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Editor\u2019s Note: Read more NBA coverage from Yahoo Sports here<\/a>. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA or its teams.\u00a0<\/p>\n ***<\/p>\n With\u00a0All-Star Weekend\u00a0in L.A. now concluded, the NBA-watching world\u2019s attention now turns to the league\u2019s annual sprint to the finish line. We\u2019re less than two months away from the end of the 2025-26 NBA regular season, and there\u2019s still\u00a0plenty\u00a0to figure out.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s start figuring it out together, highlighting some of the most important things to keep an eye on between now and mid-April, starting with the race for the Larry O\u2019B:<\/p>\n \u00a0Who\u2019s got the best shot of winning the 2026 NBA championship?<\/p>\n According to\u00a0multiple\u00a0public\u00a0postseason\u00a0projection\u00a0systems, that\u2019d be the Oklahoma City Thunder, who hit the stretch run at 42-14, with a three-game lead over the San Antonio Spurs for the top spot in the Western Conference.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not\u00a0nearly\u00a0as comfortable a cushion as it seemed like the Thunder would have a couple of months ago, as they were annihilating the league in the midst of a 24-1 start and looking like a bona fide threat to challenge the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors\u2019 all-time record of 73 regular-season wins. But the combination of a soft early-season schedule getting tougher \u2014 best exemplified in the arrival of multiple games against the Spurs, a\u00a0compelling stylistic counterpoint\u00a0for the defending champs \u2014 and a series of ailments that has Oklahoma City sitting\u00a0third in total games lost to injury\u00a0has thrown some speed bumps in what had previously been an exceedingly smooth ride. The most notable right now: an\u00a0abdominal strain\u00a0for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the favorite to repeat as the league\u2019s Most Valuable Player, that has sidelined him since Feb. 4.<\/p>\n While the Thunder are no longer on pace to break the all-time wins record, they are still, like, really,\u00a0really\u00a0good: owners of the NBA\u2019s\u00a0No. 4 offense and No. 1 defense, outscoring opponents by a league-leading 12.2 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions. That would be tied with the\u00a02007-08 Celtics\u00a0for the third-best single-season efficiency differential in Cleaning the Glass\u2019 database, which goes back to 2003, behind only the\u00a02016-17 Warriors\u00a0and \u2026\u00a0last year\u2019s Thunder.<\/p>\n Several other metrics \u2014\u00a0average margin of victory,\u00a0Simple Rating System\u00a0score (which accounts for a team\u2019s point differential and strength of schedule),\u00a0era-adjusted net rating\u00a0\u2014 suggest that we\u2019re still looking at one of the five to 10 best teams of the last several decades here, even with all the injuries \u2026 and when they\u2019ve actually had Gilgeous-Alexander, first-time All-Star big man Chet Holmgren and 2024-25 All-NBA selection Jalen Williams on the floor, they\u2019ve\u00a0blown opponents\u2019 doors off. Provided Mark Daigneault can get his main dudes intact and ambulatory by April and May, they\u2019re still looking like the team to beat.<\/p>\n Who\u2019s got the best shot of making sure that doesn\u2019t happen?<\/p>\n Well, how about the Detroit Pistons, who have spent the last three and a half months hearing from everybody about how the Eastern Conference is\u00a0wiiiiiiiiiiiide\u00a0open, in spite of the fact that they\u2019re friggin\u2019 40-13 \u2014 actually a few thousandths of a percentage point\u00a0ahead\u00a0of OKC in the race for the NBA\u2019s best record and, with it, home-court advantage throughout the 2026 NBA playoffs \u2014 with the NBA\u2019s\u00a0second-best defense supported by a top-10 offense, led by surefire All-NBA selection Cade Cunningham?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Or maybe the Spurs team that announced itself with authority in December by overwhelming the Thunder three times in a two-week span; that ranks seventh in offensive efficiency and third on the defensive end; that boasts perhaps the league\u2019s best three-headed backcourt monster in De\u2019Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and rookie Dylan Harper; and that features arguably the sport\u2019s most singular force in 7-foot-forever game-changer Victor Wembanyama?