{"id":573565,"date":"2026-01-31T19:56:23","date_gmt":"2026-01-31T19:56:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/573565\/"},"modified":"2026-01-31T19:56:23","modified_gmt":"2026-01-31T19:56:23","slug":"ja-morant-trade-probabilities-nba-star-on-the-block","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/573565\/","title":{"rendered":"Ja Morant trade probabilities: NBA star on the block"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"KVSZVVOW3RFNZETP4BXSWGNN4U\">Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant is one of the biggest names on the block leading up to the Feb. 5 NBA trade deadline. The two-time All-Star should draw significant interest, considering he is just 26 years old and will not be a free agent until 2028.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"ZPGW5CTEFBDHXHGCGG2564WJTU\">However, concerns about durability and off-the-court problems have seemingly narrowed the list of potential suitors. On top of that, Morant\u2019s production has declined as he\u2019s shooting a career-low 41% from the field and 23.5% on 3-pointers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"USYHZJAMWNGUBEJUGSK4P6M63A\">Using the Kalshi promo code MLIVE, customers can try to <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxnextteamnba\/next-nba-team\/kxnextteamnba-26jmor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">predict Morant\u2019s next destination by buying contracts on Kalshi<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Ja Morant\u2019s next team probabilities on Kalshi<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"Y6RLJJH5XBB2NJK32E5JQAA2IY\">Morant is in the third year of a five-year, $197.2 million contract that pays him roughly $39.4 million this season. That alone could make it difficult for Memphis to deal the erratic star.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"4X6KT7N4SVHNPF3T6NJDSACM2I\">As such, prediction market Kalshi has him at 62% to stay with the Grizzlies \u2014 or retire \u2014 ahead of the deadline. Still, the franchise continues to entertain offers.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/nba\/story\/_\/id\/47561697\/grizzlies-entertaining-ja-morant-trade-offers-sources-say\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"> ESPN\u2019s Shams Charania <\/a>reported earlier this month that Memphis is prioritizing draft picks and young players in return for Morant, who is averaging 19.5 points, 8.1 assists and 3.3 rebounds in 20 games this season.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"NP2YY55BTJBINPHD6UU7UN5X6M\">Further complicating matters is Morant\u2019s inability to stay on the court. Morant returned from a calf injury on Jan. 18 after a six-game absence. After double-doubles in each of his first two games back, Morant is now on the shelf again due to a UCL sprain in his left elbow. The team announced he will be re-evaluated in three weeks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"5IDSUNSFXZGZFGSLKUHPHO67OE\">This comes on the heels of Morant playing a total of only 59 games over the last two seasons because of injuries and suspension.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the latest predictions on Morant\u2019s future team:<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"LKHS7MJXCRHZ3CZAC6Q6SH2ZMQ\">Stays with Memphis or retires: 62%<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"MB7YEXKXTRFGHPML7VOF2QTSEM\">Miami: 13%<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"6ZYCIHGQY5APBPPTS4CI7P45NE\">Milwaukee: 8%<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"ZGYL62CS5NHJNHT7T5ADWLS2DA\">New Orleans: 8%<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"G4R4QESJMRCNFHQTD2D2GGQMMY\">If Morant does wind up being traded, Kalshi sees Miami being his most likely suitor. Miami is 25-22 with ample cap space and could use a proven point guard.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"2KVK7Q7WDRCUFKLZFXC4M3TS34\">The 12-36 New Orleans Pelicans, meanwhile, may view Morant as an asset for the future, while any Milwaukee Bucks moves are likely contingent on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nj.com\/betting\/2026\/01\/giannis-antetokounmpo-trade-probabilities-nba-superstar-could-be-on-the-move.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Giannis Antetokounmpo being traded<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>How do you trade on Kalshi?<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"55R756B4XBBNJHUSBT6XEAYYG4\">Kalshi does not operate like traditional <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlive.com\/betting\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">betting sites<\/a> because there are no Kalshi betting odds.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"WEEIVGJGFRAQXEA6TKS6NIKP6U\">Instead, Kalshi prices are predicated on market trends where users trade \u201cyes\u201d or \u201cno\u201d contracts. These settle at $1 if the prediction is correct and $0 if incorrect, with prices representing market-implied probability. A $0.55 price, for example, suggests a 55% chance of the event occurring.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"ILVUGVZNT5DGHMI2FFNFHUJU5Y\">Here\u2019s what that means in terms of profit: if you purchase 100 contracts of Morant being traded to Miami at 13% ($0.13 per contract), you will get back $100 for a net profit of $87 if that\u2019s where he indeed lands.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"WBTFCTLANVHCXFGIO2UUT24UOE\">With that in mind, new customers can check out our Kalshi promo code review to learn more about trading on Kalshi.<\/p>\n<p>How the Kalshi promo code works<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"VMDSZ3VESZHL7DKUBFNAAKNSXQ\">It is quick and easy to sign up for Kalshi, and customers 18 or older can register in most states. Here is how to get started using the Kalshi promo code MLIVE.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"TMCMDIOAOJCZXBOTCYQN5OYBVU\">1. Click the <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/sign-up?referral=mlive&amp;sub1=mipzs8gbcross_b4348\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Kalshi link <\/a>to open an account.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"RNYFXO4S3ZBKLOILRH3KW6C3AA\">2. Fill out the registration forms, verifying your age and identity.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"GLWYMJQ4DJCXJIKJHIF6EKYLWA\">3. Fill in promo code MLIVE when prompted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"CXTZOK6ZRJGPBC372RJMXBZ7FQ\">4. Select a payment method and make your first cash deposit.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"7YQUHXCMQ5EZPHD3NF5DYXRP4M\">5. Trade $10 to score a $10 bonus.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--left\" id=\"SBH5WMN3OVGBDICZESPJCHC7QU\">NOTE: Event contracts trading involves risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Prediction markets content is not intended for individuals located in jurisdictions where they are prohibited.<\/p>\n<p>If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.advancelocal.com\/advancelocalUserAgreement\/user-agreement.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">User Agreement<\/a> and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and\/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.advancelocal.com\/advancelocalUserAgreement\/privacy-policy.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Privacy Policy.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant is one of the biggest names on the block leading up to the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":573566,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3795],"tags":[7,1148,294,293,177,4070,6],"class_list":["post-573565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-memphis-grizzlies","tag-basketball","tag-fedexforum","tag-grizzlies","tag-memphis","tag-memphis-grizzlies","tag-memphisgrizzlies","tag-nba"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/115991477313341496","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/573565","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=573565"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/573565\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/573566"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=573565"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=573565"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=573565"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}