{"id":617043,"date":"2026-02-22T04:16:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-22T04:16:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/617043\/"},"modified":"2026-02-22T04:16:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-22T04:16:32","slug":"which-of-our-beat-writers-performed-best-in-nfl-mock-draft-picking-winners-and-losers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/617043\/","title":{"rendered":"Which of our beat writers performed best in NFL mock draft? Picking winners and losers"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 2026 NFL Draft<\/a> is still more two months away, but that means we have time to dive even deeper into our latest mock draft<\/a> before the combine gets underway in Indianapolis. Earlier this week,\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s beat reporters made their picks for Round 1 (and parts of Round 2, for those teams without first-round selections). How\u2019d they do?<\/p>\n

Well, after last year\u2019s actual draft, I took an analytical approach to grading the results for each team<\/a>. I\u2019m using the same methodology to see which teams came out as winners and losers of our beat writer mock draft.<\/p>\n

Before we get started, let\u2019s talk about the process. When I analyze drafts, I take into account value of the draft pick, contract value, position of the player drafted, as well as any trades made to acquire the pick. For this exercise, I only take into accounts trades that occur during the draft, not made prior. Essentially, I\u2019m able to put a dollar value on each pick, compare it to the player selected and adjust its value based on that player\u2019s position.<\/p>\n

To get a sense of a prospect\u2019s ranking within the class, I\u2019ll be using our current consensus big board<\/a>.<\/p>\n

WinnersLas Vegas Raiders (Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, No. 1)<\/p>\n

It\u2019s easy to gain the most value when you have the No. 1 pick, and it\u2019s even easier when the top player on the consensus board is a quarterback. Mendoza plays the NFL\u2019s premier position and is considered the draft\u2019s top player.<\/p>\n

I\u2019d expect Mendoza to provide around $76 million of value over his rookie contract, which is considerably more than the $50 million for which the Raiders would be on hook in drafting him.<\/p>\n

Cleveland Browns (Utah OT Spencer Fano, No. 6; Texas A&M WR KC Concepion, No. 24)<\/p>\n

Fano actually comes in as a slight reach \u2014 he was the sixth pick but ranks 10th on the consensus board. When you adjust for positional value, however, this pick becomes a huge plus for the Browns.<\/p>\n

You may wind up asking why the Browns rank ahead of the Cardinals on this list, given that Fano checks in lower than Francis Mauigoa at the same position.\u00a0 That\u2019s where the cost of the draft pick matters. Mauigoa edges Fano by one spot on the consensus big board, while the difference between the third and sixth pick is more than $5 million \u2014 enough, especially when combined with Concepcion\u2019s addition, to swing the edge in Cleveland\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n

Kansas City Chiefs (Ohio State WR Carnell Tate, No. 9)<\/p>\n

After a disappointing season, the Chiefs hold a top-10 pick. And in our beat writer mock, they hit by selecting the draft\u2019s top wide receiver.<\/p>\n

Though positional need isn\u2019t factored into my process, you can\u2019t deny the need for the Chiefs. They\u2019ll be looking for several receiving options, especially with an aging Travis Kelce still deciding on his future<\/a>. Tate ranks eighth on the big board, and when you adjust for the fact that he plays a premium position, the Chiefs find themselves well in the surplus \u2014 even more so when you consider a running back (Jeremiyah Love) came off the board at No. 8.<\/p>\n

Washington Commanders (Miami edge Rueben Bain Jr., No. 7)<\/p>\n

The Commanders had one of the worst defenses in the league last season, per my NFL Projection Model, so Bain would have a chance to make an immediate impact off the edge. He is one of the top three defensive players in this draft, and it wouldn\u2019t be a surprise if he was the first defensive player selected come April. Washington getting him at No. 7 provides some nice value in this mock.<\/p>\n

Bain ranks sixth on the consensus big board and plays a premier position (see a pattern here?). He\u2019d give the Commanders a big-time talent.<\/p>\n

Arizona Cardinals (Miami OT Francis Mauigoa, No. 3)<\/p>\n

I already touched on this pick in the Cleveland section, and the Cardinals see slightly less value because of the financial ramifications of picking No. 3 versus No. 6.<\/p>\n