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Detroit and San Antonio have some company in the race to unseat Oklahoma City. The Nuggets, who took the Thunder the distance in the second round of last year\u2019s postseason, still have three-time MVP Nikola Joki\u0107, newly minted All-Star Jamal Murray, the NBA\u2019s best offense and a core that, when healthy, can go toe-to-toe with anybody. (It\u2019s just that the \u201cwhen healthy\u201d part is proving\u00a0tough to\u00a0come by\u00a0right now.) The Rockets and Timberwolves have had their ups and downs of late, but we discount teams that\u00a0took OKC to double-OT\u00a0on opening night and have made the\u00a0last two Western Conference finals\u00a0at our own peril.<\/p>\n (I feel pretty OK discounting the Lakers, though. I mean, if LeBron\u00a0doesn\u2019t think they\u2019re championship-level, then why should we?)<\/p>\n The three East teams jockeying for position below the Pistons can all talk themselves into their chances, too. The New York Knicks (who knocked off Detroit in last spring\u2019s opening round) have shaken off their post-NBA Cup hangover, winning 10 of their last 12 heading into the All-Star break and sitting tied with San Antonio (whom they beat in the NBA Cup final) for the league\u2019s fourth-best net rating. Just ahead of them: The Boston Celtics, who\u2019ve brilliantly navigated an injury-and-finance-motivated offseason overhaul to generate the NBA\u2019s No. 2 offense and No. 8 defense, with Jaylen Brown getting All-NBA buzz, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard performing brilliantly in larger roles, Joe Mazzulla getting the most out of a shuffled-up rotation \u2026 and Jayson Tatum, potentially, getting closer to a return.<\/p>\n And hot on Boston and New York\u2019s tails: The Cleveland Cavaliers, who won 11 of 12 heading into the break, are tied for the\u00a0NBA\u2019s best record since Jan. 1, and who made the biggest win-now addition of any Eastern team at the trade deadline when they\u00a0brought in James Harden to pair with Donovan Mitchell\u00a0in what\u2019s looking in the early going like an awfully potent backcourt:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Whether any of those teams have the goods to outclass Oklahoma City four times in seven games remains to be seen. That more than a handful of teams can harbor realistic hopes of doing so, though, ought to set up a pretty compelling home stretch.<\/p>\n Health obviously matters for everybody \u2026 but for whom might it matter\u00a0most?<\/p>\n It\u2019s not exactly revelatory to say that teams don\u2019t function as well without their best talent, and typically need all hands on deck to win the title. But something doesn\u2019t need to be surprising to be true; which team survives the next seven weeks unscathed will likely go a long way toward determining which of them can survive the postseason gauntlet, too.<\/p>\n Denver jumps out to me. The Nuggets are 17-6 with Aaron Gordon in the lineup, and 18-14 without him. They\u2019ve hammered opponents by a whopping\u00a022.2 points per 100 possessions with Joki\u0107, Murray and Gordon all on the floor\u00a0\u2014 a mark that drops to a still-very-good-but-not-nearly-as-overwhelming 7.4 points-per-100\u00a0when Joki\u0107 and Murray play\u00a0without\u00a0Gordon. Hamstrings are notoriously fickle beasts; Denver\u2019s chances of being able to mount a credible challenge to OKC out West likely rest on whether Gordon\u2019s can hold up come springtime.<\/p>\n I\u2019m keeping an eye on Cleveland in this context, too. Swapping Darius Garland for Harden was a move aimed at limiting injury liability \u2014 while Garland\u2019s a decade younger than the Beard, he\u2019s been less durable overall and missed a ton of time this season dealing with multiple toe sprains \u2014 but the Cavs also come out of the break with Evan Mobley sidelined by a calf strain.