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<\/p>\nAs the calendar turned to February, the questions for this week\u2019s men\u2019s college basketball mailbag had a mostly common theme: the impending coaching carousel.<\/p>\n
So we\u2019ll begin with the coach who more of you asked about than any other \u2026<\/p>\n
(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)<\/p>\n
With the coaching carousel starting up, it seems everyone\u2019s number one candidate is Saint Louis\u2019 Josh Schertz. The Billikens have one of the higher financial commitments in the Atlantic 10, especially considering the salary and buyout for both Schertz and (former coach Travis) Ford. Is it realistic they are able to retain him and push towards advancement in the next inevitable round of conference realignment? \u2014 Cole K.<\/p>\n
Schertz is the hottest name on the carousel right now and for good reason. He built one of the best programs in Division II at Lincoln Memorial (Tenn.), won at Indiana State at a level no one had done since Larry Bird was on campus, and now Saint Louis (22-1) is on the verge of its best season in school history in only his second season. He checks all the boxes. Evaluator, developer, communicator and elite X\u2019s and O\u2019s coach.<\/p>\n
Whether he leaves or stays at Saint Louis is likely to be determined by what actually opens this cycle. Schertz could have gone to a high-major when he left Indiana State two years ago if it was the only thing he cared about. He\u2019s smart enough to know that once you go that route, you want to be at a place where it\u2019s realistic to win. That\u2019s why he chose Saint Louis. SLU is one of the best jobs in a good league, and because it doesn\u2019t have football, it is set up well in this revenue-sharing era. Schertz is in a spot similar to Shaka Smart in his VCU days. He does not need to rush and should be picky. (The same could be written for two of the other coaches I think should be near the top of every opening\u2019s wish list: Utah State\u2019s Jerrod Calhoun and New Mexico\u2019s Eric Olen. Both are at good basketball schools and can be selective.)<\/p>\n
Saint Louis would definitely have a better shot at keeping Schertz if it were able to join the Big East, but I don\u2019t think that can be part of his thought process. That\u2019s a hypothetical that isn\u2019t close to far enough down the road to even consider. \u2014 CJ Moore<\/p>\n
I am tired of my Cincinnati Bearcats being a joke. Who should UC fans keep an eye on for head-coaching candidates for next season if we fire Wes Miller? My current list: Josh Schertz, Jerrod Calhoun, Eric Olen. \u2014 Paul G.<\/p>\n
Things haven\u2019t worked out at Cincinnati for Miller, who has yet to make the NCAA Tournament in his fifth season and isn\u2019t trending that direction this year. The Bearcats entered February with an 11-11 record, their most losses at this stage of the season since 2007-08, which was Mick Cronin\u2019s second at the helm and the program\u2019s last with a losing record. Cincinnati hasn\u2019t made the tournament since 2019, Cronin\u2019s last season.<\/p>\n
A coaching change feels inevitable. Miller\u2019s buyout drops from $9.9 million to $4.69 million on April 1, a date many Bearcats fans have circled on the calendar.<\/p>\n
Schertz would no doubt be on the candidate list, but as CJ noted, that will be the case for every high-major school in the market. Calhoun at Utah State is a really intriguing option. He built up Youngstown State and has had two strong seasons with the Aggies, plus he\u2019s an Ohio native and Cincinnati graduate who worked as a student assistant under Bob Huggins and again as an assistant at West Virginia. Those ties alone would appeal to a portion of the fan base still pining for a return to the Huggins-era glory days, but Calhoun has shown enough to warrant attention regardless.<\/p>\n
