We\u2019re still nearly two months from Selection Sunday, but with the No. 14 Virginia Cavaliers off this week ahead of Saturday\u2019s showdown with No. 22 North Carolina, it\u2019s a great time to take an extra-early look at UVA\u2019s resume and where they stand in the NCAA Tournament picture.<\/p>\n
Last time out, the \u2019Hoos capped off an excellent 2-0 week with a nail-biting 72-68 road win at SMU on Saturday, extending their winning streak to five games and earning another road victory over an upper-echelon team in the ACC after besting Louisville by nine points last Tuesday.<\/p>\n
The stellar week continued Virginia\u2019s rise in the AP Poll, where the \u2019Hoos checked in at No. 14 on Monday (their highest ranking since March of 2023), but it also has UVA\u2019s resume beginning to take the form of a highly seeded squad come Selection Sunday.<\/p>\n
In the computer metrics, Ryan Odom\u2019s \u2019Hoos currently sit at 14th both at KenPom and in the NET rankings, while they\u2019ve climbed all the way up to 8th in Bart Torvik\u2019s T-Rank (a system that puts more emphasis on recent performances).<\/p>\n
According to Torvik, UVA\u2019s recent stretch of dominance \u2014 which has included road wins over NC State, Louisville, and SMU, as well as a pair of routs of Cal and Stanford \u2014 has them performing as the nation\u2019s second-best team since January 1st. Dating back even further, behind a defense that has rapidly grown into one of the country\u2019s most lockdown units, the \u2019Hoos are college basketball\u2019s fourth-highest rated team since their Feast Week loss to Butler in the Greenbrier ballroom.<\/p>\n
Breaking things down even further, the \u2019Hoos are 4-1 against Quad 1 opponents, 4-1 against Quad 2 opponents, and 8-0 against all other competition. In Quad 1A opportunities (the most valuable games for a team\u2019s tournament resume), the \u2019Hoos have a sparkling 3-0 record and are tied for the fifth-most wins in such games.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s important to remember that the quadrants are both fluid and imperfect. A Quad 1 game today could be a Quad 2 game tomorrow (or vice versa), but day-to-day shifts in the NET rankings don\u2019t make a team\u2019s resume any more or less impressive.<\/p>\n
With that in mind, the \u2019Hoos have four important Quad 1 matchups remaining on their schedule based on Tuesday morning\u2019s NET rankings \u2014 vs. UNC this Saturday, vs. Ohio State in Nashville on Valentine\u2019s Day, vs. Miami on February 21st, and at Duke in Durham on February 28th.<\/p>\n
Additionally, Virginia fans should keep an eye on the performances of UNC, Miami, Butler, and Notre Dame down the stretch. Each of the four sits on the fence between being classified as Quad 1 and Quad 2 matchups, and although it\u2019s an imperfect system, the \u2019Hoos want as many games as possible to be classified as the former.<\/p>\n
So, what does all this mean? With conference play not even halfway in the books, not much, as plenty is sure to change in the coming months. But as of January 20th, it does mean that the \u2019Hoos are currently being projected as a four-seed in the NCAA Tournament according to Bracket Matrix (which averages 81 different \u2018bracketology\u2019 sources), and that they are one of the fastest-rising squads in the country.<\/p>\n
A four seed would be Virginia\u2019s highest since 2023, when the \u2019Hoos were upset by Furman in the opening round of the tournament. And many projections even have UVA creeping toward the three-line.<\/p>\n
But for now, the \u2019Hoos need to keep taking things one game at a time. Though it\u2019s fun to look at the projections, nothing is set in stone, especially with seven weeks until the start of postseason play.<\/p>\n