NCAA basketball odds<\/a> that will be posted once the tournament field is revealed.\u00a0<\/p>\nMichigan<\/p>\n
Unsurprisingly, the current national championship favorite is a likely Final Four team.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Dusty May went to the Final Four with a far inferior team at Florida Atlantic. Michigan itself has a history of deep tournament runs, including an appearance in the title game in 2018. Last year, the Wolverines made the Sweet 16 as a No. 5 seed.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Duke<\/p>\n
Again, this shouldn\u2019t be surprising for most basketball fans, but Duke is a likely Final Four team.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Duke has a high tournament floor not just because of its program history but also its immediate history. The program has made two Final Fours in the last four years, and it has the clear-cut best player in college basketball this year with Cam Boozer. It seems almost impossible that the Blue Devils would miss the Elite Eight.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Arizona<\/p>\n
Arizona is a classic tournament underachiever. Arizona has been a 1, 2, 2, and 4 seed over the last four years, but has not made it past the Sweet 16. Under previous head coach Sean Miller, Arizona also had multiple strong seasons \u2013 including a season where they were a No. 1 seed in 2014 \u2013 but the Wildcats never made it past the Elite Eight.\u00a0<\/p>\n
So, from a historical lens, Arizona is a strong candidate to lose in the second week of the tournament, despite a fast-growing futures handle. That 1997 championship feels like a lifetime ago.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Iowa State<\/p>\n
Iowa State has not made it past the Sweet 16 in 25 years.<\/p>\n
The Cyclones may or may not finish the season as a No. 1 seed in the tournament. There are several teams in the mix for the final spot, and the difference in difficulty between the No. 1 and No. 2 lines is significant.<\/p>\n
Especially if Iowa State is ultimately a No. 2 seed, a Sweet 16 loss feels in line with historical performance.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Houston<\/p>\n
Kelvin Sampson is an excellent tournament coach. In the last five years, Houston has made the Sweet 16 every season, plus three Elite Eights and two Final Fours.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This year, Houston\u2019s propensity for offensive droughts must be accounted for, which will likely limit how far I\u2019m personally willing to advance the team in the bracket. But the general history says Houston is a great bet to win at least three games.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Illinois<\/p>\n
Brad Underwood has had some good teams at Illinois over the last decade, but he\u2019s only made it out of the first week once.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Advancing Illinois beyond the Sweet 16 carries some risk.<\/p>\n
Purdue<\/p>\n
Matt Painter and Purdue had developed a negative tournament reputation even before losing to Fairleigh Dickinson as a No. 1 seed in 2023.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Since 2017, though, Purdue has reached at least the Sweet 16 in six of nine tournaments, including an Elite Eight in \u201819 and a national runner-up finish in \u201824. The Boilermakers are older, experienced, and a solid Sweet 16 pick.\u00a0<\/p>\n
UConn\u00a0<\/p>\n
Pick against UConn at your own peril. Dan Hurley is 13-1 in the NCAA Tournament since 2023, and the Huskies played eventual champion Florida within an inch of its life as a No. 8 seed in the lone loss last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Matchups could matter, but UConn is a team with clear Final Four potential.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Florida\u00a0<\/p>\n
This is the toughest read of any major team, in my opinion.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This Florida team isn\u2019t as talented as last year, nor does it retain the insane clutch shotmaking of Walter Clayton Jr. The Gators have been able to beat up on a 2026 SEC that has plenty of quality depth but not much top-end talent.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Florida has won three national championships in 20 years; it\u2019s also missed the tournament entirely or lost during the first week in every year but two since Billy Donovan left in 2015. One was last year, when they won the championship. The other was 2017, when Michael White coached them to the Elite Eight.\u00a0<\/p>\n
I could make a pretty compelling case to drop Florida in your bracket\u2019s Round of 32, but it\u2019ll be heavily matchup-dependent.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Kansas\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Jayhawks won the national title in 2022. Since then, they\u2019ve lost in the first round in every other NCAA Tournament dating back to 2019.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Especially with the weirdness surrounding Darryn Peterson, Kansas is a major risk to lose in the Round of 32.<\/p>\n
