{"id":607841,"date":"2026-02-17T09:32:57","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T09:32:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/607841\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T09:32:57","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T09:32:57","slug":"auto-eligible-outliers-in-the-2026-nba-draft","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/607841\/","title":{"rendered":"Auto-Eligible Outliers in the 2026 NBA Draft"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

This is a tough part of the scouting cycle for me. <\/p>\n

The freshmen don\u2019t feel so fresh anymore. The other day, I looked at my schedule and thought, \u201cI don\u2019t have it in me to watch another BYU game.\u201d The upperclassmen begin to feel stale. Alex Karaban<\/a> has been in my life for so many years at this point. On top of the monotony of the daily grind, I worry about how the feeling of overexposure could be influencing my evaluations. Am I getting too caught up in the little things with Caleb Wilson<\/a> instead of appreciating what he\u2019s great at? Am I being too hard on Mikel Brown<\/a>? <\/p>\n

When I find myself in this rut, which happens almost every year, I turn to two places. The first is the NBA, as I remain steadfast in my belief that it\u2019s important to \u201ckeep the bar high\u201d when scouting. By taking a little bit of a break from the top college prospects, I can reassess them later with a fresh lens after devoting a greater portion of my time to the league I am eventually projecting these guys to play in. I always keep a steady diet of NBA games, but it\u2019s extra fun around this time of year. The trade deadline creates new opportunities for some players who weren\u2019t getting them before, and it\u2019s also fun to see how prominent players who were moved fare in their new cities. The second place should come as no surprise to my fellow Draft Sickos\u2026THE MARGINS.<\/p>\n

When I get tired of looking at the same players over and over again, watching someone I\u2019ve seen little or none of is a refreshing sensation. Still, I don\u2019t have heaps and heaps of free time. I need to be selective. So, I set up some criteria.<\/p>\n

-With the NIL landscape being what it is, I anticipate fewer underclassmen declaring once again. As a result, I wanted to focus on players who are auto-eligible for the 2026 NBA Draft.
-I also wanted the players to be, well, good. So, I set a baseline minimum BPM of 5.0, as very few older prospects find success when they don\u2019t hit that mark in their pre-draft season.
-Lastly, I needed a hook. I didn\u2019t want to watch a bunch of guys who are just\u2026worse versions of replacement level dudes. I wanted guys who are special at something. So, I focused on players who are having at least a Top 5 season in an advanced statistical category among seniors with BPM above 5.0. <\/p>\n

With that being said, it\u2019s time that I present to you\u2026the Auto-Eligible Outliers of the 2026 NBA Draft.<\/p>\n

Special Stat: 4.7 STL%<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Kashie Natt<\/a> is a pest on defense. He\u2019s the basketball equivalent of an itch you just can\u2019t scratch; his presence is constantly looming and annoying you. At 190 pounds, he has a solid frame for a guard, which makes him tough to get through at the point of attack. His hands are absolutely absurd. He does an incredible job of poking into the handles of his opponents at the point-of-attack, even when they aren\u2019t being particularly sloppy with their dribble. Off-ball, his motor, speed, and instincts are sublime. He\u2019s quick to recognize rotations, and he covers ground so quickly that he\u2019s often able to get to passes in situations where opponents don\u2019t even fathom that he could possibly make a play on the ball. If the rock isn\u2019t thrown with intent and anticipation, Natt is going to pick it off. Because he thinks the game so quickly, he also nabs a bunch of takeaways in gray areas, like when the opposing team gets a little careless before bringing the ball up the floor or when a big man doesn\u2019t anticipate a swipe after grabbing a defensive rebound. Natt is one of the best contributors to the possession battle you can find in the college basketball world.<\/p>\n

Oh yeah. Natt is also an outrageous shot blocker for a guard, tallying a 2.9 BLK% on the year. His help instincts around the basket are top-notch, and he absolutely soars before emphatically rejecting opponents. Natt also rebounds more like a power forward than a guard. The offense is a bit of a mixed bag. The good news is that his speed and bounce enable him to finish above the rim, with his 10 dunks so far this season being a good mark for a guard. Natt gets to the rim often and draws a ton of fouls (.543 FTr). He\u2019s also hit 41.8% of his threes on the year. Still, I have some skepticism. Natt\u2019s offensive process leaves something to be desired. He only has a 15.2 AST%, which is dicey for a mid-major upperclassman guard. He misses reads downhill only to force tough rim attempts (49% at the rim). Natt can also force passes through impossibly tight windows, leading to turnovers.<\/p>\n