<\/p>\n On one hand, \u201ccalf strain\u201d has become perhaps the two scariest words in the NBA, as\u00a0our Tom Haberstroh covered earlier this season, so nobody wants to rush Mobley\u2019s return. On the other, Kenny Atkinson and his coaching staff would surely love to see the reigning Defensive Player of the Year back on the floor as soon as possible, to increase the number of opportunities he has to get reps with Harden and give Cleveland\u2019s revamped core time to jell. (Also: Max Strus, the starting small forward on last season\u2019s 64-win Cavs team, hasn\u2019t played a second as he recovers from offseason surgery to repair a Jones fracture. Do we see him before the playoffs? If so, how long does it take him to get up to speed, and what does that mean for Cleveland\u2019s wing rotation?)<\/p>\n Over in New York, the Knicks will be waiting with bated breath to find out if reserve guard Miles \u201cDeuce\u201d McBride can return in time for the postseason after undergoing surgery to repair a core muscle injury earlier this month. While the trade-deadline addition of Jose Alvarado has helped steady New York\u2019s rotation in his stead, the health of McBride \u2014 the Knicks\u2019 best shooter and point-of-attack defender off the bench, and a player who opens up multiple lineup options for head coach Mike Brown \u2014 could go a long way toward determining if the Knicks have enough firepower to advance beyond the Eastern finals this time around. Ditto for oft-injured center Mitchell Robinson, who has been on a\u00a0load-management plan\u00a0all season, and whose offensive rebounding and paint protection make him an\u00a0incredibly\u00a0important swing piece for New York \u2014 despite averaging fewer than 20 minutes per game.<\/p>\n It\u2019s also worth monitoring a pair of potential returns. If Tatum\u2019s able to get back on the court from his Achilles rupture before the postseason, it could dramatically shift the title chances of a Celtics team that could certainly use his shot creation, shooting, rebounding and size on the perimeter. And while there\u2019s only\u00a0\u201csmall hope\u201d\u00a0that Fred VanVleet can return to the floor before season\u2019s end after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee back in September, that\u2019s not\u00a0no\u00a0hope. Adding an experienced, decorated veteran point guard could do wonders for a Rockets offense that ranks\u00a024th in half-court scoring efficiency\u00a0and 24th in points scored per possession\u00a0overall\u00a0since Jan. 18\u00a0\u2014 the last game that offensive rebounding machine Steven Adams played before suffering a season-ending ankle injury.<\/p>\n We haven\u2019t mentioned them yet, so we\u2019ll take a moment here to consider the Philadelphia 76ers \u2014 30-24, in sixth place in the East, equidistant from the Nos. 2 and 10 seeds \u2014 and note the eternal quandary that is The Health of Joel Embiid.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Since a rocky and rickety start to the season as he worked his way into form and rhythm after being limited to 19 games last season by recurring knee issues, the big fella has looked \u2026 well, kinda-sorta like the big fella! Embiid has averaged 30 points, 8.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists in 33.8 minutes per game over\u00a0the last two months, shooting 55.5% inside the arc, 37.5% beyond it and 86% at the free-throw line while taking nearly 10 freebies a night. The Sixers are 19-12 with Embiid in the lineup, and 11-12 without him; they have\u00a0outscored opponents by 5.5 points-per-100 with him on the floor, and\u00a0been\u00a0outscored by 3.4 points-per-100 with him off it.<\/p>\n Philly has undergone a sea change this season, becoming oriented primarily around the backcourt of All-NBA point guard Tyrese Maxey and rookie thunderbolt VJ Edgecombe. Even so: The best version of the Sixers is the one with the 7-foot, 280-pound behemoth out there dominating from the block and the nail, and making opponents think twice about venturing into the paint \u2026 which is why it arched an eyebrow that Embiid missed the Sixers\u2019 last two games before the All-Star break with\u00a0right knee soreness<\/a>, and that the team plans to\u00a0re-evaluate that knee<\/a>\u00a0after the break.<\/p>\n One last quick note on the champs: While I think Daigneault\u2019s pretty comfortable with just about whatever configuration he needs to throw out there, you\u2019d imagine he\u2019d like the starting five from last year\u2019s title team \u2014 Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Holmgren, center Isaiah Hartenstein and guard Luguentz Dort \u2014 to log significantly more than\u00a041 shared minutes\u00a0over the final couple of months. And if SGA\u2019s abdominal strain and J-Dub\u2019s\u00a0ongoing right hamstring issue<\/a>\u00a0persist \u2026 well, things could get awfully interesting in the title picture.