{"id":551043,"date":"2026-01-21T13:43:19","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T13:43:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/551043\/"},"modified":"2026-01-21T13:43:19","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T13:43:19","slug":"the-season-has-spiraled-out-of-control-heres-what-comes-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/551043\/","title":{"rendered":"The season has spiraled out of control \u2014 here\u2019s what comes next"},"content":{"rendered":"

A season for the Hawks that started with so much promise has quickly turned into a nightmare. I wrote last month that the season was close to being flushed down the drain for good if they didn\u2019t improve on three key areas<\/a>.<\/p>\n

They didn\u2019t improve on any of those three key areas.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s list off all of the things that have gone horribly wrong this year:<\/p>\n

Trae Young entered the season without a contract extension he desired<\/a>. Then he missed a month and a half of action with a knee injury suffered in the fifth game. And finally, the organization (with help from Young\u2019s agency<\/a>) decided the time was right to move on.<\/p>\n

Regardless of how you felt about Young, it was always going to be an extremely difficult pivot midseason when so many resources over so many years had gone into building around him.<\/p>\n

One extra note: the centerpiece of the Young trade to Washington is now public enemy number one to the fanbase after his last second gaff and general ball dominance. So, even the pivot has been fruitless.<\/p>\n

Kristaps Porzingis was confident preseason that his bout with post-viral syndrome<\/a>\/postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) was in the rearview mirror<\/a>. It was not<\/a>. Most recently, he\u2019s been out nursing an injury to his Achilles. To date, Porzingis has only played 413 total minutes and 17 games out of a possible 45. The all-in gamble on his health came up bust.Jalen Johnson\u2019s growing list of deficiencies on defense have been magnified with the absence of Porzingis. Has the tradeoff between his offensive growth for defensive regression been worth it? That\u2019s at least a valid question to ask for what this team needs.As an undersized 5, Onyeka Okongwu had begun to play the 4 part of the time \u2014 especially when sharing the floor with Porzingis. The plan was to make him a flexible third big man, splitting his time between both frontcourt positions while coming off the bench to limit his minutes.<\/p>\n

Instead, he\u2019s estimated to have played 95% of his minutes at center<\/a> (per basketball-reference), is posting by far a career-low offensive rebound rate, and has been subject to an atrocious -12 on-off +\/- per 100 possessions.<\/p>\n

The lineups he\u2019s been tasked to anchor defensively haven\u2019t help and neither has playing the 24th most minutes in the league this year, somehow just fourth (!) on the team<\/a>. The plus-minus metric to date is a statistical anomaly given his track record in previous seasons, but clearly his level of play has dropped.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s a genuinely impactful defender now, but Zaccharie Risacher didn\u2019t take the step forward offensively all of us had hoped. Not even close, in fact.Dyson Daniels, now the team\u2019s starting point guard who has admittedly come on offensively, hasn\u2019t made a three since December 14.<\/p>\n

With the exception of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, you can point to every one of the Hawks\u2019 top eight or nine players and argue that their impact has been levels below what was expected of them.<\/p>\n

The Hawks get out-physicaled (I don\u2019t care that it\u2019s not a word) on a nightly basis. They can\u2019t rebound. They can\u2019t even defend in transition despite being a shockingly bad offensive rebounding team<\/a>*.<\/p>\n

*Sidenote: often teams prioritize one of those areas over the other, but you really shouldn\u2019t be bad at both. Either send bodies to the glass or get back on defense. The Hawks, worryingly, do neither.<\/p>\n

The heavy minutes load on Johnson, Daniels, Okongwu, and Alexander-Walker is clearly showing a major toll. They\u2019ve been blown out at home more times than I can count, including a calamitous 43-point deficit at one point in a 26-point beatdown at the hands of the Boston Celtics last week.<\/p>\n

Even the close games aren\u2019t going their way. The team has been dreadful in clutch situations since the start of December.<\/p>\n

Finally, as of Tuesday afternoon, the team is just barely clinging onto 10th in the standings, with the 11th and 12th place Bucks and Hornets respectively vying for that final Play-In Tournament.<\/p>\n

From visions of a top-four conference finish to out of the postseason entirely would be a humiliating end to a season of collapses.<\/p>\n

The team is a mess, and any hopes of being the next Indiana Pacers are over.<\/p>\n

The team was projected to win 46.5 games (per basketball-reference)<\/a>, and they\u2019re on pace to win a full 10 games fewer than that (roughly 36.5). Yes, the Hawks still have 37 games remaining, the Eastern Conference isn\u2019t exactly a juggernaut, and the schedule gets easier after the All-Star break, but it will be way too little too late.<\/p>\n

I do think they\u2019ll make the Play-In Tournament at least and have a puncher\u2019s chance at entering the playoff bracket.<\/p>\n

But for what? A sweep at the hands of the Detroit Pistons? Yawn.<\/p>\n

So now where do they go? For me, here are the biggest areas to monitor going forward:<\/p>\n

