{"id":660741,"date":"2026-03-16T06:25:25","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T06:25:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/660741\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T06:25:25","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T06:25:25","slug":"2026-ncaa-tournament-bracket-picks-why-c-j-moore-has-michigan-winning-the-title","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/660741\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks: Why C.J. Moore has Michigan winning the title"},"content":{"rendered":"

Editor\u2019s note: This article is part of the\u00a0Bracket Central<\/a>\u00a0series, an inside look at the run-up to the men\u2019s & women\u2019s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.<\/p>\n

We could look back at 2023 as the final year of actual March Madness. Florida Atlantic, out of Conference USA, made the Final Four. San Diego State, out of the Mountain West, made the national championship game. Princeton, ranked 116th when the bracket was revealed, made a Sweet 16 run. Fairleigh Dickinson, ranked 312 and a No. 16 seed, upset top-seeded Purdue.<\/p>\n

Since then, name, image and likeness and the transfer portal have funneled the best talent to high-majors. Among the six starters who still had eligibility remaining in the Final Four game between Florida Atlantic and San Diego State,\u00a0only one didn\u2019t finish his career elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Last year, only two true mid-majors (Drake and McNeese) won tourney games. Neither advanced past the second round. Three other teams I\u2019d consider \u201cmid-major pluses\u201d (Saint Mary\u2019s, New Mexico and Colorado State) also made the second round but did not advance to the second weekend.<\/p>\n

At KenPom, where Ken Pomeroy has been tracking adjusted efficiency margins since 1997, there\u2019s a magic number that quantifies a truly elite team \u2014 plus-35, meaning a team would be expected to outscore the average team by 35 points per 100 possessions. Only 10 teams have ever finished the year above 35. All have made the Final Four.<\/p>\n

Four were the No. 1 seeds last season.<\/p>\n

Duke, Michigan and Arizona are above that mark this season, suggesting we could have another very chalky March and April.<\/p>\n

For the good of the NCAA Tournament, I hope I\u2019m wrong. But last year, I was seeing similar trends<\/a>, and among those mid-majors who won a game, they all entered the tourney as top-60 teams on KenPom. I\u2019d be hesitant to pick anyone outside that top 60 to advance at all and definitely not far. (Miami (Ohio), for those wondering, ranks 93rd.)<\/p>\n

And, before you criticize my boring picks, remember this: There are bench guys on high-major teams making six figures. The divide between the haves and have-nots has never been bigger.<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t mean the tourney will be boring. The talent this year is near the best in the modern era because NIL has really good players staying in school longer, top international talent coming to college and this freshman class is one of the best ever.<\/p>\n

I always start my bracket by picking my champ first. My preseason pick was Michigan, and even with the loss in Sunday\u2019s Big Ten final, I\u2019m sticking with Dusty May\u2019s team. No one in college basketball is better than motivated Michigan, and Sunday\u2019s loss might be a good opportunity to refocus and add an edge.<\/p>\n

First
Round<\/p>\n

Second
Round<\/p>\n

Sweet 16<\/p>\n

Elite
Eight<\/p>\n

Final
Four<\/p>\n

Final
Four<\/p>\n

Elite
Eight<\/p>\n

Sweet 16<\/p>\n

Second
Round<\/p>\n

First
Round<\/p>\n

\t\tEast<\/p>\n

Final Four pick: Duke<\/p>\n

The foot injury to Patrick Ngongba II has me a little nervous about the Blue Devils. Jon Scheyer has a great second option in Maliq Brown, but it just takes one game of foul trouble to Brown or star Cameron Boozer for that Ngongba absence to matter. Ohio State is talented and could be a potential trip-up spot. Ngongba\u2019s status is still up in the air, but I\u2019m going to bet he\u2019s back by the second weekend. Michigan State has the bigs to match up with Duke and played the Devils close back in early December. UConn, when on, is also good enough to beat Duke. The injury to Caleb Foster also has me a little wary of picking Duke, but I\u2019ve also done a total 180 on Duke this year. I\u2019m done doubting the Blue Devils. The combination of their defense and Boozer will get them to Indy.<\/p>\n

Most stressful decision: UCLA over UConn<\/p>\n

The Bruins have been playing great and are much better than a No. 7 seed. The injuries to Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau will be important to monitor this week. If they\u2019re healthy, I think you could argue that UCLA\u2019s talent is just as good as UConn\u2019s. The Huskies\u2019 Tarris Reed is the guy who could make this pick look dumb. The Huskies have an advantage in the Reed-Xavier Booker matchup. But UConn is limping into the tournament and I\u2019m skeptical of the Big East this year. The league was not good \u2014 only three teams in the tourney \u2014 and while UConn went 17-3, it wasn\u2019t a dominant 17-3. So I\u2019m fading the Big East and the Huskies.<\/p>\n

Best chance at an upset: South Florida over Louisville<\/p>\n

The Cards have been untrustworthy and it\u2019s hard to know if star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. (back injury) will be a part of the tournament. Louisville is at its best when it\u2019s getting paint touches and able to score efficiently both from beyond the arc and in the paint. South Florida has a good 2-point defense and high-major talent. Plus, star guard Wes Enis is on a heater, averaging 23.4 points over his last five games.<\/p>\n

