{"id":625868,"date":"2026-02-26T11:28:48","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T11:28:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/625868\/"},"modified":"2026-02-26T11:28:48","modified_gmt":"2026-02-26T11:28:48","slug":"2026-ncaa-tournament-projections-virginia-unc-trending-up-st-louis-falls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/625868\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Virginia, UNC Trending Up; St. Louis Falls"},"content":{"rendered":"

College basketball fans were treated to a loaded slate of games to begin the week, as the ACC made a statement with several notable results.<\/p>\n

No. 18 North Carolina opened the week with a 77-74 win over No. 24 Louisville, while No. 11 Virginia<\/a> delivered a dominant victory over NC State on Tuesday night. Duke<\/a> added to the league\u2019s strong showing, routing Notre Dame 100-56 \u2014 the Irish\u2019s worst home loss since 1898.<\/p>\n

Both North Carolina and Virginia moved up in FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy\u2019s latest NCAA Tournament seed list. The Cavaliers climbed to the 4-line, while the Tar Heels jumped to a No. 5 seed.<\/p>\n

Duke, now 26-2 overall and 14-1 in ACC play, is the top overall seed in DeCourcy’s seed list. The Blue Devils are joined by Michigan, Arizona and UConn on the 1-line.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Cameron Boozer #12 of the Duke Blue Devils prepares to shoot a free throw during a game against Clemson. (Photo by Lance King\/Getty Images) <\/p>\n

[COLLEGE HOOPS: Michigan Setback Sparks Lessons<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Iowa State, fresh off a 75-59 victory over Utah, is the top seed on the 2-line. Illinois, Purdue and Houston are the other teams that make up DeCourcy’s No. 2 seeds. The Illini will look to bounce back following a devesting loss to UCLA<\/a> last weekend when they battle No. 2 Michigan in a Big Ten<\/a> showdown Friday night on FOX.<\/p>\n

Kansas<\/a>, Florida, Gonzaga and Nebraska<\/a> make up DeCourcy’s No. 3 seeds. The Jayhawks are fresh off a statement win over then-No. 5 Houston on Monday night, while the Gators, Zags and Cornhuskers are all in action Wednesday night.<\/p>\n

As for the No. 4 seeds in DeCourcy’s latest seed list, it’s Virginia at the top of the list, joined by Michigan State<\/a>, Alabama and Texas Tech. Tom Izzo’s Spartans have a chance to boost their tournament r\u00e9sum\u00e9 if they can secure a victory over No. 8 Purdue on Thursday night.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Jeremy Fears Jr. #1 of the Michigan State Spartans looks on during the first half of a game against Michigan . (Photo by Aaron J. Thornton\/Getty Images) <\/p>\n

Here is a complete look at DeCourcy’s NCAA Tournament seed list:<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds<\/p>\n

1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Connecticut<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/p>\n

5. Iowa State
6. Illinois
7. Purdue
8. Houston<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/p>\n

9. Kansas
10. Florida
11. Gonzaga
12. Nebraska<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/p>\n

13. Virginia
14. Michigan State
15. Alabama
16. Texas Tech<\/p>\n

No. 5 seeds<\/p>\n

17. St. John\u2019s
18. Arkansas
19. Vanderbilt
20. North Carolina<\/p>\n

No. 6 seeds<\/p>\n

21. Tennessee
22. Louisville
23. BYU<\/a>
24. Villanova<\/p>\n

No. 7 seeds<\/p>\n

25. Wisconsin
26. UCF<\/a>
27. Utah State
28. Saint Louis<\/p>\n

No. 8 seeds<\/p>\n

29. NC State
30. Kentucky
31. Miami Hurricanes
32. Miami RedHawks<\/p>\n

No. 9 seeds<\/p>\n

33. Georgia
34. Saint Mary\u2019s
35. SMU<\/a>
36. Iowa<\/p>\n

No. 10 seeds<\/p>\n

37. UCLA
38. Texas A&M
39. Clemson
40. Missouri<\/p>\n

No. 11 seeds<\/p>\n

41. Texas
42. Santa Clara
43. Indiana v. 44. TCU<\/a>
45. California v. 46. VCU<\/p>\n

No. 12 seeds<\/p>\n

47. Belmont
48. Yale
49. South Florida
50. Liberty<\/p>\n

No. 13 seeds<\/p>\n

51. Stephen F. Austin
52. UNC<\/a> Wilmingon
53. High Point
54. Hawaii<\/p>\n

No. 14 seeds<\/p>\n

55. Utah Valley
56. Austin Peay
57. North Dakota State
58. East Tennessee State<\/p>\n

No. 15 seeds<\/p>\n

59. Portland State
60. Wright State
61. Navy
62. Merrimack<\/p>\n

No. 16 seeds<\/p>\n

63. Appalachian State
64. UMBC<\/a>
65. LIU<\/a>
66. Bethune-Cookman
67. Southeast Missouri State
68. Morgan State<\/p>\n

And it\u2019s never too early to check in on the bubble.<\/p>\n

According to DeCourcy’s seed list, Auburn, Ohio State, Virginia Tech and USC<\/a> are the first four teams out of the tournament, while New Mexico, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State and San Diego State are the next four out.<\/p>\n

Selection Sunday is less than one month away, and this list will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy\u2019s latest seed list offers a clear snapshot of who\u2019s rising, who\u2019s falling and which programs are already building the r\u00e9sum\u00e9s they\u2019ll need when March arrives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"College basketball fans were treated to a loaded slate of games to begin the week, as the ACC…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":625869,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3723],"tags":[1982,7,217,691,950,4250,2811,7367,3730,3491,1043,231,772,1544,8905,9449,12513,4262,923,849],"class_list":{"0":"post-625868","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-basketball","8":"tag-arizona-wildcats","9":"tag-basketball","10":"tag-college-basketball","11":"tag-duke-blue-devils","12":"tag-florida-gators","13":"tag-gonzaga-bulldogs","14":"tag-houston-cougars","15":"tag-illinois-fighting-illini","16":"tag-kansas-jayhawks","17":"tag-michigan-state-spartans","18":"tag-michigan-wolverines","19":"tag-ncaa","20":"tag-ncaa-basketball","21":"tag-ncaab","22":"tag-nebraska-cornhuskers","23":"tag-ohio-state-buckeyes","24":"tag-purdue-boilermakers","25":"tag-ucla-bruins","26":"tag-uconn-huskies","27":"tag-usc-trojans"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116136703676932084","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=625868"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625868\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/625869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=625868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=625868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=625868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}