Olen would be another strong choice, and I suspect the mid-major likes of Ryan Pedon at Illinois State (who was runner-up for the Cincy job as an Ohio State assistant when Miller was hired), Tony Skinn at George Mason and Bryce Drew at Grand Canyon would get some consideration, among others. This would be a critical hire for athletic director John Cunningham, who is also under the microscope, so the assistant route seems less likely, though that shouldn\u2019t completely rule out someone like UConn\u2019s Luke Murray or Texas Tech assistant Jeff Linder, who was previously a head coach. Either way, Cincinnati is an attractive enough job to entice a strong list of candidates. If they make a change, Cunningham and the Bearcats need to get this one right. \u2014 Justin Williams<\/p>\n
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\n With two national championships at UConn, assistant Kimani Young is an attractive head-coaching option. (Christian Peterson \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
Who are some assistant coaches who deserve a big head-coaching job? I\u2019m a UConn fan and I know Kimani Young and Luke Murray have been huge in making the team what it is over the years. \u2014 George G.<\/p>\n
Young and Murray are right at the top of the list. Remember: Had Dan Hurley opted to take the Los Angeles Lakers job in the summer of 2024, it\u2019s likely that Young (deservedly) would\u2019ve gotten the UConn gig, at least on an interim basis. Murray, meanwhile, is someone high-major teams \u2014 like NC State last summer \u2014 have been looking at already, especially for his offensive ingenuity.<\/p>\n
But it\u2019s worth pointing out that last season, only one high-major assistant \u2014 Duke\u2019s Jai Lucas (Miami) \u2014 got a high-major head-coaching job from a different school than the one he was at. Many more high-major assistants \u2014 like Florida\u2019s Kevin Hovde (Columbia) and John Andrzejek (Campbell), and Alabama\u2019s Ryan Pannone (Arkansas State) \u2014 still got head-coaching jobs, but just at lower levels of the sport. There are plenty of qualified assistants who fall into that latter bucket \u2026 but fewer who could realistically jump from high-major assistant to high-major head coach, a la Lucas. (And I don\u2019t think you meant high-major assistants who have already been head coaches before, like Texas Tech\u2019s Jeff Linder or Michigan\u2019s Mike Boynton Jr.)<\/p>\n
That pool shrinks even further when you consider that most of the obvious candidates \u2014 Houston\u2019s Kellen Sampson, San Diego State\u2019s Dave Velasquez, Creighton\u2019s Alan Huss and so on \u2014 are waiting to become their current school\u2019s next head coach, either formally or expectedly. The two biggest names who stand out, though, are Duke\u2019s Chris Carrawell and Tennessee\u2019s Justin Gainey. Both were finalists for high-major openings last cycle \u2014 Carrawell at Florida State, Gainey at NC State \u2014 and could be again, although Gainey\u2019s ties to the Wolfpack made for a unique situation. \u2014 Brendan Marks<\/p>\n
Is it just me, or are there an inordinate number of 30-plus point games by individuals this season, and not just from one guy like Trae Young or Zach Edey in recent years? \u2014 Dan K.<\/p>\n
Dan, you officially sent me down a rabbit hole. Congrats.<\/p>\n
Anecdotally, I don\u2019t disagree with you. It feels like every night, there\u2019s some new, incredible breakout performance. But with the help of Stathead\u2019s game record log, I crunched the numbers.<\/p>\n
As of Tuesday morning, there have been 437 30-point games this season, with 73 different high-major players hitting that mark at least once. The national leaders in 30-point games, as of Tuesday morning, were Jackson State\u2019s Daeshun Ruffin and Tarleton State\u2019s Dior Johnson, both of whom have seven such performances. (The high-major leader is JT Toppin, with five.)<\/p>\n
For the sake of time, I only went back a decade to the 2015-16 season \u2014 and while this season is certainly on the higher end, you might be surprised to know that on a per-day basis, this season only has the fourth most 30-point games in the last decade. The high mark was actually one you mentioned in your question: 2017-18, when Young had nine of the 787 30-point games in college basketball that season. (Both 2016-17 and 2018-19 are ahead of this season, too, but only narrowly.) That equated to almost five and a half 30-point games per night, compared to 4.75 this year. We could still see this season climb the ranks \u2014 but for now, it\u2019s on pace to be a very good, but not great, year for 30-point games. \u2014 Marks<\/p>\n