Matchup I hope to see: Duke against Michigan State or UConn<\/p>\n

Either could be an elite regional final. Star coaches. Potentially, a chance for Tom Izzo to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2019. Both of those teams at the bottom of the region have the frontcourts to match up with Duke and potentially give Boozer issues. I\u2019m almost talking myself into picking the Spartans, because I\u2019m a believer in the Big Ten and the Foster injury really could matter for Duke. And who knows if Duke will even get there, because Rick Pitino, who starts three bigs at St. John\u2019s, also has the size to match Duke\u2019s. Whether it\u2019s St. John\u2019s or Kansas in the Sweet 16, there\u2019s going to likely be a lot of star power in D.C.<\/p>\n

West<\/p>\n

Final Four pick: Arizona<\/p>\n

My favorite Arizona stat: The Wildcats have allowed only two kill shots (a run of 10-0 or more) all season, and one came in mop-up minutes in a blowout over Norfolk State and the other in Saturday\u2019s Big 12 tourney championship win over Houston. The Wildcats responded to a 14-0 run by scoring on six of their next seven possessions. No team has been more consistent from game to game. Tommy Lloyd always has an awesome offense, but the separator this year is his defense. That\u2019s why the Cats will end up in the Final Four for the first time since 2001. Pretty wild for a program this consistently good. Arizona is due.<\/p>\n

Most stressful decision: Wisconsin over Arkansas<\/p>\n

These are two teams I would have assumed pre-bracket would end up in the Sweet 16. Both have excellent guard play and bigs who can shoot. I\u2019m going with the veterans at Wisconsin. No one is playing better right now on the perimeter than the duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell.<\/p>\n

Best chance at an upset: Wisconsin over Arizona in the Sweet 16<\/p>\n

I\u2019m putting my trust in the Wildcats, but they\u2019re going to have a tough Sweet 16 game, whether it\u2019s Wisconsin or Arkansas, because they have the shotmaking to make Arizona rethink putting center Motiejus Krivas in drop coverage in the pick-and-roll. Michigan, a similarly built team to Arizona, really had trouble with the Badgers. Plus, Wisconsin has road wins this year at Michigan, Illinois and Purdue. It can beat elite teams.<\/p>\n

Matchup I hope to see: Arizona-Purdue<\/p>\n

Two years ago, the best environment I attended was Purdue-Arizona at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Purdue won that one, and Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer were fantastic. Both would likely have strong followings and could provide a terrific game. The Boilers finally look to be playing to their ceiling after struggling down the stretch of the regular season. Purdue always seems to be in classic regional finals. This could be one of those games.<\/p>\n

Midwest<\/p>\n

Final Four pick: Michigan<\/p>\n

There are a few landmines in this region. Saint Louis is limping into the tournament, but has the potential to catch fire from 3. Same for Alabama. The issue is that the Crimson Tide has struggled with big teams. Iowa State is another team that can get hot from deep, but it also doesn\u2019t have great size inside. The Wolverines should be able to overwhelm everyone in this region.<\/p>\n

Most stressful decision: Virginia over Tennessee<\/p>\n

These feel like two evenly matched teams and both are similarly built around defense and rebounding. I trust Virginia\u2019s bigs slightly more. Thijs De Ridder will need to have a good game and bounce back after scoring just five points in Saturday\u2019s loss to Duke.<\/p>\n

Best chance at an upset: Akron over Texas Tech<\/p>\n

I\u2019m just barely breaking my rule here. Akron is currently No. 64 at KenPom. Texas Tech is ripe for an upset without JT Toppin and with Christian Anderson potentially hobbled. Texas Tech has said Anderson will play, but he injured his groin at the Big 12 Tournament. The Red Raiders aren\u2019t great defensively and Akron has one of the best mid-major offenses in the country. Akron is the smallest team in the tourney and that could be an issue against some high-majors, but not Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are the smallest high-major team in the field.<\/p>\n

Matchup I hope to see: Michigan-Iowa State<\/p>\n

That environment will be awesome. Chicago is drivable for both fan bases. Iowa State hasn\u2019t made a Final Four since 1944. Yaxel Lendeborg and Joshua Jefferson are two of the best forwards in college basketball. I think Michigan\u2019s size inside will be the difference, but the most similarly built team in the Big 12 is Arizona and I just witnessed Arizona and Iowa State play one of the games of the season.<\/p>\n

South<\/p>\n

Final Four pick: Illinois<\/p>\n

I went back and forth between Florida, Houston and Illinois. There\u2019s not a lot separating these teams. At KenPom, they\u2019re Nos. 4, 5 and 7. Florida and Houston have elite defenses. The Illini had the best offense in college basketball most of the year. To beat both Florida and Houston, you have to be able to spread them out and open up lanes to get to the basket. The Illini are among the best in the country at figuring out ways to manipulate defenses and have the shooting to spread these teams out. Also, Illinois is better than its record. The Illini lost four of their eight games in overtime, going 0-4 in extra time. Their late-game luck is due to flip. I initially had the Gators in the Final Four, but this feels like the most coin flip region, so if there\u2019s a spot not to go chalk, this is it.<\/p>\n

