{"id":478649,"date":"2025-12-17T11:42:26","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T11:42:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/478649\/"},"modified":"2025-12-17T11:42:26","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T11:42:26","slug":"the-math-behind-devin-bookers-uneasy-relationship-with-the-three-ball","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/478649\/","title":{"rendered":"The math behind Devin Booker\u2019s uneasy relationship with the three-ball"},"content":{"rendered":"

There always seemed to be a guitar living in my garage. I\u2019ve never learned how to play it, however. Maybe I never had the patience. Maybe my left hand never figured out what it was supposed to do. No matter how hard I tried, I could not string together a few clean chords. Turns out my fingers are better suited for typing words than playing songs.<\/p>\n

So why bring up my failed musical career and my lifelong inability to play \u2018Mama Tried\u2019 by Merle Haggard? Because that same disconnect shows up when you watch Devin Booker shoot the three-ball right now. I am being a little facetious, but the point stands. It has been a rough start from beyond the arc for Booker this season, and the numbers back it up.<\/p>\n

Overall, Booker is 39-of-129 from deep this season. He\u2019s hit one three-pointer in the month of December (granted, he\u2019s played in just 2 games this month). That\u2019s 30.2% on the year, which is a career low. He\u2019s making 1.7 per night on 5.6 attempts.<\/p>\n

Out of 103 NBA players who attempt at least five threes per game, Booker ranks 95th. The corner numbers look better on paper, 36.4%, but the volume is almost nonexistent. He has taken only 11 corner threes all season and is 4-of-11 overall. All of that success has come from the right corner, where he is 4-of-9. From the left corner, he is 0-of-2.<\/p>\n

That leaves the bulk of his damage, or lack of it, above the break. On those looks, Booker is shooting 29.9%, going 35-of-117. Among the 46 players who have taken at least 117 above-the-break threes, Booker ranks second to last. The only player below him is LaMelo Ball, who sits at 26.3%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

When you look at Booker\u2019s mid-range game, the volume is elite. Only five players in the entire league have taken more shots from that area (Brandon Ingram, DeMar DeRozan, Jaylen Brown, Shai Gilgeous Alexander, and Kevin Durant). Booker has gone 49-of-104, good for 47.1%. Among players who have taken at least 80 mid-range shots, that efficiency ranks 7th in the NBA.<\/p>\n

31.5% of Booker\u2019s shot diet is coming from beyond the arc, a noticeable drop from last season\u2019s career high of 38.8%, when he hit 33.2% of his threes. In many ways, this looks like a return to the mean. His three-point rate was 32.0% in 2023\u201324 and 29.6% in 2022\u201323. Across those two seasons, he shot a combined 35.8% from deep, which lines up closely with his career average of 35.2%.<\/p>\n

Booker is going to keep taking threes, and the hope is that the percentages drift back toward the mean. Because nights like Sunday, when he went 0-of-5 from deep, are killers. That is the swing point. It is the difference between being a lock as a \u2018perennial All-Star\u2019 and sliding into the \u2018sometimes All-Star\u2019 conversation. In today\u2019s NBA, you have to consistently knock down the three-ball. There is no way around it.<\/p>\n

There is no doubt he works on the shot. You can see that. Yet for whatever reason, moving five feet back from his mid-range comfort zone has always been an area where he has hovered around average. This season, it has dipped below that line. He is still going to get those looks, and I am fine with a 31.5% shot diet from beyond the arc. The bet is simple. Keep taking them and trust that they start to fall.<\/p>\n

No one can steer him right, but I\u2019m sure mama tried.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There always seemed to be a guitar living in my garage. I\u2019ve never learned how to play it,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":478650,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3791],"tags":[7,6,2065,472,4045,604,4147],"class_list":{"0":"post-478649","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-phoenix-suns","8":"tag-basketball","9":"tag-nba","10":"tag-phoenix","11":"tag-phoenix-suns","12":"tag-phoenixsuns","13":"tag-suns","14":"tag-suns-analysis"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/115734730944620130","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=478649"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478649\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/478650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=478649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=478649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=478649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}