<\/p>\n Did the trade deadline meaningfully impact the playoff race?<\/p>\n Maybe\u00a0\u2014 if the Garland-for-Harden swap elevates the Cavs as much as\u00a0Vegas<\/a>\u00a0and several projection models seem to think it might, and if Ayo Dosunmu can give the Timberwolves the extra snarl and bite they\u2019d been missing in their backcourt.<\/p>\n For the most part, though, the biggest swings at the\u00a02026 NBA trade deadline\u00a0\u2014 Anthony Davis joining Trae Young in Washington, Jaren Jackson Jr. joining Lauri Markkanen in Utah, Ivica Zubac landing in Indiana \u2014 were more about impacting the playoff picture\u00a0next\u00a0season than this one.<\/p>\n (And if you\u2019re interested in reading an\u00a0awful\u00a0lot about this year\u2019s trade deadline, by all means, please dig into\u00a0my Winners and Losers column. It\u2019s not gross old food. It\u2019s tasty leftovers!)<\/p>\n How\u2019s the MVP race shaping up?<\/p>\n Um \u2026 kind of weird, thanks to the collision of multiple first-half injuries and the 65-game threshold for postseason award eligibility.<\/p>\n Gilgeous-Alexander\u2019s case to go back-to-back is already strong on the merits. He\u2019s been\u00a0even better this season than he was last year, carrying the Thunder through the aforementioned raft of injuries back to the top of the West. Best player on the NBA\u2019s best team, first or second in damn near every advanced stat, on pace for the most efficient 30-point season in NBA history, a positive contributor to the NBA\u2019s best defense, the league\u2019s\u00a0top clutch performer\u00a0\u2014 SGA\u2019s earned his spot in pole position in the race. The gap\u2019s widened, though, because so many of his peers missed time early.<\/p>\n With more than 20 games missed due to calf, knee, adductor and ankle injuries, Giannis Antetokounmpo is already eliminated from consideration. A hyperextended left knee put Joki\u0107 on the shelf for 16 games, putting him a whisper away from ineligibility himself. A calf strain and a knee injury have cost Wembanyama 14; a handful of leg injuries have knocked Luka Don\u010di\u0107 out for 12 (and counting). Add it all up, and Gilgeous-Alexander has played several hundred more minutes than all of those would-be contenders; even if they remain eligible, it feels like it\u2019s going to be tough for them to catch him (though his\u00a0own\u00a0abdominal-strain-induced absence could help them close the chasm).<\/p>\n Those heavy hitters missing the ballot would aid the candidacies of players like:<\/p>\n Cade Cunningham, who\u2019s averaging 25.3 points, 9.6 assists (second in the NBA<\/a>, behind Joki\u0107), 5.6 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game, as the straw that stirs the drink for the East-leading Pistons;<\/p>\n Jaylen Brown, efficiently shouldering a Luka-level workload as the No. 1 option for the surprising Celtics;<\/p>\n Anthony Edwards, averaging 29 points per game on 49\/40\/80 shooting splits while learning how to serve as the Wolves\u2019 ostensible point guard;<\/p>\n Donovan Mitchell, for much of the season the lone constant keeping the Cavs afloat in the race for home-court advantage in the East;<\/p>\n Jalen Brunson, the leading scorer, playmaker and crunch-time orchestrator for the third-seeded Knicks; and<\/p>\n Tyrese Maxey, leading the league in minutes, scoring and assisting at career-high levels, and elevating the Sixers amid the absences of Embiid early in the season and Paul George now.<\/p>\n All this MVP talk has me wondering about the races for the other awards. Who\u2019s in the running for those?<\/p>\n Well, here\u2019s Kevin O\u2019Connor\u2019s take on the\u00a0state of the awards races<\/a>\u00a0as of All-Star, plus our staff\u00a0awards roundtable\u00a0at the midway point of the season a couple of weeks back.<\/p>\n The most fun race to monitor is probably Rookie of the Year, where the 2025 NBA Draft\u2019s No. 1 pick, Cooper Flagg of the Dallas Mavericks \u2026<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u2026 and his old college roommate, No. 4 overall pick Kon Knueppel of the Charlotte Hornets \u2026<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u2026 and No. 3 pick VJ Edgecombe of the Philadelphia 76ers \u2026<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u2026 have all been instant-impact, immediate tone-changing starters for their respective teams. It\u2019ll be awesome to watch them try to break through the rookie wall, run through the tape, and try to top each other over the final couple of months.