{"id":541070,"date":"2026-01-16T17:53:18","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T17:53:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/541070\/"},"modified":"2026-01-16T17:53:18","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T17:53:18","slug":"ncaa-mens-basketball-bracketology-2026-two-new-no-1-seeds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/541070\/","title":{"rendered":"NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Bracketology 2026: Two New No. 1 Seeds"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since Tuesday\u2019s projection<\/a>, the number of undefeated teams has dropped from five to three, with Iowa State and Vanderbilt falling for the first time this season. That\u2019s led to a shakeup on the top line for today, with UConn and Duke replacing the Cyclones and Purdue as No. 1 seeds alongside No. 1 overall Arizona (still undefeated) and Michigan. The other two remaining undefeateds alongside the Big 12-leading Wildcats are second-seeded Nebraska and MAC leaders Miami (Ohio), who is on seed line 12.<\/p>\n

The Wolverines, Cyclones, and Commodores are just three of the 12 one-loss teams in Division I men\u2019s basketball heading into the weekend. All of them are currently in the projected field.<\/p>\n

After today\u2019s full bracket, I\u2019ll have a rundown of the key games to watch this weekend, with Saturday being an exceptionally busy day (and Monday having little on the schedule, thanks in no small part to the CFP National Championship game).<\/p>\n

NOTE: Changes since Tuesday\u2019s projection<\/a> are noted with (\u2605) for new entrants, (\u2b06\ufe0f) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (\u2b07\ufe0f) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.<\/p>\n

(1) West (San Jos\u00e9, Thurs.\/Sat.)<\/p>\n

(1) Arizona (Big 12)
\u2605(16) Vermont (AE)<\/p>\n

(8) Wisconsin
(9) Texas A&M<\/p>\n

\u2b06\ufe0f(5) Villanova
(12) Utah Valley (WAC)<\/p>\n

(4) Texas Tech
\u2605(13) Hawai\u2019i (Big West)<\/p>\n

\u2b06\ufe0f(6) Clemson
\u2605(11) Missouri\/Creighton<\/p>\n

(3) Michigan State
\u2605(14) Furman (SoCon)<\/p>\n

\u2b06\ufe0f(7) UCF
(10) Miami (Fla.)<\/p>\n

(2) Vanderbilt (SEC)
(15) LIU (NEC)<\/p>\n

(4) South (Houston, Thurs.\/Sat.)<\/p>\n

\u2b06\ufe0f(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) Dartmouth (Ivy)<\/p>\n

\u2b07\ufe0f(8) Auburn
\u2b06\ufe0f(9) TCU<\/p>\n

\u2b06\ufe0f(5) Arkansas
\u2b07\ufe0f(12) Iowa\/Baylor<\/p>\n

(4) Illinois
\u2b06\ufe0f(13) Wright State (Horizon)<\/p>\n

(6) SMU
(11) Murray State (MVC)<\/p>\n

(3) BYU
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)<\/p>\n

Oklahoma City (Thurs.\/Sat.)<\/p>\n

(7) Saint Mary\u2019s
(10) Kentucky<\/p>\n

(2) Nebraska (Big Ten)
\u2605(15) Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)<\/p>\n

(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri.\/Sun.)<\/p>\n

(1) Michigan
(16) Prairie View (SWAC)\/NC Central (MEAC)<\/p>\n

\u2b06\ufe0f(8) Seton Hall
\u2b07\ufe0f(9) Louisville<\/p>\n

(5) Kansas
(12) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)<\/p>\n

(4) Alabama
(13) UNCW (CAA)<\/p>\n

(6) Utah State (MW)
(11) George Mason (A 10)<\/p>\n

(3) Gonzaga (WCC)
\u2605(14) Winthrop (Big South)<\/p>\n

\u2b06\ufe0f(7) St. John\u2019s
\u2b06\ufe0f(10) Texas<\/p>\n

\u2b07\ufe0f(2) Iowa State
\u2b07\ufe0f(15) Austin Peay (ASUN)<\/p>\n

(3) East (Washington, D.C., Fri.\/Sun.)<\/p>\n

\u2b06\ufe0f(1) UConn (Big East)
\u2605(16) Colgate (Patriot)\/Saint Peter\u2019s (MAAC)<\/p>\n

(8) Saint Louis
\u2b06\ufe0f(9) USC<\/p>\n

\u2b06\ufe0f(5) Virginia
(12) Liberty (CUSA)<\/p>\n

(4) Florida
\u2605(13) Florida Atlantic (AC)<\/p>\n

Oklahoma City (Thurs.\/Sat.)<\/p>\n

\u2b07\ufe0f(6) Tennessee
(11) McNeese (Southland)<\/p>\n

(3) Houston
\u2b06\ufe0f(14) Portland State (Big Sky)<\/p>\n

\u2b07\ufe0f(7) North Carolina
\u2b07\ufe0f(10) Georgia<\/p>\n

\u2b07\ufe0f2) Purdue
\u2b07\ufe0f(15) UT Martin (OVC)<\/p>\n

Last Four Byes: Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, Miami (Fla.)
Last Four IN: Missouri, Iowa, Creighton, Baylor
First Four OUT: UCLA, NC State, Indiana, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Akron, New Mexico, Santa Clara, VCU<\/p>\n

ARRIVALS (8): Colgate (Patriot), Florida Atlantic (AC), Furman (SoCon), Georgia Southern (Sun Belt), Missouri, Saint Peter\u2019s (MAAC), Vermont (AE), Winthrop (Big South)<\/p>\n

DEPARTURES: ETSU (SoCon), High Point (Big South), Merrimack (MAAC), Navy (Patriot), NC State, Southern Miss (Sun Belt), Tulane (AC), UMass Lowell (AE)<\/p>\n

