BlueSky<\/a>\u00a0asking for the questions you have about the Jazz.<\/p>\n Then, we\u2019ll respond to as many as we can in that week\u2019s Jazz mailbag in the Jazz Notes podcast.<\/p>\n Jazz Mailbag: Can Ace Bailey Become A Star?<\/p>\n How do you feel about podcast are saying that Ace Bailey isn\u2019t a star. Why do you think they say that and what is the flipside of him being a star? What are his tools?<\/p>\n \u2014 Aleks Atwood (@AtwoodAlek60606) December 15, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Question: How do you feel about podcasts saying that Ace Bailey isn\u2019t a star? Why do you think they say that and what is the flipside of him being a star? What are his tools?<\/p>\n Answer: First and foremost, I support fans and analysts having a wide range of opinions; groupthink harms the development of public opinion.<\/p>\n With that said, I should note that in the NBA, the safest prediction is that (insert almost any young player\u2019s name) won\u2019t become a star.<\/p>\n The reality is simple: very few NBA players reach star status. Injuries, play style, and elite competition make it extremely difficult for any young player to rise above his peers, so betting on stardom is usually a fool\u2019s errand.<\/p>\n Jazz Mailbag: What To Make Of Will Hardy\u2019s Viral Rant?<\/a><\/p>\n Still, in the spirit of the question, let\u2019s examine what Ace Bailey has done through his first 25 games and what that might mean for his future.<\/p>\n We can start with a basic search: teenagers who, over their first 25 games, matched Bailey\u2019s current averages\u2014at least 10.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while shooting 43 percent from the field and 35 percent from three, with at least 10 three\u2011point attempts during that stretch.<\/p>\n Since 1975, only five players have met those marks, including Bailey.<\/p>\n Two of them, LaMelo Ball and Kyrie Irving, became stars. Former Jazzman Collin Sexton developed into a solid NBA role player.<\/p>\n The other two are Bailey and current New Orleans Pelicans rookie Jeremiah Fears.<\/p>\n THAT\u2019S how you start a game @AiriousB<\/a> \ud83d\ude31 pic.twitter.com\/yOeb8kXIhx<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) December 16, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n This specific query may look like cherry\u2011picking, but it\u2019s actually a straightforward comparison of points, rebounds, and assists with a reasonable expectation of shooting efficiency.<\/p>\n Now, I also rely on a more rudimentary system for evaluating a rookie\u2019s potential. My rule of thumb: during a player\u2019s first year, his best game usually gives you a realistic sense of his potential ceiling.<\/p>\n That doesn\u2019t mean he\u2019ll reach that ceiling consistently, but it does show what he\u2019s capable of.<\/p>\n Using that rule\u2014and acknowledging we only have 25 games\u2014I think Bailey has shown multiple examples of star upside, particularly in his three games with at least 20 points.<\/p>\n Ace Bailey in the win over the Pacers:<\/p>\n 20 PTS (career high) | 4 REB | 1 AST | 4\/8 3PT | 7\/13 FG | +9<\/p>\n All net on his jumpers \ud83c\udfaf\ud83d\udd25<\/p>\n Smooth handle, confident pull-up, and elite shot-making for his size. pic.twitter.com\/w494yRwbCx<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 NBASTATS (@NBA_STATS_X) November 12, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Here\u2019s a list of rookie teenagers who scored 20 points at least three times in their first 25 games over the last decade:<\/p>\n LaMelo Ball, Paolo Banchero, RJ Barrett, Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Green, Scoot Henderson, Tyler Herro, Jaren Jackson Jr., Kevin Knox, Jamal Murray, Jahlil Okafor, Collin Sexton, Dennis Smith Jr., Jabari Smith Jr., Victor Wembanyama, and Coby White.<\/p>\n Among those 17 players, seven are already All\u2011Stars, four are still too early to judge, three became solid\u2011to\u2011high\u2011level starters, and three are generally considered busts.<\/p>\n So what do these two (admittedly flawed) searches tell us?<\/p>\n First, several of the best teenage players in NBA history\u2014Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett\u2014don\u2019t show up anywhere in these filters.<\/p>\n Second, among the players who do show up, roughly half became stars and half did not.<\/p>\n In short, early\u2011career production\u2014especially during the first 25 games\u2014rarely offers a clear correlation to a player\u2019s long\u2011term trajectory, good or bad.<\/p>\n For now, Bailey has shown he\u2019s a gifted shooter with excellent physical tools and a better\u2011than\u2011advertised basketball IQ. He still needs to improve his finishing at the rim, ball-handling, and defensive awareness.<\/p>\n Will he become a star? I don\u2019t know\u2014and anyone claiming they can predict his future is lying.<\/p>\n Want to ask questions in next week\u2019s Jazz mailbag? Follow us at\u00a0@benshoops<\/a>.<\/p>\n Are you on Threads yet? Let\u2019s connect, give us a follow\u00a0@kslsports<\/a>.<\/p>\n Download the new & improved KSL Sports app from Utah\u2019s sports leader. You can stream live radio, video and stay up to date on all of your favorite teams.<\/a><\/p>\n Ben Anderson is the author of the Jazz Mailbag, a Utah Jazz insider for KSL Sports, the author of the Jazz Mailbag, and the co-host of Jake and Ben from 10-12p with Jake Scott on\u00a0<\/a>97.5 The KSL Sports Zone<\/a>. Find Ben on Twitter at\u00a0<\/a>@BensHoops,<\/a>\u00a0on Instagram\u00a0<\/a>@BensHoops,<\/a>\u00a0or on\u00a0BlueSky<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n