<\/p>\n Speaking of transformational rookies: What\u2019s the State of Our Tanking Union in 2026?<\/p>\n Um \u2026 strong, I guess?<\/p>\n By which I mean, there\u2019s\u00a0definitely\u00a0a lot of tanking going on, with a number of teams engaging in all manner of roster-management chicanery: \u201cexercising extreme caution\u201d in not getting the stars they just traded for on the floor, sitting starters for entire fourth quarters, selectively resting large chunks of your rotation on the same night, etc. \u2014 in pursuit of a plum position at the bottom of the standings. And the NBA has\u00a0definitely\u00a0resumed its efforts to\u00a0try to fine and shame teams out of doing it, with reports circulating that the league\u2019s Board of Governors and competition committee have been talking over prospective fixes. And it was\u00a0definitely\u00a0the main topic of conversation heading into All-Star Weekend, which was\u00a0definitely\u00a0not what Silver and Co. wanted.<\/p>\n I guess strength isn\u2019t necessarily always positive.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n This is what happens when what the NBA says it wants \u2014 every team making its best possible effort to compete to win every night \u2014 collides with the reality that the NBA continues to conduct its annual player entry draft through a lottery system in which losing more increases your chance of getting a better pick.<\/p>\n NBA teams need talent to win, and the people who run NBA teams \u2014 especially those in smaller, non-glamour markets without much history of winning bidding wars for top free agents \u2014 understand that their best shot at securing that talent is by finding it in the draft. As long as that\u2019s true, and as long as there are draft classes capable of delivering those franchise-shifting talents \u2014 like Wembanyama, like Flagg or, potentially, like AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer or Caleb Wilson in the 2026 class \u2014 front offices will use whatever tools and tactics they can to improve their chances of landing one. Unseemly though it may seem.<\/p>\n If the league office wants to levy a six-figure fine for conduct detrimental to the league or flouting the player participation policy \u2026 well, that\u2019s the cost of doing business, and, if the odds wind up in your favor on lottery night, a speeding ticket gladly paid, in the grand scheme of things.<\/p>\n The new changes\u00a0floated back in December\u00a0all feel like half-measures likely to bring their own unintended consequences; more revolutionary proposals like\u00a0abolishing the draft,\u00a0The Wheel,\u00a0tombstone wins\u00a0or\u00a0punishing tanking by taking away teams\u2019 ping-pong balls\u00a0feel too radical for this league office to seriously consider. Which leaves us exactly where we\u2019ve been for more than a decade now: with everybody just kind of yelling at, past and around each other, while executives call the plays they think will give them the best chance of success, coaches grit their teeth and run them, and players get caught in the crossfire.<\/p>\n In any event: The three teams currently in position to have the best odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft are the 12-44 Kings, 14-39 Wizards and the 26-30 Hawks, thanks to the much-discussed deal on the night of the 2025 draft that sent Derik Queen from Atlanta to New Orleans in exchange for control of the 15-41 Pels\u2019 unprotected 2026 first.<\/p>\n Just behind that top three: the 15-40 Pacers and the 15-38 Nets. Fall into the bottom five, and you\u2019ve got at least a 10.5% chance of winning the draft lottery, and at least a 42% chance of a top-four pick.<\/p>\n Some other bottom-of-the-standings things to keep an eye on:<\/p>\n The Wizards owe their 2026 first to the Knicks if it lands outside the top eight picks. If they finish with a bottom-four record, they\u2019ll be guaranteed to keep it; finish with the fifth-worst record or better, and there\u2019s a chance it\u2019ll convey to New York. This is why I wouldn\u2019t anticipate us seeing very much of new additions Trae Young and Anthony Davis over the final two months of the season. (If the pick doesn\u2019t convey, the Knicks will instead get two future second-round picks.)