SEC (11): Vanderbilt (auto bid), Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Auburn, Texas A&M, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, Missouri (First Four)<\/p>\n

Big 12 (9): Arizona (auto bid), Iowa State, BYU, Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, UCF, TCU, Baylor (First Four)<\/p>\n

Big Ten (8): Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska (auto bid), Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, USC, Iowa (First Four)<\/p>\n

ACC (7): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, Clemson, SMU, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami (Fla.)<\/p>\n

Big East (5): UConn (auto bid), Villanova, St. John\u2019s, Seton Hall, Creighton (First Four)<\/p>\n

Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, George Mason (auto bid)<\/p>\n

WCC (2): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary\u2019s<\/p>\n

My next update will come on Tuesday. In the meantime, here are some games to check out.<\/p>\n

Creighton at Providence (Friday, 6:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
Baylor at Kansas (Friday, 8, Fox)<\/p>\n

A pair of First Four teams hit the road, with the Bears having the stiffer challenge, given what the Jayhawks\u2014knocking on the door of a 4 seed\u2014did to Iowa State midweek.<\/p>\n

UConn at Georgetown (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, Fox)
Florida at Vanderbilt (Saturday, 2, ESPN)
Iowa State at Cincinnati (Saturday, 2, Peacock<\/a> ($)\/NBCSN)
Michigan at Oregon (Saturday, 3:30, NBC)
Arizona at UCF (Saturday, 4, ESPN)
Nebraska at Northwestern (Saturday, 4, BTN)
Michigan State at Washington (Saturday, 6, BTN)
Duke at Stanford (Saturday, 6, ACCN)
Purdue at USC (Saturday, 6, Peacock<\/a> ($)\/NBCSN)
BYU at Texas Tech (Saturday, 8, ESPN)
Gonzaga at Seattle (Saturday, 10, KHQ\/ESPN+<\/a> ($))
Arizona State at Houston (Sunday, 6:30, ESPN)<\/p>\n

There are a whole lot of challenges for the teams fighting for one of the four No. 1 seed spots\u2014a race that\u2019s still very much crowded thanks to the fact there are 15 teams with fewer than two losses, and several 2+ loss teams who will have a case when the lead pack inevitably starts dropping back.<\/p>\n

Selfishly, I will be paying attention to Florida\u2019s trip to Memorial Gym, where the Gators last won in 2022. It\u2019s the lone meeting between Vanderbilt and 2025\u2019s National Champs, and it might have oversized bearing on who earns the No. 1 seed for the SEC Tournament in March.<\/p>\n

Kentucky at Tennessee (Saturday, 12, ESPN)
Virginia at SMU (Saturday, 12, ESPN2)
Miami at Clemson (Saturday, 2:15, CW)
Arkansas at Georgia (Saturday, 4, ESPN2)
North Carolina at Cal (Saturday, 4, ACCN)
Texas A&M at Texas (Saturday, 6, ESPN)
South Carolina at Auburn (Saturday, 6, SECN)
Louisville at Pitt (Saturday, 8, ESPN2)
St. John\u2019s at Villanova (Saturday, 8, Peacock<\/a> ($)\/NBCSN)<\/p>\n

There are plenty of intriguing matchups for teams in the middle of the at-large pool, though Tennessee, Virginia, Clemson, and Arkansas are in decent position to challenge for a protected seed. Louisville, meanwhile, has a profile that\u2019s starting to show some warts given the Cards\u2019 recent struggle.<\/p>\n

UCLA at Ohio State (Saturday, 1, CBS)
Iowa at Indiana (Saturday, 2, Fox)
Missouri at LSU (Saturday, 3:30, SECN)
Saint Mary\u2019s at Santa Clara (Saturday, 7, ESPN+<\/a> ($))
New Mexico at San Diego State (Saturday, 8, CBSSN)<\/p>\n

A trio of power conference bubble games, with Missouri the lone new at-large in the field, thanks to wins over Florida and Auburn, and two key games for non-power leagues hoping to earn multiple bids. Saint Mary\u2019s is safely in right now, but the Gaels\u2019 Bay Area rivals really need a quality win (Xavier doesn\u2019t count) if they want to be a third WCC bid. In the Mountain West, both the Lobos and Aztecs are chasing Utah State for the conference lead.<\/p>\n

Buffalo at Miami (Ohio) (Saturday, 1, ESPN+<\/a> ($))
Utah State at Grand Canyon (Saturday, 2:30, FS1)
Richmond at Saint Louis (Saturday, 4, CBSSN)
UT Arlington at Utah Valley (Saturday, 4, ESPN+<\/a> ($))
Saint Joseph\u2019s at VCU (Monday, 3, CBSSN)
George Washington at George Mason (Monday, 5, CBSSN)<\/p>\n

Speaking of the Aggies, they travel to Phoenix to take on the Lopes, who are in the Mountain West now, in case you didn\u2019t realize it. There are a trio of Atlantic 10 matchups (two on Monday) that might help determine that conference\u2019s multi-bid status. Plus, the undefeated RedHawks host a bad Bulls squad, while the top two in the WAC meet in Orem.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Since Tuesday\u2019s projection, the number of undefeated teams has dropped from five to three, with Iowa State and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":541071,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3723],"tags":[74423,7,73665,217,231,772,1544],"class_list":{"0":"post-541070","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-basketball","8":"tag-2026-bracket-projections","9":"tag-basketball","10":"tag-bracket-projections","11":"tag-college-basketball","12":"tag-ncaa","13":"tag-ncaa-basketball","14":"tag-ncaab"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/115906059033991874","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/541070","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=541070"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/541070\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/541071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=541070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=541070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=541070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}