But they shouldn\u2019t (and probably won\u2019t) \u2014 and here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s start with the latest from the rumor mill. Per NBA insider Marc Stein of the Stein Line substack blog from Thursday:<\/p>\n
The early indications are that Atlanta has not joined the Giannis chase and does not intend to.<\/p>\n
The Hawks do have control of Milwaukee\u2019s picks in the next two drafts but have shown no interest to date in surrendering control of them. The Hawks are likewise said to be unwilling to surrender Jalen Johnson in a theoretical Antetokounmpo deal … even though Johnson\u2019s agent Rich Paul said in one of his recent podcasts that the Milwaukee native is precisely whom the Bucks should target.<\/p>\n
League sources say Atlanta continues to explore what moves can be made at this deadline with its $40-plus million in expiring contracts when combining Kristaps Porzi\u0146\u0123is and Luke Kennard. And you can never forget that A) the Hawks hosted Antetokounmpo for the only pre-draft workout he conducted on American soil before the Bucks swooped in to select him with the 15th overall pick in 2013 and B) had conversations with Antetokounmpo\u2019s agent Alex Saratsis last spring about joining Atlanta\u2019s front office.<\/p>\n
However …<\/p>\n
Sources say that Atlanta has some level of reservation regarding the skillsets of Antetokounmpo and Johnson and how they would match after trading away Young in early January to make the 24-year-old their new centerpiece.<\/p>\n
Onsi Saleh, the newly elevated general manager of the Hawks, on Tuesday spoke with Steak Shapiro and Sandra Golden on the Steakhouse<\/a>, a show on 92.9 The Game Atlanta SportsRadio. In it, he talked through his team building philosophy including his desire to follow a model similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs \u2014 one in which sustaining winning over a long period of time is held in the highest importance.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s development focused. It\u2019s being flexible,\u201d was one comment Saleh made in the interview as to what he wanted to see in this organization. But that development focus and flexibility would immediately go out of the window if the Hawks made the franchise-altering decision to acquire the former MVP.<\/p>\n \u201cPatience is everything in this league. Once you start trading picks, that\u2019s when you get in trouble,\u201d was another quip from Saleh \u2014 something the Hawks now know all too well from the Dejounte Murray trade. Murray is obviously not Antetokounmpo, but there are legitimate reasons for hesitancy in this regard as well.<\/p>\n Three reasons stick out to me as to why it\u2019s right for the Hawks to stay on the sideline for this move:<\/p>\n Giannis\u2019 availability and signs of decline can\u2019t be ignored<\/p>\n Giannis Antetokounmpo is very much still an all-world basketball player, even as he enters the heart of his 30s. Last season, he averaged 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game on 63% true shooting, and he deservingly finished third in MVP voting.<\/p>\n This season, the Bucks have a gargantuan 16.6 points differential per 100 possessions<\/a> between Antetokounmpo being on versus off the floor. I can confirm with my own two eyes that he\u2019s still a beast.<\/p>\n But any team that trades for him is trading for what the future holds for him, including very presumably the rights to hand him a four-year, $275 million maximum extension<\/a> this offseason. That\u2019s 68.8$ million per season out until 2029-30.<\/p>\n Antetokounmpo has struggled this season with a rash lower body injuries \u2014 calf, adductor, groin, knee, ankle, you name it<\/a>. As a result, he\u2019s only played in 30 of a possible 46 games so far this season.<\/p>\n Add to that the fact that while his offensive impact is as clear as it\u2019s ever been in his career, his defensive impact has fallen off a cliff since his Defensive Player of the Year days.<\/p>\n BBall Index\u2019 LEBRON metric has estimated that Antetokounmpo has the third biggest falloff in defensive impact in the entire NBA between last season and this season:<\/p>\n DARKO D-DPM (Defense Daily Plus Minus) shows a career trajectory that is steadily aiming downwards:<\/p>\n And plain old defensive on-off rating has Antetokounmpo as not particularly moving the needle lately compared to his +7.8 on-off peak in 2019-20:<\/p>\n And the eye test largely matches these metrics. Antetokounmpo just doesn\u2019t have the motor or defensive range he once had. Of course, he\u2019s had to almost singlehandedly prop up the offense in the post-Holiday\/post-Middleton era, so the heavy offensive load does matter, but it\u2019s still a worrying trend.<\/p>\n You can\u2019t live in the past when making a move of this importance. Projecting the future of a player you acquire is the most important aspect of which to be mindful. And if the Hawks gut their roster to acquire a great but no longer transcendent talent, the future state of the franchise could quickly turn grim.<\/p>\n The Hawks won\u2019t be able to maximize the window with Giannis<\/p>\n With Antetokounmpo showing some signs of decline, any team that takes the plunge to acquire him has to try to compete as soon as possible. One must consider what is left over after a deal of that magnitude.<\/p>\n For example, if the Hawks send Jalen Johnson the opposite way alongside a bundle of picks, they\u2019ll have very little ammo to upgrade the roster to maximize Antetokounmpo\u2019s skillset. A devastating downhill scorer, Milwaukee has targeted a number of catch-and-shoot specialists and stretch big men over the past few years to open up the spacing for his drive and kick game.<\/p>\n The fact of the matter is that the Hawks are 24-26 and face an uphill climb just to make the postseason this season \u2014 adding to the fact that Antetokounmpo will be on the shelf for a number of weeks according to medical physician Giannis Antetokounmpo<\/a>.<\/p>\n But look at the Bucks. You can point to some misguided moves there \u2014 stretching and waiving Damian Lillard over five years to sign Myles Turner was certainly a choice \u2014 but despite their best efforts to prove to Antetokounmpo that they will compete, they are now 18-28 and floundering.<\/p>\n The Hawks do have a surplus of shooters, but does Antetokounmpo fit with non-shooter Dyson Daniels long term? What happens when you take the ball out of the hands of others and centralize the gameplan around the Greek international? If he continues to have less and less range and impact on defense, where do you go for the defensive pieces to form a championship-contending team?<\/p>\n There are just so many difficult roster questions to answer that the Milwaukee Bucks themselves haven\u2019t been able to answer (just one playoff series win since their title run in 2021). As great a player as he is, Antetokounmpo\u2019s greatest gift may be his curse \u2014 he\u2019s a dominant but inflexible centerpiece of a basketball team on the court.<\/p>\n Atlanta would lack the salary space and the draft assets to plug any holes if this trade were to go through unless they received a heavy price discount. And with teams like the Warriors ready to send virtually all future assets<\/a> to give Stephen Curry a twilight sendoff, Atlanta matching that deal would be entirely too risky an endeavor I firmly believe.<\/p>\n The superpick is just too valuable<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/lebron-bball-index-giannis.png\"\/)
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