Most stressful decision: Illinois over Houston<\/p>\n

On paper, it looks like Houston has home-court advantage, but the Illini have a passionate fan base. I\u2019m going to bet there\u2019s just as many, if not more, Illini fans in the Toyota Center. The Coogs seemed to figure out an offense outside of their guards driving in Kansas City. Joseph Tugler was fantastic in the short roll. Kelvin Sampson is 16-5 in the last five NCAA Tournaments. It\u2019s hard to bet against him. But the Illini have a guard in Kylan Boswell who should be able to at least make things hard on Kingston Flemings. And Houston\u2019s record against top 20 KenPom teams is just 2-5.<\/p>\n

Best chance at an upset: VCU over North Carolina<\/p>\n

The Heels are missing star freshman Caleb Wilson and VCU has won 15 of its last 16 games. Lazar Djokovic is one of the best mid-major bigs in the country. His matchup with UNC\u2019s Henri Veesaar will be one to watch. One other reason to fade the Heels: Hubert Davis has only won two tourney games since the run to the 2022 title game in his first year.<\/p>\n

Matchup I hope we see: Nebraska-Florida<\/p>\n

I\u2019m supposed to be impartial, but I\u2019m pulling for the Huskers to finally win a tourney game for the first time in school history and get to the second weekend. I visited Lincoln this year and that group is one of the most mature and enjoyable teams I\u2019ve ever been around. Sam Hoiberg could be the next Robbie Hummel. But before he starts broadcasting, he has a few more guards to pester. The ability for the Huskers to get hot from 3 could give Florida issues. Florida probably has too much size inside for Nebraska, but Florida is best when it can get out in transition, and Nebraska rarely turns it over and could turn it into a half-court game. And the no-middle defense for the Huskers is also like a zone \u2014 difficult to see in March.<\/p>\n

The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.<\/p>\n

The Athletic\u00a0maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Editor\u2019s note: This article is part of the\u00a0Bracket Central\u00a0series, an inside look at the run-up to the men\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":660742,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3723],"tags":[18893,7998,1982,598,7,7150,217,6133,691,950,6721,25826,18909,15593,2811,11971,35883,7367,3755,7368,3730,20707,3075,35145,84561,1984,354,59646,14569,3491,1043,231,772,1544,8905,13492,1770,9449,68729,12513,34561,55955,6775,11668,218,9346,689,65462,1153,2398,1640,8858,4262,31481,52369,25823,20705,25678,6722,1774,3471,74846],"class_list":{"0":"post-660741","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-basketball","8":"tag-akron-zips","9":"tag-alabama-crimson-tide","10":"tag-arizona-wildcats","11":"tag-arkansas-razorbacks","12":"tag-basketball","13":"tag-clemson-tigers","14":"tag-college-basketball","15":"tag-connecticut-huskies","16":"tag-duke-blue-devils","17":"tag-florida-gators","18":"tag-georgia-bulldogs","19":"tag-hawaii-rainbow-warriors","20":"tag-high-point-panthers","21":"tag-hofstra-pride","22":"tag-houston-cougars","23":"tag-howard-bison","24":"tag-idaho-vandals","25":"tag-illinois-fighting-illini","26":"tag-iowa-hawkeyes","27":"tag-iowa-state-cyclones","28":"tag-kansas-jayhawks","29":"tag-kennesaw-state-owls","30":"tag-kentucky-wildcats","31":"tag-lehigh-mountain-hawks","32":"tag-long-island-university-sharks","33":"tag-louisville-cardinals","34":"tag-mens-college-basketball","35":"tag-miami-oh-redhawks","36":"tag-miami-hurricanes","37":"tag-michigan-state-spartans","38":"tag-michigan-wolverines","39":"tag-ncaa","40":"tag-ncaa-basketball","41":"tag-ncaab","42":"tag-nebraska-cornhuskers","43":"tag-north-carolina-state-wolfpack","44":"tag-north-carolina-tar-heels","45":"tag-ohio-state-buckeyes","46":"tag-penn-quakers","47":"tag-purdue-boilermakers","48":"tag-saint-louis-billikens","49":"tag-siena-saints","50":"tag-smu-mustangs","51":"tag-south-florida-bulls","52":"tag-st-johns-red-storm","53":"tag-tcu-horned-frogs","54":"tag-tennessee","55":"tag-tennessee-state-tigers","56":"tag-texas-am-aggies","57":"tag-texas-longhorns","58":"tag-texas-tech-red-raiders","59":"tag-ucf-knights","60":"tag-ucla-bruins","61":"tag-umbc-retrievers","62":"tag-uni-panthers","63":"tag-utah-state-aggies","64":"tag-vanderbilt-commodores","65":"tag-vcu-rams","66":"tag-villanova-wildcats","67":"tag-virginia-cavaliers","68":"tag-wisconsin-badgers","69":"tag-wright-state-raiders"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/660741","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=660741"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/660741\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/660742"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=660741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=660741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=660741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}