{"id":545006,"date":"2026-01-18T17:04:23","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T17:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/545006\/"},"modified":"2026-01-18T17:04:23","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T17:04:23","slug":"wizards-get-rebuilding-loss-to-the-denver-nuggets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/545006\/","title":{"rendered":"Wizards Get Rebuilding Loss to the Denver Nuggets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 _16w9vov6 _16w9vov5 ls9zuh1\">Last night\u2019s loss to the Denver Nuggets felt more like \u201crebuilding\u201d than \u201ctanking.\u201d The Wizards played a flawed game loaded with mistakes and miscues, and were competitive throughout, carrying a small lead into the fourth quarter and forcing fourth quarter heroics from Jamal Murray and Tim Hardaway Jr. to ultimately lose.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Facing a team devoid of centers (Nikola Jokic and former Wizards great Jonas Valanciunas were both out with injuries), Washington dominated inside \u2014 +10 on the boards, 27-4 advantage on second chance points, and outscoring Denver 66-50 in the paint.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.bulletsforever.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/52\/2026\/01\/gettyimages-2256266534.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0,100,100\" data-pswp-height=\"3621\" data-pswp-width=\"5432\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"Another strong game from Wizards forward Justin Champagnie \u2014 13 points, 9 rebounds in the team\u2019s loss to the Denver Nuggets.\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/gettyimages-2256266534.jpg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Another strong game from Wizards forward Justin Champagnie \u2014 13 points, 9 rebounds in the team\u2019s loss to the Denver Nuggets. Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">They lost because of an array of defensive breakdowns, and some elite shotmaking from Murray.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">A few notes I took during the game:<\/p>\n<p>Denver won the opening tip and seconds later, Jalen Pickett walked into a wide open three. What happened? The Wizards didn\u2019t match up properly. Two defenders were on Peyton Watson, and Tre Johnson (who was the closest defender) watched instead of sprinting into a closeout.In the first half, Wizards defenders repeatedly sagged into the lane off Murray. While the team\u2019s defensive priority is protecting the paint, there is no way \u2014 none \u2014 that leaving Murray undefended in the corner was part of the defensive game plan. They stopped helping off him in the second half.Washington\u2019s transition defense was poor for a few reasons. First, not sprinting back. Second, not matching up in ways that make sense. Third, ball watching and failing to notice opposing players positioning themselves for shots.One Nuggets fast break got a transition corner three from Hardaway. Jamir Watkins got back but ball watched \u2014 failing to notice Hardaway running behind him to the corner. Watkins first noticed Hardaway when the ball swung to the man above the break, who Watkins picked up. When the pass went to the corner, Watkins sprinted to close out but was too late. Meanwhile, Marvin Bagley III and Justin Champagnie jogged back to the defensive end and never got involved in the play.In the second quarter, Champagnie missed a three. While he watched the ball in flight, Bruce Brown (who\u2019d closed out) ran to the offensive end. Bagley, Bub Carrington, and Tre Johnson all jogged back, but all three stopped out top and none of them noticed Brown behind them.In the third quarter, Khris Middleton stopped playing to complain about a foul non-call. Meanwhile, his man got a wide open corner three in transition, which he (fortunately for Washington) missed.The Wizards defensive scheme uses some of the \u201cpre-helping\u201d concepts pioneered by the Oklahoma City Thunder and being used by more teams around the league. Basically, the weakside \u201clow man\u201d comes halfway into the lane to be in position to help if there\u2019s a drive. It\u2019s generally a good method of complicating penetration and reducing the number and quality of opponent at-rim attempts. The drawback can be giving up open threes.One play made me laugh: Middleton was low man. He pre-helped on a Murray drive against Alex Sarr, who\u2019d picked him up on a switch. Middleton came all the way across the lane and was (theoretically) in position to cut Murray off. Unfortunately, Middleton\u2019s lack of mobility meant that Murray still got all the way to the rim \u2014 he made a nice pass to Spencer Jones, who\u2019d made a cut behind the help\u2026which Carrington (who had weakside zone responsibility) missed because he was ball watching.