Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Pelicans at Bucks on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
As the clock ticks down with under 24 hours remaining until the NBA trade deadline, all eyes remain on the Milwaukee Bucks, where Giannis Antetokounmpo could be in his final day with the team. Trade rumors have ramped up in recent days, as the Minnesota Timberwolves dealt away Mike Conley to free up cap space.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not a guarantee that Antetokounmpo will be traded, but if a deal does go down today, it could impact the Bucks\u2019 availability for tonight\u2019s game against the New Orleans Pelicans, which will tip off at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum. As is, Antetokounmpo (calf), Gary Harris (hamstring), and Bobby Portis (hip) are the main contributors out, with Cole Anthony (ankle) and Myles Turner (ankle) both probable. New Orleans is completely healthy, a rarity this season.<\/p>\n
The Pelicans are 5.5-point favorites<\/a> on DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a> (-205 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 222.5. Milwaukee is +170 on the Moneyline. Below, I\u2019ll break down this clash and offer a prediction.<\/p>\n New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks preview, prediction<\/p>\n New Orleans has continued to lose as of late, but most promisingly, oft-injured star Zion Williamson has appeared in each of the team\u2019s last 26 games, and while he hasn\u2019t played at an All-Star level over that span, 21.2 points and 6.5 rebounds per game is solid production. Trey Murphy III, rumored to be in the trade market all season, is still on the Pelicans\u2019 roster for now and is averaging 21.6 points and a career-high 1.5 steals per game while posting a true shooting percentage north of 60%. Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears have continued to have up-and-down moments in their rookie seasons, but if New Orleans stays healthy, its vision for the future has some merit.<\/p>\n The Pelicans certainly have more of a vision for the future than the Bucks do, at least as long as the Antetokounmpo situation remains unresolved. Milwaukee is coming off of a win, but it came against a Chicago Bulls team that had just traded starting center Nikola Vu\u010devi\u0107 and hadn\u2019t yet integrated new acquisitions Jaden Ivey and Anfernee Simons. Besides point guard Ryan Rollins, who has been of the league\u2019s most-improved players this season, no Buck has shown enough promise to convince Antetokounmpo to stay.<\/p>\n Pelicans at Bucks pick, best bet<\/p>\n There won\u2019t be much defense played tonight. New Orleans ranks fourth-to-last in defensive rating, and while Milwaukee has been somewhat better on a season-long basis, it gave up 139 points to the Philadelphia 76ers in the first game after Antetokounmpo was injured and, more generally, has been slightly worse on defense without him on the floor. That pales in comparison to each team\u2019s offensive woes, though: the Pelicans rank sixth-to-last in offensive rating, and without Antetokounmpo, the Bucks fall from the equivalent of the league\u2019s best offense to the equivalent of its worst. Milwaukee scored just 79 points against the Boston Celtics on Sunday.<\/p>\n The key to beating either of these teams is driving. This season, New Orleans has allowed the second-most attempts inside the restricted area and has allowed opponents to convert at an above-average rate, and while the Bucks have been slightly better at stopping opponents from getting inside, they\u2019ve given up a higher percentage on restricted-area tries. Plus, the Pelicans have been easily the league\u2019s best team at getting downhill, attempting 3.7 more layups per game than any other team, and Milwaukee was one of the league\u2019s worst even before losing Antetokounmpo, who leads the league in restricted-area tries for the fourth time in five seasons.<\/p>\n New Orleans should also have a massive edge on the glass. Even with Myles Turner manning the middle, the Bucks\u2019 competitiveness on the glass is solely a result of Antetokounmpo, and without him, their rebounding percentage drops to a dismal 45.9%, which would be tied for the second-worst full-season mark in the last 25 seasons. The Pelicans haven\u2019t been good on the boards, ranking just ninth-to-last in total rebounding percentage and giving up the sixth-most per game overall because they play at a fast pace, but they\u2019re not quite as impotent as Milwaukee without Antetokounmpo. <\/p>\n One thing that the Bucks have been better at than New Orleans is three-point closeouts, but not by much. This season, the Pelicans have given up the second-most wide-open threes and Milwaukee the fourth-most, but that advantage, too, has flipped since Antetokounmpo\u2019s latest injury. Neither team has generated many uncontested looks, and while the Bucks probably have the better shooters overall, losing Harris \u2014 a 47.6% three-point shooter who had been in the rotation for much of December and January \u2014 could hurt. Milwaukee\u2019s shooters will also probably get worse looks than usual without Antetokounmpo\u2019s gravity.<\/p>\n Unless Rollins, Kevin Porter Jr., and AJ Green shoot the lights out, New Orleans has a small advantage in every facet of the game. The Pelicans aren\u2019t a good all-around team, but their tenacity on drives could put a lot of pressure on Turner, especially since he isn\u2019t a great rebounder. New Orleans is well-suited to take advantage of the Bucks\u2019 weaknesses, so it should cover the spread.<\/p>\n