Either way, Mauigoa would slide right into a Cardinals offense that will be going through an overhaul under new head coach Mike LaFleur.<\/p>\n

LosersDallas Cowboys (Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy, No. 12; Georgia LB CJ Allen, No. 20)<\/p>\n

My model is pretty neutral on the McCoy pick. It did not, however, like Dallas\u2019 second Round 1 pick at all.<\/p>\n

Allen at No. 20 is quite a reach on a player who doesn\u2019t play a premium position. Allen is No. 28 on the consensus board, and The Athletic\u2019s Dane Brugler has him ranked 32nd in his most recent top 100<\/a>. So, not only were there higher-ranked prospects on the board for that Cowboys pick, there were several, including the next two players selected, Cashius Howell and Keldric Faulk \u2014 pass rushers who could\u2019ve helped Dallas\u2019 cause.<\/p>\n

New Orleans Saints (Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love, No. 8)<\/p>\n

Since the common theme here has to do with premium positions, it\u2019s no surprise that the Saints are on this list as a mock draft \u201closer.\u201d<\/p>\n

If we use some revisionist history, the Raiders selected Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 pick last year and the Falcons used the No. 8 pick on Bijan Robinson in 2023, and neither head coach at the time of those picks is still with their team. It\u2019s not that Love or Jeanty or Robinson can\u2019t become great players, it\u2019s just that it\u2019s unlikely they earn a second contract and the surplus value on their rookie contracts isn\u2019t very high.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, teams selecting in the top 10 usually don\u2019t have the pieces in place to really gain the benefits of a great running back. The Saints fall in that category.<\/p>\n

Baltimore Ravens (Penn State IOL Vega Ioane, No. 14)<\/p>\n

The Ravens also are victims of selecting a non-premium position with a top-15 pick. The contract value of the No. 14 pick comes in at around $28 million total over five years (remember, you really want to be hunting surplus value here); if Ioane becomes one of the best interior offensive lineman in football, his value would be around $20-$22 million per year.<\/p>\n

Sure, that\u2019s a significant surplus. But if you compare it to, say, a wide receiver (the position of the next two picks in this mock), that player would be providing $40-plus million in value per year. And the same argument would stand if Ioane turned into a league-average starter \u2014 the surplus value just isn\u2019t there when hitting on draft picks is so vital because those picks are cheap.<\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts (Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez, No. 47)<\/p>\n

A rare second-round pick finds itself on the \u201closers\u201d list.<\/p>\n

I was a bit surprised here. Rodriguez is a good player, don\u2019t get me wrong, but this is quite a reach at No. 47 \u2014 Rodriguez ranks 82nd on the consensus big board and 64th on Brugler\u2019s top 100. That\u2019s a big gap for a second-round pick at a non-premium position, and that\u2019s before you get into the fact that the Colts traded a lot of draft capital this past season for Sauce Gardner.<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Bengals (Ohio State LB Sonny Styles, No. 10)<\/p>\n

This is a tough one, I\u2019ll admit. Right now, Styles is considered a linebacker, but he does have quite a bit of versatility that could result in him playing a big nickel type of role. In that case, I doubt the Bengals would fall into this category. However, there is some risk as Styles isn\u2019t a sure bet to fill that role. (There will be a similar conversation surrounding with another Ohio State standout, LB\/edge Arvell Reese).<\/p>\n

But for the Bengals, a team void of much talent on the defensive side of the ball, I\u2019d understand the pick because of Styles\u2019 upside. His coverage skills need work, though. If Styles isn\u2019t able to fit the nickel\/safety role because he can\u2019t hone those skills, picking a linebacker in the top 10 would be bad for business.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 2026 NFL Draft is still more two months away, but that means we have time to dive…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":617044,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[7,6,12,9],"class_list":{"0":"post-617043","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nba-draft","8":"tag-basketball","9":"tag-nba","10":"tag-nba-draft","11":"tag-nfl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116112352001342831","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/617043","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=617043"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/617043\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/617044"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=617043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=617043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=617043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}