<\/p>\n Similarly, the Jazz owe their 2026 first to the Thunder if it falls outside the top eight, thanks to the\u00a0Great Derrick Favors Salary Dump of 2021. If the pick lands eighth or lower, though, the Jazz keep it,\u00a0and\u00a0their pick debt is extinguished, meaning OKC gets\u00a0nothing\u00a0moving forward. In a related story, the Jazz were\u00a0just fined half a million dollars\u00a0for not playing stars Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen in the fourth quarter of a pair of games. (The Jazz announced Thursday that Jackson\u00a0will miss the remainder of the regular season\u00a0after undergoing knee surgery.)<\/p>\n As part of the deal at last Thursday\u2019s trade deadline that brought them bruising center Ivica Zubac, the Pacers owe the Clippers their 2026 first-round pick \u2014 but\u00a0only\u00a0if it winds up being fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth. As it stands, Indiana \u2014 which entered the All-Star break with consecutive wins over the Knicks and Nets\u00a0\u2014 has about a 48% shot at landing a top-four pick and a 52% chance of giving the pick to L.A., according to\u00a0Tankathon. There are going to be some folks white-knuckling it in Indianapolis on lottery night. (Oh, and we\u2019re probably\u00a0not going to be seeing Zubac for a while, either.)<\/p>\n Two other picks currently slated to be in the lottery will be on the move, too. The Spurs have the rights to the Hawks\u2019 2026 first-round pick from\u00a02022\u2019s Dejounte Murray trade, and the Thunder have the Clippers\u2019 2026 first from the\u00a02019 blockbuster\u00a0that sent Paul George to L.A. and SGA to OKC.<\/p>\n Which\u00a0other\u00a0parts of the standings should we be keeping a close eye on?<\/p>\n Let\u2019s go with:<\/p>\n The tops of each conference, with just one game separating OKC and Detroit for the league\u2019s best record and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs;<\/p>\n Nos. 2 through 4 in the East, with the Celtics, Knicks and Cavaliers separated by a game and a half; and<\/p>\n The Western fights for both home-court advantage in Round 1 and the right to avoid the play-in, with just three games separating the third-place Nuggets and seventh-place Suns, with the Rockets, Wolves and Lakers all nestled in-between.<\/p>\n Anything else?<\/p>\n Well, for one thing, Kevin Durant needs\u00a0431 more points to pass Michael Jordan for fifth place on the all-time scoring list. Considering he\u2019s averaging just under 26 a game, he\u2019s got a good chance of getting there in late March, provided he stays healthy. That\u2019s kind of wild.<\/p>\n It\u2019s also worth keeping an eye on how the final couple of months set the table for some major offseason stories.<\/p>\n Now that Giannis stayed in Milwaukee past the trade deadline, when does he return to the lineup, and what does the state of play look like for the Bucks heading into yet another high-stakes offseason? Will the red-hot Hornets sprint past the largely moribund Magic and Heat in the Eastern play-in picture? If so, might significant changes need to be in the offing in Orlando and Miami?<\/p>\n Can Stephen Curry get healthy enough to rip off a post-ASB heater and make Golden State dangerous in the play-in? What can Ja Morant and the Grizzlies do to rehabilitate his value ahead of a potential offseason trade? Will the Clippers find themselves seriously considering starting life after Kawhi Leonard? (Will the NBA\u2019s findings in the ongoing Aspiration investigation\u00a0force\u00a0them to?)<\/p>\n Are we watching the final weeks of LeBron James as a Los Angeles Laker? Hell, are we watching the final weeks of LeBron in the NBA,\u00a0period?<\/p>\n \u2026 maybe not.<\/p>\n LeBron James 28 PTS, 10 REB, 12 AST, 1 BLK, 10\/20 FG, 6\/7 FT, 60.7% TS vs Mavericks https:\/\/t.co\/lnbo4nnH1W<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/Oop4v6UENB<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) February 13, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n The biggest testament to LeBron\u2019s absurd longevity is that at 41 he just put up a 28\/10\/12 and there\u2019s nothing shocking about it<\/p>\n