{"id":660993,"date":"2026-03-16T10:02:17","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T10:02:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/660993\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T10:02:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T10:02:17","slug":"march-madness-a-i-predictions-for-every-first-round-game","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/660993\/","title":{"rendered":"March Madness A.I. Predictions for Every First Round Game"},"content":{"rendered":"

Welcome to the madness. With the printable March Madness bracket<\/a> posted and Round of 64 odds<\/a> up, I have utilized our proprietary A.I. model to handicap every first-round game. <\/p>\n

Below is our A.I. model\u2019s complete ATS and O\/U pick for every First Four and Round of 64 game. (First Four games are marked with an asterisk.) Once more books have posted first-round odds, I will line shop every pick and set out the sportsbook or prediction market with the best price. <\/p>\n

March Madness A.I. Picks: First Round<\/p>\n

Looking at the board, our A.I. model is taking a contrarian approach on many of the massive spreads, siding with underdogs in 19 of 31 ATS picks. Conference tournament champions like McNeese (three-peat Southland champs), Kennesaw State, and Northern Iowa are battle-tested and playing with house money, making them dangerous to lay big numbers against. <\/p>\n

On the totals side, the model leans Under in the majority of games, reflecting the tighter defensive intensity typical of tournament play, but targets Overs in high-tempo matchups like Saint Louis vs Georgia (170), South Florida vs Louisville (165.5), and Miami (OH) vs SMU (164.5).<\/p>\n

When I asked the A.I. to further trim the picks to its five best bets, it provided the following list.<\/p>\n

A.I. Best Bets for Round of 64<\/p>\n

1. Hofstra vs Alabama<\/p>\n

The Pick: Alabama -14 (-110)<\/p>\n

A.I. Justification: \u201cOddsmakers expect plenty of scoring with a 161.5 total, but Alabama\u2019s ability to dictate the pace makes them dangerous to fade. Boasting a dominant 74.1% win rate (23-8), Alabama controls the game script beautifully. Laying 14 points is a hefty handle, but the Tide are projected to comfortably eclipse the 60% cover threshold needed in this specific high-tempo situational angle. Expect a comfortable double-digit victory in front of a hostile crowd.\u201d<\/p>\n

2. Hawai\u2019i vs Arkansas<\/p>\n

The Pick: Over 161 (-110)<\/p>\n

A.I. Justification: \u201cArkansas matches Alabama with a 74.1% win rate (23-8) and is a heavy 15-point favorite. Rather than trusting Arkansas to cover the massive spread against Hawai\u2019i, the total offers superior market value. Expect Arkansas to push the pace, dragging the opposition into a track meet that models show eclipses the projected total at a highly profitable rate.\u201d<\/p>\n

3. McNeese vs Vanderbilt<\/p>\n

The Pick: Vanderbilt -11.5 (-110)<\/p>\n

A.I. Justification: \u201cAt 24-7, Vanderbilt carries a stellar 77.4% win rate into this postseason clash. They are laying 11.5 points against McNeese with a moderate total of 150.5. When factoring in the market\u2019s moderate total, this game projects to be a slightly more controlled environment. Trust Vanderbilt to handle their business in the half-court and easily cover the spread.\u201d<\/p>\n

4. Saint Louis vs Georgia<\/p>\n

The Pick: Over 170 (-110)<\/p>\n

A.I. Justification: If you are looking for a true shootout, look no further than Athens. Both teams rank in the top 25 in all of DI in tempo and oddsmakers have hung a massive 170-point total on this matchup \u2013 the highest over\/under projection of the entire slate. Georgia is only a narrow 2.5-point home favorite, suggesting a tightly contested, back-and-forth affair. In a game script where both teams are expected to trade baskets relentlessly without playing heavily restricted defense, riding the Over is the strongest AI angle.\u201d<\/p>\n

5. Texas A&M vs Saint Mary\u2019s<\/p>\n

The Pick: Texas A&M +2.5 (-110)<\/p>\n

A.I. Justification: Texas A&M brings SEC-caliber physicality and tournament experience against a 27-4 Saint Mary\u2019s squad. The market has priced this as a nail-biter, favoring the #21 ranked Gaels by just 2.5 points with a relatively low total of 147. A lower total usually points to a grinding, possession-by-possession battle rather than a fast-paced shootout. In those gritty, half-court scenarios, the Aggies\u2019 size and defensive toughness \u2013 honed against the nation\u2019s best conference \u2013 gives them the edge to keep this within a bucket. Getting 2.5 points with a battle-tested SEC squad in a rock fight is the smartest path forward.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Welcome to the madness. With the printable March Madness bracket posted and Round of 64 odds up, I…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":660994,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3723],"tags":[7,217,231,772,1544],"class_list":["post-660993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ncaa-basketball","tag-basketball","tag-college-basketball","tag-ncaa","tag-ncaa-basketball","tag-ncaab"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116238283245542684","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/660993","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=660993"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/660993\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/660994"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=660993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=660993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=660993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}