Gonzaga<\/p>\n
Picking Gonzaga in March is like investing in a mutual fund. You\u2019re not going to blow anyone\u2019s mind, but you will get solid, consistent returns.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Mark Few has had the Zags in the tournament as a No. 5 seed or better in seven of eight years since 2017. In those seven seasons, the program has made seven Sweet 16s, four Elite Eights, and two national championship games.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Gonzaga should be a Sweet 16 or Elite Eight pick, depending on matchup preferences.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Nebraska<\/p>\n
Tread carefully. Historically, the Nebraska men\u2019s basketball program has had virtually no NCAA Tournament success. Like, ever.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Huskers never made the tournament prior to its mid-1980s expansion to a 64-team bracket; since then, they\u2019re 0-8 in tournament games and have never advanced to the Round of 32.<\/p>\n
Because of how good this year\u2019s team is, there\u2019s a great chance that the skid finally ends this year. But think hard about the opportunity cost of advancing Nebraska into a round like the Elite Eight. The program doesn\u2019t have that kind of muscle memory for winning games in March, and head coach Fred Hoiberg mostly underachieved at Iowa State in the early 2010s. He never made it past the Sweet 16 and advanced past the Round of 32 only once.<\/p>\n
Virginia\u00a0<\/p>\n
Other than its luckbox run to the 2019 national championship, UVA has been absolutely dreadful in the NCAA Tournament over the last 10 years. Since 2017, the Cavaliers have only advanced past the first week of the tournament once, in the year they won the title, despite being a No. 5 seed or better on five occasions. They were a No. 1 seed twice.<\/p>\n
With that said, be careful about writing off UVA this year. Tony Bennett\u2019s stagnation-prone offense is gone, and Ryan Odom\u2019s team appears more balanced than previous incarnations. Virginia is a team where it\u2019s probably worth ignoring the history and focusing solely on the tournament path.<\/p>\n
Vanderbilt\u00a0<\/p>\n
Vanderbilt has only one tournament win since its Sweet 16 appearance in 2007.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Mark Byington looks poised to change that this year and has personally been in the NCAA Tournament in each of the last two years (Vanderbilt \u201825, JMU \u201824).\u00a0<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t go crazy, but you can probably count on a win or two.<\/p>\n
Michigan State<\/p>\n
Most college hoops fans are familiar with Tom Izzo\u2019s long history of success during NCAA Tournament season. But let\u2019s take a What Have You Done For Me Lately approach here.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In the last five seasons, Izzo\u2019s Spartans have lost in the First Four once, lost in the Round of 32 twice, and lost in the second week of the tournament twice.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s team plays good defense and rebounds well, but the offense can be hit or miss.<\/p>\n
Both the history and this year\u2019s general team fundamentals point to a good-not-great tournament performance. That probably averages out to a Sweet 16 appearance.<\/p>\n
Texas Tech\u00a0<\/p>\n
Texas Tech has quietly been a strong tournament performer over the last decade because of multiple good head coaching hires and a consistent defensive culture and intensity.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Current head coach Grant McCasland got the Red Raiders to the Elite Eight in Year 2 last season, and he\u2019ll surely want to build on that this year. The Final Four odds will ultimately depend on the draw, but a Sweet 16 appearance looks like a safe choice.<\/p>\n
Best NCAA Tournament Teams (2026)<\/p>\n
Michigan
\nDuke
\nHouston
\nUConn
\nGonzaga
\nTexas Tech<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On Feb. 21, the NCAA selection committee offered a preview of its top-four seed lines, confirming which of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":625089,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3723],"tags":[7,217,231,772,1544],"class_list":{"0":"post-625088","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-basketball","8":"tag-basketball","9":"tag-college-basketball","10":"tag-ncaa","11":"tag-ncaa-basketball","12":"tag-ncaab"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116134273601686844","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625088","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=625088"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625088\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/625089"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=625088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=625088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=625088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}