![\"Drives](\"https:\/\/platform.blazersedge.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/34\/2026\/01\/optimal_threshold_viz.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100\")
<\/a><\/p>\nDrives per game vs. shooting fouls drawn for forwards with >29 MPG. Stats per NBA.com and Cleaning The Glass.<\/p>\n
This shows a relatively stable correlation between drives per game and shooting fouls drawn. Deni\u2019s position, though seemingly an outlier, doesn\u2019t actually fall beyond the expected number of calls he should receive given his insane rate of drives per game. The stats tell us that drives are a predictor, but perhaps not the most effective one. This is where Avdija\u2019s \u201cgrifting\u201d comes into play.<\/p>\n
(Jimmy Butler is highlighted because phew, he is a skilled at getting calls. Off-ball actions and cuts don\u2019t count for \u201cdrives per game,\u201d so the Warriors offense \u2014 and some elite grifting \u2014 likely account for this massive disconnect)<\/p>\n
Avdija seeks out body contact against his opponents. This can be by way of plowing directly into his opposition, or lowering his hands and performing a rip-through like motion, among other tricks. His proclivity to seek out contact creates a great number of fouls. Now, to the haters\u2019 credit, sometimes, the body contact Avdija creates, and receives foul calls for, could certainly be considered marginal (whatever that means, nowadays). However, the past few years have clearly demonstrated the NBA\u2019s preference for offenses. Avdija is leveraging the attitude of the league and its officiating to create advantages, similar to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, and other offensive juggernauts. Avdija would not be a foul-baiter if the referees did not explicitly reward his playstyle.<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t Hate The Player, Hate the Game<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, the variability in the game of basketball means stats can only predict so much. Drives per game don\u2019t represent the best correlate to foul calls, but neither does any other stat that I tested. Perhaps someone with more than an A-minus in their one and only statistics course can come in and correct the mathematics here. However, I think the truth is a lot more obvious: Avdija\u2019s immense volume of drives and expansive bag of downhill tricks allows him to generate more fouls than the typical player. Did I mention that he is in the 100th percentile for usage rate among forwards? All of these factors contribute to a lot of free throws, but not more than should be expected given the context. Rather than channel hate and anger towards Avdija, the masses must recognize that this is the type of play that the league has incentivized for multiple seasons: Offense above all else. As long as the rules that allow offenses to continue to expand \u2013 and gradually evict defensive competitiveness \u2013 players will continue to be rewarded for barrelling head-first into defenders.<\/p>\n
Avdija is not an outlier, rather, he has leveraged the current state of the game to his advantage. We would all be better off appreciating his exceptional talent, rather than degrading him for the league\u2019s larger failure of minimizing defense.<\/p>\n
We can also do a multi-variable regression analysis, comparing usage rate against our other predictors. The findings aren\u2019t significantly more telling, though it does improve our correlation slightly.<\/p>\n