I absolutely love Kashie Natt\u2019s brand of basketball. He\u2019s truly a top-tier defensive prospect. The question, to me at least, is whether or not he has enough juice on offense. He\u2019s behind the curve as a processor on that side of the ball. While I love his percentage from deep and foul drawing, he\u2019s a low-volume three-point shooter, and his touch around the basket is shaky. If he doesn\u2019t work out, the reasons why will feel obvious in hindsight, as Natt is an iffy offensive player as an upperclassman in a mid-major league. But I can\u2019t stop thinking about the overlap between someone like Natt and Craig Porter Jr. Porter was a far more polished offensive orchestrator at the same point in his journey, but punched way above their weight on defense and on the glass while being able to hit enough threes to remain viable off-ball players. Of all the players I studied for this exercise, Natt is the one who\u2019s surged the highest up my board. I definitely think he\u2019s worth the two-way contract swing given the value this type of guard has in the modern NBA. <\/p>\n

Special Stat: 15.9 BLK%<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Ugonna Onyenso<\/a> has the best block rate in the senior class. He\u2019s long been a \u201cblock everything\u201d type of dude, as his career block rate sits at 14.2%. The athletic traits you\u2019d expect from this type of player are here. He has long arms, he\u2019s quick, and he gets off the floor really well. But as I\u2019ve dug into Onyenso\u2019s tape this season, the biggest thing that\u2019s impressed me has been his discipline. He\u2019s shown far more polish with the angles he\u2019s taken in drop coverage instead of turboing around before leaping for rejections. Onyenso also does an awesome job of staying grounded against pump fakes. I was surprised how often players tried to bait him off his feet, only for him to stay on the floor before rejecting them moments later. His hand-eye coordination and hand speed are top-notch, too. He tracks the ball down in a hurry and does it without compromising his verticality or recklessly swiping down onto a player\u2019s body. Because of this poised approach, Onyenso rarely fouls, averaging only 4.1 fouls per 100 possessions. For context, here\u2019s how he stacks up against other notable rim protectors during their pre-draft seasons:<\/p>\n

Walker Kessler: 19.1 BLK%, 5.7 FP100
Jaren Jackson Jr.: 14.3 BLK%, 8.6 FP100
Mo Bamba: 13.1 BLK%, 5.0 FP100
Dereck Lively II: 12.7 BLK%, 8.0 FP100
Isaiah Jackson: 12.7 BLK%, 8.3 FP100<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not the biggest \u201cfoul aversion is the most important thing\u201d guy in the world. Generally, it\u2019s to be expected that if a guy creates a lot of events on defense, he\u2019s going to foul sometimes. If you make an omelet, you\u2019re going to break a few eggs. But Onyenso is the rare big man who can tally a ton of rejections while presenting little in the way of foul-trouble tradeoff. This ability to patrol the paint, block everything, and avoid sending opponents into the line is far from normal.<\/p>\n

Onyenso is also a great play finisher, which shouldn\u2019t come as a surprise given his physical gifts. He\u2019s made 71.1% of his halfcourt rim attempts on the year, per Synergy. He can get up for lobs on the roll or clean up from the dunker spot. <\/p>\n

There have been two new, enticing wrinkles to Onyeno\u2019s game this season. The first is that he\u2019s been a very \u201clow mistake\u201d player. While his 5.3 AST% is rather anemic and genuinely concerning in an era where big men are being asked to do more with the ball than ever before, he\u2019s still managed to keep his assist-to-turnover mark positive on the year because he doesn\u2019t bite off more than he can chew. If it\u2019s not easy and simple, he\u2019s not going to mess around with it. He\u2019s also started to shoot it a little bit. His 70.3% mark at the charity stripe is solid, and now, Onyenso will let the long ball fly when given time and room. He\u2019s yet to find consistency from deep, but he\u2019s hit six pick-and-pop threes this year, and they don\u2019t look too bad!<\/p>\n

I think Ugonna Onyenso deserves more attention. I get the reservations. He\u2019s a senior. He\u2019s on his third school. He comes off the bench and only plays 18.1 MPG. Onyenso is also a limited playmaker and a poor rebounder, the latter of which is frustrating given his tools. But at the end of the day, I know he\u2019s great at something, and I also believe that his physical traits are good enough that he can continue to be great at it in the pros. Plus, he\u2019s really figured out how to thrive in a low-maintenance capacity on offense. I also like that he\u2019s starting to shoot a little bit, as it gives him another dimension to his offensive game. Onyenso\u2019s lack of ball skills and suboptimal performance on the glass, at his age, mean he\u2019s unlikely to develop into a high-value player at the next level. That said, \u201cbreak glass in case of emergency big men\u201d are found on rosters throughout the league. If I\u2019m going to have to throw one in, give me the elite rim protector and elite play finisher who knows what he is. I think there\u2019s a world where he plays multiple years in the NBA. <\/p>\n