Is this year\u2019s version of the Tobacco Road rivalry the start of what it once was? Highly ranked matchups and big-time players. What are the key factors leading into the game for each team? \u2014 Jasper S.<\/p>\n
What it once was? You mean all those years ago, when both teams were ranked in the top 10? Like way back in \u2026 2024?<\/p>\n
In all seriousness, Jasper, I get your point. UNC-Duke always delivers, but admittedly, the past few seasons \u2014 ever since that fateful 2019 ACC tournament semifinal, which remains the most fun UNC-Duke game I\u2019ve ever covered \u2014 haven\u2019t quite lived up to the rivalry\u2019s historic billing. (No, I\u2019m not forgetting the Final Four meeting, which was also incredible.) North Carolina\u2019s inconsistency during Roy Williams\u2019 final years and Hubert Davis\u2019 tenure has been a key reason why, although let\u2019s not forget that Mike Krzyzewski had a historic stinker of his own in 2020-21. All of which is to say, I interpret your question as: Will the Tar Heels regularly start holding up their end of the bargain? Because Jon Scheyer sure seems to have things figured out in Durham.<\/p>\n
As of now, I would say yes. The Tar Heels have a top-10 budget in the sport, and as Davis\u2019 roster shows, he\u2019s still a strong talent evaluator, even with a handful of portal misses the last few seasons. That has given North Carolina a relatively high floor, to say nothing of the sky-high ceiling it has shown at times, like against Kansas and the second half at Virginia. I know the \u201cfire Hubert Davis\u201d crowd probably doesn\u2019t want to hear that, and Davis isn\u2019t without his flaws, but after last season, he\u2019s shown he can make good use of the resources at his disposal.<\/p>\n
As for Saturday\u2019s game, the three key factors I\u2019m watching are:<\/p>\n
1. How does North Carolina defend Cam Boozer? Caleb Wilson will have the first opportunity, obviously, but I imagine Jarin Stevenson \u2014 and possibly even Zayden High, as a body with five fouls to give \u2014 will get their moments, too. UNC can\u2019t afford for Wilson to pick up early foul trouble defending Duke\u2019s star, as Armando Bacot did a few years back against Paolo Banchero.<\/p>\n
2. Who wins the battle on the interior? Duke is second nationally in 2-point percentage and UNC is fifth nationally in 2-point defense, per KenPom. Henri Veesaar and Wilson make for formidable rim protection, but Boozer and Patrick Ngongba II are a load to handle down low. If UNC can stymie Duke in the paint, and force the Blue Devils to become a little trigger-happy from 3 \u2014 which they\u2019ve been at various points, usually to their detriment \u2014 then that\u2019s a huge advantage in the Tar Heels\u2019 favor.<\/p>\n
3. Which backcourt comes up bigger? Both have been maligned at times this season, but in Seth Trimble and Isaiah Evans, each blue blood has at least one guard it knows it can count on. But beyond that? Does Caleb Foster show his veteran savvy, or does Derek Dixon stamp himself as a freshman? What about Cayden Boozer or Luka Bogavac? The bigs are going to be productive each way, so whichever secondary guard shows up most might swing the outcome. \u2014 Marks<\/p>\n
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\n Brayden Burries and Arizona give the Big 12 a high-end national championship contender. (Chris Coduto \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
To win the national championship, would you rather take all of the Big Ten teams, all of the Big 12 teams, or the field? For once, I don\u2019t think it would be the field. \u2014 Anonymous U.<\/p>\n
I think I agree: At the moment, Big Ten versus Big 12 seems to be a tougher choice than either conference over the field. Of the top 10 teams in KenPom, seven are from the Big Ten (four) and Big 12 (three). If you compare that to recent seasons, there were four SEC teams in last year\u2019s final top 10, one of which was title-winning Florida. In KenPom\u2019s final 2024 and 2023 rankings, no conference had more than two teams in the top 10.<\/p>\n