![\"The](\"https:\/\/platform.bulletsforever.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/52\/2026\/01\/gettyimages-2254524246.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe Washington Wizards traded CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert to the Atlanta Hawks for guard Trae Young. NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n
At age 27, and now in his eighth season, Young has been a high-usage offensive engine and elite playmaker. His efficiency waxes and wanes \u2014 he takes shots like one of the game\u2019s best shooters but doesn\u2019t make them at a commensurate level, and his superb passing is somewhat offset by his many turnovers.<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re detecting some skepticism from the above passages, you\u2019re right! At full health, Young has been among the game\u2019s worst on-ball defenders. His age, coupled with his lack of size and strength, suggests he\u2019s not making a big leap on that end.<\/p>\n
While 27 is right around the average league age, and the Conventional Wisdom (expressed by seemingly everyone I\u2019ve heard talk about the deal) is that he\u2019s in his prime, players like Young tend to peak earlier and decline faster. My numbers indicate Young\u2019s career trajectory fits this familiar pattern. Below is his progression in my Player Production Average metric (PPA is an all-around production metric I developed that weighs the things players do to help teams win against things they do that hurt. PPA is pace neutral, and includes accounting for defense, position and role. In PPA, average is 100 and higher is better.)<\/p>\n
2018-19: 112 \u2014 good for a 2o-year-old rookie2019-20: 165 (age 21)2020-21: 160 (age 22)2021-22: 195 (age 23) \u2014 third-team All-NBA honors2022-23: 148 (age 24)2023-24: 140 (age 25)2024-25: 131 (age 26)2025-26: 143 (age 27)<\/p>\n
This season, he\u2019s shot poorly \u2014 eFG% is just 48.1%, and he\u2019s hitting a career worst 30.5% from three-point range. His usage is at a career low 28.7%, and his offensive efficiency is at a career-best 121 (about +5 per 100 possessions relative to league average). The overall efficiency is up despite the shooting because of his ability to get to the free throw line where he rarely misses, bountiful assists, and career-low turnovers (per possession).<\/p>\n
His defense is atrocious again. The Hawks this season have been more than 14 points per 100 possessions worse on that end when Young has been in the game.<\/p>\n
One thing Wizards fans may enjoy \u2014 and Brian Keefe and the coaching staff will love \u2014 is that Young plays fast. Atlanta played at a pace of 107.7 possessions per 48 minutes with Young on the floor this season \u2014 that would be number one in the league by a wide margin. The Wizards have been slowing down lately. Young should reverse that when he\u2019s able to play.<\/p>\n
The Wizards gave up little to acquire Young. The 34-year-old McCollum is a fine player and a one-year rental. They acquired him to provide veteran leadership and to (hopefully) flip his expiring contract for another asset. It\u2019s fair to say he contributed in both areas.<\/p>\n
Kispert is another fine player in the right role, though far from indispensable. Even showing signs of decline, Young is the best player in the deal.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s interesting to consider that the team\u2019s current management traded Bradley Beal for Jordan Poole and draft assets. They swapped Poole for McCollum, and McCollum and Kispert for Young. There\u2019s an old internet story about a guy who started with a novelty paper clip and made some trades to end up with a house. This sequence is akin to starting with a red novelty paper clip and making a series of trades to end up with a blue novelty paper clip.<\/p>\n
What matters next is properly valuing this new paper clip. Which is to say, even a 140ish PPA would improve Washington\u2019s backcourt production. Young could also pay dividends by boosting the efficiency of players like Alex Sarr and Bilal Coulibaly with his passing, driving, ability to draw fouls, and presence as a focal point for opposing defenses.<\/p>\n
If Young is somehow able to roll back the clock and generate production in the 160s, so much the better. Either way, he\u2019s likely to be Washington\u2019s most productive guard since the days of John Wall and Beal. Low bar, but still.<\/p>\n
One nice feature of making the move now is that Young\u2019s under contract next season. He\u2019s eligible for an extension, but media reports indicate the Wizards are in no rush to begin negotiations. That would be smart \u2014 as noted, Young\u2019s overall performance has slipped considerably from his All-NBA season, and his defense will continue to be a problem as he ages.<\/p>\n
He theoretically could commit to work in the weight room to improve his strength and heft, though transforming his body at age 27+ is something that needs to be seen, not talked about.<\/p>\n
That said, a 140-150 PPA-level guard who\u2019s a high-level playmaker, long-distance shooting threat, and foul grifter could have real value to a good team at the right price. That \u201cright price\u201d won\u2019t be the maximum. That could be disappointing to Young, but it\u2019s unlikely (at least in my evaluation) he\u2019ll get offers at that level if he chooses to become a free agent.<\/p>\n
Key for the Wizards will be negotiating a deal that makes sense. When this ownership group faced similar contract situations with Wall and Beal \u2014 very good (though not elite) guards of a type that tends to age poorly \u2014 they immediately offered everything they possibly could and begged them to stay. Hopefully the team\u2019s newer leadership group will take the route of working out a deal that pays Young fairly without crippling the team\u2019s cap sheet.<\/p>\n
Overall, this is a solid C+ move for the Wizards. They\u2019ll let Young take his time recovering from a quad contusion that caused him to miss Atlanta\u2019s past six games, and sit him regularly the rest of the season to preserve his health and stay in the bottom eight and keep their first round pick this year. The plan will be to add another high draft pick and perhaps a free agent or two to strengthen the roster and begin serious competition in the 2026-27 season.<\/p>\n
The grade could improve if Keefe and the coaching staff are able to harness what Young does well into the team\u2019s system, if Young is able to at least maintain his level of production, and if the team is able to secure him to a reasonable contract \u2014 or replace him using the cap space he\u2019ll leave behind if they part ways.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Wizards lost to the Philadelphia 76ers last night, which was immediately superseded in impact by news of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":508969,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3780],"tags":[7,6,682,468,3920,3892,683],"class_list":{"0":"post-525137","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-washington-wizards","8":"tag-basketball","9":"tag-nba","10":"tag-washington","11":"tag-washington-wizards","12":"tag-washington-wizards-statistical-analysis","13":"tag-washingtonwizards","14":"tag-wizards"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/115860154923256788","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525137","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=525137"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525137\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/508969"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=525137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=525137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=525137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}