Special Stat: 42.3% from three on 14.7 attempts per 100 possessions<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

NBA teams love guys who can hit threes on high volume. Anthony Roy<\/a> is one of those guys. He\u2019s a nuclear-level threat from deep. What immediately stands out about Roy relative to most marksmen is that he\u2019s actually got some juice to him on the ball. He\u2019s got slick footwork and a mesmerizing dribble game that he can use to generate space for himself on the perimeter. Once he has that space, oh boy. Roy has made 43.8% of his threes as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and 45.5% of his threes in isolation this season, per Synergy. He also brings heaps of gravity off-ball, as he\u2019s hit 46.7% of his catch-and-shoot threes on the year per Synergy. Roy can move into his shot or spot up from deep behind the NBA line. What\u2019s more, this isn\u2019t anything new for Roy. Throughout his four D-I seasons, he\u2019s a career 42.4% shooter from distance on 14.8 attempts per 100 possessions, mirroring the results he\u2019s produced this season for the Cowboys. Roy isn\u2019t just having an outlier shooting season\u2014he\u2019s a proven sniper who also has the ability to create his own shots. <\/p>\n

While the real sell here is Roy\u2019s shooting, he has some athleticism that helps him in other areas. His footwork and speed aid him in breaking down and dusting defenders. He gets to the rim far more often than most premier shooters, with 31.8% of his halfcourt shots coming at the basket, per Synergy. He\u2019s also not averse to contact, tallying a .360 Free Throw Rate on the year. Still, he\u2019s been a subpar finisher this year. Roy also doesn\u2019t see the floor particularly well, with a 7.8 AST% that\u2019s underwhelming for a wing with a 25.1 USG% and a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. His effort on defense is passive, both on and off the ball.<\/p>\n

My main concern with Anthony Roy on the basketball court is that his game doesn\u2019t have a lot of insulation. When the shot isn\u2019t going in, he currently doesn\u2019t provide much value. Then, there\u2019s the fact that his college career has been a bit of a journey. Roy will turn 25 during his rookie season, and he\u2019s made stops at six different schools. There have been some<\/a> off-court issues<\/a> along the way, which teams may find concerning. But, at the end of the day, a three-point shot is worth three points, and there aren\u2019t many people on earth who can take or make as many of them as Anthony Roy. I think a two-way contract is reasonable if a team thinks they can get him to adapt his play style a little bit. <\/p>\n

Special Stat: 36.4 AST%<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Liberty\u2019s Zach Cleveland<\/a> is an outstanding playmaking hub. The Flames love to put him in the mid-range, be it the elbow, nail, or baseline, and let him make reads while the offense flows around him. From there, he does a great job of finding openings as they arise and immediately hitting his teammates for high percentage looks. But what really stands out on tape is Cleveland\u2019s level of execution. There\u2019s not a pass in the book he can\u2019t throw, and he tends to throw them perfectly. Whether he\u2019s making a whip from the low block to a shooter in the weakside corner or perfectly leading a cutter to the rim with a needle-threading bounce pass, it feels like he\u2019s always throwing the ball through the perfect window with pinpoint precision. His 7.1 APG to only 2.9 TOV demonstrates that he\u2019s not just capable of racking up assists, but that he can do it while limiting his mistakes.<\/p>\n

Cleveland brings a lot to the table on defense. He\u2019s not the quickest or bounciest, but he\u2019s long, strong, fluid, and physical. His point-of-attack footwork is rock solid, enabling him to slide and contain the ball effectively. He\u2019s also a good stock producer (2.5 STL%, 4.8 BLK%). Cleveland\u2019s feel and timing help know when it makes sense to dig in on the ball or jump into a passing lane. He also collects blocks through his rotational awareness and ability to swallow up opponents. He\u2019s a great defensive rebounder (25.0 DRB%), which dovetails nicely with his playmaking skill in transition and early offense. I do worry about his offensive translation. Cleveland is an okay athlete by NBA standards, but not an exceptional one. Most of his buckets come on the block, so he\u2019ll need to make serious adjustments to his play style. He\u2019s also a career 11.1% three-point shooter on low volume, and he\u2019s only made 47.7% of his free throws this year, so he\u2019s unlikely to space the floor. <\/p>\n