Finding a franchise center<\/p>\n

The trade deadline is on the near horizon. I have to imagine the decision makers have been working the phones heavy in wake of the wildly disappointing performance of the team. We\u2019ve heard the Hawks linked to Giannis Antetokounmpo<\/a> (who is now reportedly off the market), Anthony Davis<\/a> (likely not happening with him nursing yet another injury), and other bigs<\/a> who can fill in the huge physicality and rebounding gaps in the team.<\/p>\n

This is almost certainly the end of the road for the persistently unavailable free-agent-to-be Kristaps Porzingis. I don\u2019t foresee any team offering him a multi-year contract given his injury and illness recurrences \u2014 especially not the Hawks.<\/p>\n

And Okongwu\u2019s overburdening was discussed above \u2014 I still see him as a quality backup big on a friendly contract but nothing more.<\/p>\n

Atlanta needs to find a dependable center who can anchor the defense, clear out space for rebounds, and provide a level a physicality the team needs (let\u2019s just move past the fact that Atlanta<\/a> had a real opportunity<\/a> to do so two drafts ago).<\/p>\n

Could they use their projected cap space this summer to sign Isaiah Hartenstein, likely the best center in the upcoming free agent market? That\u2019s one thought. Or they could target someone else by trade.<\/p>\n

But this, to me, is the most pressing issue given that the Hawks are headed for a ninth straight bottom half of the league finish in defensive rating.<\/p>\n

The one thing that has gone right has been the equally ugly collapse of the Milwaukee Bucks in addition to the (somewhat predictable) dreadful performance of the New Orleans Pelicans. More than halfway through the season, the best of both superpick acquired at the draft last year looks even better now than then.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s unlikely the Pelicans will finish with the worst record in the NBA given the many tanking teams just ahead of them and their own lack of incentive to tank. But all it takes is a few lucky ping pong bounces to possibly transform this franchise with a premium talent.<\/p>\n

With the Cleveland Cavaliers also under performing relative to preseason expectations, the pick swap they picked up through the De\u2019Andre Hunter trade could land them a first-round pick in the teens.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s debatable that the Hawks focused a bit too much on youth over experience this past offseason, but with these two picks in a strong draft, it\u2019s still a very viable avenue to add cheap \u2014 and possibly high-end \u2014 talent.<\/p>\n

Assess whether Snyder is the right person for the job<\/p>\n

Here is the elephant in the room.<\/p>\n

Let me start by saying coaching in the NBA is an incredibly difficult job, and that so much of the position happens behind closed doors. You need to manage rich and famous NBA player egos, and navigate the politics of communicating with the media, one\u2019s front office, and one\u2019s ownership group.<\/p>\n

Also, of course, comes the Xs and Os portion of the job. Implementing your system of basketball tactics and strategies \u2014 all that good stuff.<\/p>\n

Putting a good product on the floor is clearly the most visible part of it all. And I\u2019m not here to judge head coach Quin Snyder on anything but what the eyes can see.<\/p>\n

One can argue this season\u2019s roster isn\u2019t fit to succeed (although bettors and oddsmakers certainly thought so preseason). One can are argue injuries have derailed the initial plan (although that hasn\u2019t stopped the Celtics, Nuggets, and others from overcoming major injuries).<\/p>\n

One can no longer argue that Snyder has elevated the individual play of players \u2014 as detailed above \u2014 or the team writ large.<\/p>\n

Wins and losses are inarguable, and when a coach underperforms relative to a team\u2019s record, they tend to get the hook. This is just a universal truth throughout the history of the NBA.<\/p>\n

Lloyd Pierce fell fate to that very scenario. Once the goalposts moved from player development to contention, his 14-20 record halfway through the 2020-21 season sealed his fate. Snyder\u2019s 20-25 record to date looks eerily similar to Pierce\u2019s record then and Nate McMillan\u2019s 29-30 record in 2022-23 (although both previous coaches<\/a> had some level of fallout in the locker room<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Maybe it\u2019s best to wait until the end of the season for the higher ups to assess this situation. And if a different direction is desired, there will likely be a great availability of candidates to replace him in the offseason.<\/p>\n

But a real, honest assessment needs to be made before tipping off next season lest we end up in the same place this time next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A season for the Hawks that started with so much promise has quickly turned into a nightmare. I…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":551044,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3776],"tags":[676,208,64140,3874,7,677,6,2294],"class_list":{"0":"post-551043","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-atlanta-hawks","8":"tag-atlanta","9":"tag-atlanta-hawks","10":"tag-atlanta-hawks-discussion","11":"tag-atlantahawks","12":"tag-basketball","13":"tag-hawks","14":"tag-nba","15":"tag-opinion"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/115933388074145878","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/551043","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=551043"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/551043\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/551044"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=551043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=551043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=551043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}