![\"Washington](\"https:\/\/platform.bulletsforever.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/52\/2026\/01\/gettyimages-2256564366.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100\")
<\/a><\/p>\nWashington big man Alex Sarr is having a breakout season for the Wizards. NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n
As I\u2019ve written previously, scoring margin is the best measure of relative team strength. Adjusted for opponent quality, the Wizards are -10.8 per game this season. That\u2019s a whopping 2.6 points per game worse than the 29th ranked Sacramento Kings.<\/p>\n
Barring a complete second half meltdown, the Wizards are out of \u201cworst ever\u201d historical status. Their adjusted scoring margin is 11th worst all-time, which is an improvement from last season when they were third worst. Ever. They remain on course for the worst two-year run \u2014 at least in terms of scoring margin \u2014 in NBA history.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s where the Wizards currently rank in the various key stats of team strength (where they ranked at the last update, which was Jan. 13, is in parentheses):<\/p>\n
Offensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 28 (27)Defensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 29 (29)<\/p>\n
The departures of CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert have \u2014 at least temporarily \u2014 reduced Washington\u2019s offensive efficiency. Kispert\u2019s impact is less because he missed much of the season with injuries. Trading McCollum is more consequential because of his ability to create good shots and to make tough ones. Plus, his experience helped the team stay somewhat organized.<\/p>\n
With McCollum gone, the young guys have to figure things out on their own, which at this point is probably a good thing for their long-term development. Call it a short-term quarter step back in hopes of taking a couple giant steps forward.<\/p>\n
eFG%: 23 (21)Offensive Rebounding Percentage: 19 (20)Turnover Rate: 26 (26)Free Throws Made\/Field Goal Attempts: 27 (26)<\/p>\n
Since the McCollum trade, the Wizards have shot worse and committed more turnovers. They\u2019re also getting to the free throw line a bit less.<\/p>\n
eFG%: 22 (23)Defensive Rebounding Percentage: 30 (30)Turnover Rate: 28 (28)Free Throws Made\/Field Goal Attempts: 21 (15)<\/p>\n
They\u2019re still last in defensive rebounding, but the actual percentage has gone up to 71.0% \u2014 it was 70.0% just a few games ago. They\u2019re still almost two percentage points from 29th. As I wrote after a recent game, the defensive results aren\u2019t good, but the coaching staff is implementing a good defensive scheme, and we\u2019re seeing the predictable growing pains.<\/p>\n
Player Production Average<\/p>\n
Below is a table with updated results from the Player Production Average (PPA) metric so far this season. PPA is an overall rating metric I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and debits them for things that hurt the cause (missed shots, turnovers, fouls, ineffective defense). PPA is similar to other linear weight rating metrics such as John Hollinger\u2019s PER, David Berri\u2019s Wins Produced, Kevin Pelton\u2019s VORP, and the granddaddy of them all, Dave Heeren\u2019s TENDEX.<\/p>\n
PPA weighs a player\u2019s performance per possession against that of his competitors season by season. While PPA falls into the category of a linear weight metric, the values for statistical categories float a bit season-to-season based on league performance.<\/p>\n
PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a \u201cdegree of difficulty\u201d factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. Beginning with the 2019-20 season, I added a position\/role adjustment designed to reflect how roles and on-court positioning affect individual abilities to produce certain stats.<\/p>\n
on-court team defensive ratingpointsrebounds (offensive and defensive weighed differently)assistsstealsblocksshot attemptsturnoverspersonal foulsstartsminutes<\/p>\n
In the table below, I\u2019ve included each player\u2019s PPA last time, currently (through games played Jan. 19 \u2014 game 42), as well as games played and minutes per game. The Garbage Time Brigade has their own section.<\/p>\n
In the table below, LAST = the player\u2019s PPA when I last ran an update, which was through games played Jan. 7, 2026.<\/p>\n
PLAYERGAMESMPGLASTPPAAlex Sarr3327.8157145Marvin Bagley III3619.3108104Justin Champagnie4018.59996Kyshawn George3331.28994Bilal Coulibaly2526.68381Tre Johnson3524.77980Khris Middleton2924.38378Malaki Branham249.64256Bub Carrington4228.34751Cam Whitmore2116.94949Tristan Vukcevic3011.44346Will Riley3413.84334AJ Johnson237.1-7-13DEPARTEDGAMESMPGPPAPPACJ McCollum3530.9121121Corey Kispert1919.57878GTBGAMESMPGPPAPPAAnthony Gill193.85648Jamir Watkins1713.43729Sharife Cooper42.5-66-66<\/p>\n
Below is a table showing my picks right now for this year\u2019s All-Star game based on a mix of stats and watching too many games.<\/p>\n
EASTWESTGiannis AntetokounmpoShai Gilgeous-AlexanderDonovan MitchellNikola JokicTyrese MaxeyKawhi LeonardJalen DurenStephen CurryJalen JohnsonLuka DoncicMichael Porter Jr.Jamal MurrayCade CunninghamAnthony EdwardsJalen BrunsonVictor WembanyamaJaylen BrownChet HolmgrenJosh GiddeyLeBron JamesNorman PowellKevin DurantScottie BarnesDeni AvdijaI paid no attention to position because apparently All-Star has now joined All-NBA as positionless.I also paid no attention to the U.S. vs. International aspect of this year\u2019s festivities. On a quick eyeballing of the lists, I see at least eight international players, which is the minimum required.I\u2019m not sure if Deni Avdija will actually make the team. He\u2019s playing really well, and there are a lot of good vibes out there about him. In my view, he\u2019s in an arguable group with maybe 6-10 other guys.MVP is a two-man race, assuming Jokic can get to the stupid 65-game requirement. SGA\u2019s PPA is 299 (the only player to crack 300 was Stephen Curry, who did it once). Jokic is at 288. Giannis is third at 257.LeBron James isn\u2019t on my list because of his status as the game\u2019s elder statesman. His PPA is 182 this season, which is excellent. If I was to drop an old guy for someone playing a little better, it would be Kevin Durant.I wanted very much to find a spot for Jimmy Butler, who\u2019s having an excellent season, but I couldn\u2019t see giving two spots to the Golden State Warriors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The first half of the 2025-26 season is history, and the Wizards season has at times inspired hope,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":548966,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3780],"tags":[7,6,682,468,3920,3892,683],"class_list":{"0":"post-548965","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-washington-wizards","8":"tag-basketball","9":"tag-nba","10":"tag-washington","11":"tag-washington-wizards","12":"tag-washington-wizards-statistical-analysis","13":"tag-washingtonwizards","14":"tag-wizards"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/115927867334531205","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548965","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=548965"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548965\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/548966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=548965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=548965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=548965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}