Zach Cleveland is a really cool player. That said, I am dubious that he can parlay his college success to the NBA level. Because he\u2019s not a high-wire athlete or a floor spacer, it\u2019s hard to imagine where his scoring gravity will come from to set up his playmaking at the next level. It\u2019s also unlikely that a team will be eager to have the offense gravitate around him like it does at Liberty, especially early in his pro tenure. He\u2019s going to need to adjust how he plays the game on offense. Still, he\u2019s a 6\u20197\u201d dude with a ridiculous level of feel who produces on the defensive end. I think he\u2019s a worthwhile E-10 flier, and a team can see if there\u2019s anything they can do to get his jump shot workable. It\u2019s unlikely, but most E-10 players are unlikely to pan out to a serious degree. You have to bet on something with those contracts, and you could do a whole lot worse than an outlier processor with a pro frame. <\/p>\n

Special Stat: 21.6 ORB%<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Certain NBA teams have started to put more weight back into offensive rebounding, as it\u2019s a way to generate extra possessions and high-efficiency looks. Because of that, I wanted to examine this class\u2019s top offensive rebounder. Arizona\u2019s Tobe Awaka owns the glass, and he\u2019s not interested in subletting the space. The physical traits are there, as he\u2019s both strong and springy. The mental side is there, too. Awaka plays hard, always sprinting down the floor to clean up any potential misses in transition. His attention to detail is great. He\u2019s always trying to find ways to establish inside position when defenders aren\u2019t yet engaged in the rebounding process. His timing is exquisite as well. It feels like he always jumps at precisely the right time to high point the ball. Basically, Awaka has a myriad of ways to win on the glass. He can out-athlete, out-work, and out-think opponents on the boards. <\/p>\n

Awaka brings some value on the defensive end. His strength can create problems for smaller players when he guards on an island. His straight-line speed is impressive, and it\u2019s genuinely terrifying when he comes flying at shooters on hard closeouts. He\u2019s been able to block a good number of threes because of that burst and bounce (3.4 BLK%). His tools make him tough to score against around the basket, too. He\u2019s also elite at ending possessions thanks to his 26.8 DRB%. Still, his size has some drawbacks, as he doesn\u2019t shift directions very easily, and he can be heavy-footed. Offensively, he\u2019s pretty limited. He\u2019s best using his power to get buckets inside. Still, he\u2019s not a super-efficient finisher, and he\u2019s short by NBA big standards. He doesn\u2019t have much in the way of ball skills, and he\u2019s a subpar free-throw shooter who rarely takes threes, further diminishing his utility.<\/p>\n

Tobe Awaka has been an awesome college player. Unfortunately, his NBA case is tough to make. The \u201cenergy power forward\u201d has started to fade from existence, though the league\u2019s emphasis on pace and rebounding could potentially change that. Simply put, it\u2019s hard to play guys who aren\u2019t center-sized and don\u2019t have wing skills, and that\u2019s where Awaka falls. I do feel like he\u2019s a good bet to wreak havoc in the G League, where teams can get away with playing smaller big men. In my opinion, his best path is to continue to round out his offensive skill set there and hope to pop down the line. He\u2019s an Exhibit-10\/Summer League type of guy for me. <\/p>\n

Unfortunately, there will be no Quick Hits this week, as I was primarily focused on the NBA and the players above, who I hadn\u2019t seen much of before, and that took up most of my tape time. But\u2026<\/p>\n

This column still isn\u2019t over! No Ceilings+ subscribers get an additional bonus section every week! This week, I wrote about Cameron Carr! There is no better way to support the work that we do at No Ceilings than by subscribing to NC+. I believe our track record of consistent, thoughtful work over the past four years speaks for itself. It\u2019s only $8\/month or $80\/year, so please consider supporting the work that we do. You\u2019ll get our pre-season draft guide, access to our Discord, this extra section of my column each week, bonus columns from our entire team, live scouting reports, and MUCH MORE!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This is a tough part of the scouting cycle for me. The freshmen don\u2019t feel so fresh anymore.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":607842,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[7,6,12],"class_list":["post-607841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nba-draft","tag-basketball","tag-nba","tag-nba-draft"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116085287518901087","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/607841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=607841"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/607841\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/607842"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=607841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=607841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=607841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}