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">I know the preceding is a recitation of woes, but this game wasn\u2019t bad. They were competitive in ways they should have been based on who was missing from the opponent\u2019s lineup. They made mistakes early on and corrected them during the game. The scheme they\u2019re trying to execute is good. What I noticed as problems are pretty normal for young players and are correctable with experience and acceptance of coaching.<\/p>\n<p>Champagnie does a nice job of cutting to the rim when his man moves into a help position or turns his head.Strong offensive game from George \u2014 an efficient 29 points to go with 5 rebounds and 7 assists. He was credited with three blocks, though I do not think he played well defensively \u2014 he\u2019s guilty of ball watching, leaving his man to help when it\u2019s not necessary, and not matching up properly.Murray was the first guard in several weeks (at least) to figure out a counter to Sarr\u2019s chase down blocks when driving the switch. Instead of a more normal extension into a layup, Murray jumped straight up as he laid the ball in. Sarr crashed into him and it became a three-point play.Sarr did as well as any big man could be expected when switched onto Murray. He prevented penetration a couple timed, forced Murray into difficult shots at others, and even poked the ball loose once.Bagley had another strong game off the bench. I\u2019m curious to see Sarr and Bagley play together.With Bilal Coulibaly out, the Wizards had no strong point of attack defender.Abysmal game from Tre Johnson, who hit just 1-10 from the floor and missed all four of his three-point attempts. I didn\u2019t love his shot selection, which was heavy on runners and floaters, which tend to be low value shots. The one he made was runner.Aaron Gordon was two points from a triple-double. Filling in a center, he tallied 11 assists, including one pass that was Jokic-light \u2014 he caught the ball in the post and instantly spun and hit a shooter in the opposite corner \u2014 literally behind his head. There was no way he could see the man before he went into the pass. I call it \u201cJokic-light\u201d because Jokic would have made the same pass but no-look.Peyton Watson has been on a scoring binge with Jokic out. He has an impressive package of skills and the ability to make shots. His offensive efficiency would have gotten a solid boost if he\u2019d shot better than 4-8 from the free throw line.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball \u2014 shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The four factors are measured by:<\/p>\n<p>eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)TOV% (turnover percentage \u2014 turnovers divided by possessions)FTM\/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)FOUR FACTORSWIZARDSNUGGETSLGAVGeFG%51.6%61.2%54.4%OREB%33.3%11.4%26.2%TOV%10.9%11.8%12.8%FTM\/FGA0.1670.2000.211PACE10199.7ORTG114119115.7<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kevinbroom.com\/ppa\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">PPA<\/a> is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn\u2019t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">+PTS = \u201cPlus Points\u201d is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league \u2014 on average \u2014 would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Players are sorted by total production in the game.<\/p>\n<p>WIZARDSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+\/-Kyshawn George326714528.9%5.8243-6Justin Champagnie265511220.3%-0.41521Marvin Bagley III204214424.8%2.92002Khris Middleton275713122.1%1.9136-9Jamir Watkins21441934.9%1.7963Will Riley16349718.7%-1.2621Bub Carrington39828618.5%-4.520-6Alex Sarr286010224.0%-2.015-8Tre Johnson31655214.5%-6.0-78-8NUGGETSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+\/-Jamal Murray398312836.1%3.82725Tim Hardaway Jr.367513125.0%2.91500Aaron Gordon326811916.8%0.412514Spencer Jones29611806.1%2.490-6Jalen Pickett224710715.3%-0.61128Peyton Watson357410623.7%-1.7645Zeke Nnaji163412511.8%0.481-8Julian Strawther61206.5%-0.922Bruce Brown25528414.3%-2.4-3510<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Last night\u2019s loss to the Denver Nuggets felt more like \u201crebuilding\u201d than \u201ctanking.\u201d The Wizards played a flawed&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":545007,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3781],"tags":[7,301,187,3943,6,302,3920],"class_list":{"0":"post-545006","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-denver-nuggets","8":"tag-basketball","9":"tag-denver","10":"tag-denver-nuggets","11":"tag-denvernuggets","12":"tag-nba","13":"tag-nuggets","14":"tag-washington-wizards-statistical-analysis"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/115917191802643153","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=545006"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545006\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/545007"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=545006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=545006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=545006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}