{"id":672894,"date":"2026-03-22T16:37:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-22T16:37:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/672894\/"},"modified":"2026-03-22T16:37:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T16:37:23","slug":"2026-march-madness-picks-predictions-against-the-spread-odds-for-second-round-games-sunday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/672894\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 March Madness picks: Predictions against the spread, odds for second-round games Sunday"},"content":{"rendered":"

We have reached one of the most important moments in this year’s\u00a0NCAA Tournament<\/a>, with Sunday’s eight second round<\/a> games presenting the last chance for teams to punch tickets to the Sweet 16. These eight winners, from four sites across all four regions of the bracket<\/a>, will extend their season into late next week. That opportunity hangs in the balance for these second-round matchups, and the stage routinely produces some of the best drama of the tournament. \u00a0 <\/p>\n

Sunday’s schedule is loaded with high-level matchups, featuring Hall of Fame coaches and rising stars across the sport. Bill Self vs. Rick Pitino in the East Region in San Diego will draw plenty of attention, but the slate also includes Dan Hurley vs. Mick Cronin, Nate Oats vs. Grant McCasland and several other compelling coaching showdowns. <\/p>\n

The lack of upsets on Friday has set the stage for marquee matchups. While some of the Cinderella drama has faded, the result is a slate filled with teams that have performed like top-30 or top-40 programs this season. For many, a Sweet 16 appearance is an expectation — but only half will get there. <\/p>\n

We’ve broken down the eight-game slate and identified some of our favorite plays. For more traditional against-the-spread picks and straight-up winners, those are included as well via the CBS Sports Expert Picks panel. <\/p>\n

(2) Purdue vs. (7) Miami\u00a0 <\/p>\n

12:10 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live\u00a0<\/a> <\/p>\n

This is a tough turnaround for the Hurricanes after playing in the last game of the day in St. Louis and wrapping up their opening round win against Missouri<\/a> shortly after midnight on the East Coast. Meanwhile, Purdue<\/a> cruised in its opening round win against Queens<\/a> and didn’t have to ask too much from its starters, with only record-breaking guard Braden Smith<\/a> playing more than 30 minutes. Still, there’s a style mismatch here that has me ready to overlook the slight rest advantage for the Boilermakers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Miami<\/a> is a physical, downhill team that rebounds at a high level. Hurricanes floor general Tre Donaldson<\/a> is coming off a stellar game (17 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals) in the opening round. Purdue has size and great shooting, but I’m not sure Miami will allow the kind of offensive rebounding that has bolstered their ultra-efficient offense over the last three weeks. Pick: Miami +7.5\u00a0 <\/p>\n

(5) St. John’s vs. (4) Kansas\u00a0 <\/p>\n

5:15 p.m. on CBS |\u00a0March Madness Live\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

Kansas<\/a> built a 26-point lead against Cal Baptist<\/a> in the second half before allowing an 18-2 run over the final 10 minutes, ultimately settling for an eight-point win to advance. While there is credit for building that cushion behind a strong performance from Darryn Peterson<\/a>, there are valid concerns about consistency as the level of competition rises.<\/p>\n

St. John’s<\/a> enters in far better form, winners of 20 of its last 21 games, including a 26-point rout of Northern Iowa<\/a>. That gives Rick Pitino’s group an edge in confidence heading into this matchup between Hall of Fame coaches.<\/p>\n

The schematic question centers on Kansas’ interior defense, which could force St. John’s into more perimeter shooting \u2014 not its greatest strength. While St. John’s is the lean to win, the best angle may be a slower offensive start, with the physicality and tactical battle pointing toward a lower-scoring game early.Pick: 1H Under 67.5\u00a0<\/p>\n

(1) Florida vs. (9) Iowa\u00a0 <\/p>\n

7:10 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live\u00a0<\/a> <\/p>\n

