here<\/a>.) Some of that is luck, but it\u2019s also a realization that college basketball has changed.<\/p>\nThere is a wider gap than between high-major schools \u2014 the ones from the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC and Big East \u2014 and mid-majors. That\u2019s because there has been a funnel of talent toward the top. Last year, the Final Four was chalk, with all four No. 1 seeds making it. This year, the top 10 is full of teams that are tournament staples, like the five above or Purdue and Michigan State. You can consider a non-traditional power for the Final Four, but it better be from one of the power conferences.<\/p>\n
Boring? Yes. But sometimes boring wins your bracket pool when everyone else tries to get too creative with their picks.<\/p>\n
How to identify first-round upsets<\/p>\n
The first round is the spot to take some stabs at some upsets, but be wary of taking those teams too far. In the last two years, only one mid-major has escaped the first weekend, and that was San Diego State in 2024, a No. 5 seed and a program with a long tradition of winning.<\/p>\n
When looking for underdogs to pick in the first round, consider program success. Over the last two years, the mid-majors that have advanced out of the Round of 64 are mostly teams with some history (or recent history) of success: Saint Mary\u2019s, New Mexico, Drake, Yale and Grand Canyon. All had been to the tournament very recently before the year they pulled an upset.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s also smart to study any coaching carousel lists to look for the hottest candidates. Usually, the coaches getting attention for bigger jobs have built better-than-average teams.<\/p>\n
Be careful to wipe out a team that you think is really strong, but the spots to look for upsets are on the 12-5 and 11-6 lines. For the No. 11 seeds, two of those teams will have played their way into the bracket in the play-in round, the First Four. Since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011, at least one play-in No. 11 seed has advanced to the round of 32 in every tourney except for 2019 and 2025, so picking one of the First Four teams is not a bad idea.<\/p>\n
Also worth noting, only two double-digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 in the last two years, and both were high-major teams \u2014 No. 11 NC State in 2024 and No. 10 Arkansas in 2025. It\u2019s never been more difficult for the traditional Cinderella to break through, but a power-conference team with a double-digit seed might have the talent to surprise.<\/p>\n
The stats that matter most<\/p>\n
When looking for upsets, you can look for trends. For example, the three worst teams Kansas has lost to this season have all started a 7-footer. Kansas is undefeated when limiting its opponent to an offensive rebounding rate of 30 percent or less, but just 8-9 when its opponent tops that mark. So if you\u2019re looking for a team to upset KU? Big and strong on the offensive glass would be a good recipe.<\/p>\n
But in terms of picking teams to go far, stick to studying those adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. Efficiency and talent win in March and April.<\/p>\n
\tFavorites to win the men\u2019s tournament Updated March 15, 2026 at 10:21 PM <\/p>\n
One more tip: Study an NBA mock draft ahead of picking your bracket. Your national champ should have at least one, and preferably a couple of players, listed as potential draft picks.<\/p>\n
Stylistically, there\u2019s not one way to play that\u2019s better than another. Be careful overthinking it. Just remember to start at the end. Most brackets are not won in the first weekend; they\u2019re won in the last.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Start at the end, work backward and get familiar with KenPom. That\u2019s my best advice for filling out…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":660996,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3723],"tags":[7,217,354,231,772,1544],"class_list":{"0":"post-660995","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-basketball","8":"tag-basketball","9":"tag-college-basketball","10":"tag-mens-college-basketball","11":"tag-ncaa","12":"tag-ncaa-basketball","13":"tag-ncaab"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116238287296224871","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/660995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=660995"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/660995\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/660996"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=660995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=660995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=660995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}