Though still early in his tenure, Todd Golden’s NCAA Tournament experience continues to grow with each round. Credit Florida<\/a> for handling business in the first round against Prairie View<\/a>, showing up in Tampa as a heavy home favorite and delivering as expected.<\/p>\n

The Gators could be in line for another double-digit win against an Iowa<\/a> team that was just 4-9 against Quad 1 opponents entering Selection Sunday. The Ben McCollum\u2013Bennett Stirtz<\/a> combination has been excellent, but it faces a much tougher test against Florida’s size and athleticism.<\/p>\n

While Florida is not an elite shooting team, its versatile frontcourt can disrupt passing lanes and limit Stirtz’s impact. The Gators may not have looked their best in the SEC Tournament, but their focus appears to have sharpened with the start of the NCAA Tournament.\u00a0Pick: Florida -11.5\u00a0 <\/p>\n

(1) Arizona vs. (9) Utah State\u00a0 <\/p>\n

7:50 p.m. on truTV | March Madness Live\u00a0<\/a> <\/p>\n

There is a chance Jerrod Calhoun’s unique defensive scheme creates issues for Arizona<\/a>, though Jayden Bradley<\/a> and the rest of the Wildcats’ backcourt should be steady enough to limit easy turnover opportunities for Utah State<\/a>. Still, that disruption could push the Wildcats into some out-of-rhythm possessions, especially if Tommy Lloyd opts against turning the game into the track meet the total might suggest.<\/p>\n

One of Arizona’s strengths this season is its ability to win in multiple styles — both high-scoring shootouts and low-scoring grinders. Forcing Utah State into a half-court game against Arizona’s elite defense could neutralize much of the upset potential. That approach would likely lead to fewer possessions and a lower-scoring outcome, even with two capable offenses.\u00a0Pick: Under 155.5\u00a0 <\/p>\n

(2) UConn vs. (7) UCLA\u00a0 <\/p>\n

8:45 p.m. on TNT | March Madness Live\u00a0<\/a> <\/p>\n

There has been a sense all season that UConn<\/a> needs an extra edge to fully engage. The Huskies were just 12-22 against the spread in the regular season, often failing to cover larger numbers against weaker Big East opponents. Even in wins, those performances hurt their predictive metrics and power ratings.<\/p>\n

Still, UConn showed its ceiling with wins — and covers — against Illinois<\/a> and Kansas, along with a four-point victory over Florida as a 4.5-point favorite. Dan Hurley’s 2023 title team famously went 31-0 against non-Big East opponents while posting a 14-8 mark in conference play, and while the first-round game against Furman<\/a> was tighter than expected, this matchup with Mick Cronin and UCLA<\/a> could bring out a similar high-level, nonconference-style performance.\u00a0Pick: UConn -4.5\u00a0 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"We have reached one of the most important moments in this year’s\u00a0NCAA Tournament, with Sunday’s eight second round…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":672895,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3723],"tags":[382,1982,7,2466,2456,217,6133,17641,420,950,3755,3730,7456,18379,231,772,1400,1544,1319,3280,3281,2467,12513,1138,51690,218,25637,19757,4262,922,25823],"class_list":["post-672894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ncaa-basketball","tag-arizona","tag-arizona-wildcats","tag-basketball","tag-bennett-stirtz","tag-braden-smith","tag-college-basketball","tag-connecticut-huskies","tag-darryn-peterson","tag-florida","tag-florida-gators","tag-iowa-hawkeyes","tag-kansas-jayhawks","tag-march-madness","tag-miami-fla-hurricanes","tag-ncaa","tag-ncaa-basketball","tag-ncaa-tournament","tag-ncaab","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-predictions","tag-purdue","tag-purdue-boilermakers","tag-second-round","tag-spread","tag-st-johns-red-storm","tag-sweet-16","tag-tre-donaldson","tag-ucla-bruins","tag-uconn","tag-utah-state-aggies"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/672894","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=672894"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/672894\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/672895"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=672894"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=672894"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=672894"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}