\n
![\"Profile](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/IMG_Jackson_Barry_mug.jp_2_1_GDETHNSG_L434902367.JPG\")
\n <\/a><\/p>\n
When two of the NBA\u2019s most successful franchises meet on Monday in Miami, the contrast in organizational approach couldn\u2019t be starker:<\/p>\n
The Spurs were thoroughly willing to endure years of misery (six seasons in a row of 32, 33, 34, 22, 22 and 34 wins) in order to build back a championship contender, yet still needed extraordinary lottery luck (2023 No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama) to reclaim their spot in the NBA\u2019s upper class.<\/p>\n
The Heat, unwilling to intentionally sacrifice a single season (let alone six), hopes a transformational star can be acquired any way other than tanking.<\/p>\n
On Saturday, the Heat\u2019s chances of a fourth consecutive play-in appearance grew more likely when Amen Thompson tipped in a Kevin Durant miss just before the final buzzer, lifting the Rockets to a 123-122 win, ruining Bam Adebayo\u2019s first career 20\/20 games (32 points, 21 rebounds), extending the Heat\u2019s losing streak to four and dropping Miami to ninth in the East heading into three difficult games on Monday against the visiting Spurs (7 p.m., Peacock only) and Wednesday and Friday at Cleveland.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s the broader question: Is it even in the Heat\u2019s best interests to make the playoffs? It was as an eighth seed in 2023, when Jimmy Butler led Miami on a magical run to the Finals.<\/p>\n
It wasn\u2019t last April, when Miami qualified for the play-in from the 10th spot in the East and was quickly swept out of the postseason as an eighth seed, in embarrassing fashion, by Cleveland, with Dallas moving from what could have been the Heat\u2019s No. 10 draft slot to land No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s start with the obvious: Historically, the odds of landing an All NBA caliber player are higher if you barely miss the playoffs than if you make the playoffs as a seventh or eighth seed.<\/p>\n
But a Miami Herald study of NBA drafts over the entire century offer some context for Heat fans who are conflicted about whether to root for Miami to make the playoffs or miss the playoffs before what\u2019s considered a great draft.<\/p>\n
Answering some questions on the matter:<\/p>\n
\u25aa If the Heat misses the playoffs, what are the odds, historically, of Miami jumping into the top four of what\u2019s considered one of the best and deepest drafts in many years?<\/p>\n
Even though Dallas sprung from 10th to first in last May\u2019s lottery, such a jump is rare.<\/p>\n
Since the NBA flattened odds for the lottery teams in 2019, 35 teams have been slotted 10th through 14th heading into the lottery. (The Heat very likely be slotted 11th, 12th, 13th or 14th if it misses the playoffs.)<\/p>\n
Of those 35 teams, only three have jumped into the top four:<\/p>\n
1). The 2019 Lakers, who rose from 11th to 4th, with that pick (DeAndre Hunter) used in a package to acquire Anthony Davis from New Orleans, which traded Hunter to the Hawks.<\/p>\n
2). The 2024 Hawks, who jumped from 10th to first \u2013 despite only having a three percent chance to do so – and used that pick on Zaccharie Risacher, who has been a mild disappointment.<\/p>\n
3) The 2025 Mavericks skyrocketed from 10th to 1st – despite having only a 1.8 percent chance – to snag the top pick, allowing them to draft Flagg.<\/p>\n
Even before the lottery was tweaked in 2019, jumps into the top three of the lottery, among teams with the best records of non-playoff teams, were highly unusual. The most notable of those jumps resulted in Seattle snagging Gary Payton (1990), Orlando landing Chris Webber (1993) and Charlotte landing Baron Davis (1997).<\/p>\n
\u25aa So let\u2019s say the Heat misses the playoffs but doesn\u2019t get lucky like Dallas did last year. Historically, are their chances of getting a better player much better with pick 10 to 14 than picks 15 to 19?<\/p>\n
Yes, but with one caveat: The 15th pick (which goes to the playoff team with the worst record) oddly has yielded better players than the 14th, the last pick in the lottery.<\/p>\n
Generally, though you\u2019re more likely to find better players late in the lottery than the mid to late teens.<\/p>\n
During the 21st century, nine players who were selected with the 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th or 14th picks were eventually named All NBA players (first, second or third team).<\/p>\n
That includes 10th picks Paul George (six times), Joe Johnson (once), Andrew Bynum (once); 11th picks Shae Gilgeous-Alexander (three times with more on the way), Klay Thompson (twice) and Domantas Sabonis (once); 12th pick Tyrese Haliburton (twice) and 13th picks Donovan Mitchell (twice) and Devin Booker (twice).<\/p>\n
No 14th overall pick has been named All NBA; Adebayo and Michael Porter Jr. have been the best of 26 players selected 14th overall this century.<\/p>\n
If the Heat misses the playoffs, it\u2019s likely to pick 12th to 14th, with 11th realistically the highest Miami can go unless it defies odds and moves into the top four of the draft.<\/p>\n
Conversely, only four players drafted between picks 15 to 19 (the picks for the worst of the playoff teams) became All NBA players this century: Kawhi Leonard (the 15th pick in 2011), Giannis Antetokounmpo (the 15th pick in 2013), Al Jefferson (the 15th pick in 2004) and Zach Randolph (the 19th pick in 2011).<\/p>\n
So the odds of landing an All-NBA player this century have been more than twice as high if your team is one of the five best non-playoff teams compared with one of the five worst playoff qualifiers.<\/p>\n
And All Stars have been found with picks 20th (Atlanta\u2019s Jalen Johnson in 2021) and 21 (Philadelphia\u2019s Tyrese Maxey in 2020), among others.<\/p>\n
\u25aa Beyond the Heat\u2019s miraculous Finals run as an eighth seed, do low seeds often do that well? In other words, is making the playoffs as a flawed low seed even worth the lower pick?<\/p>\n
The Heat will forever say yes because of the 2023 run. But no fifth, seventh or eighth seed has ever won an NBA title. Only one sixth seed has won a title (the 1994-95 Rockets). The 1999 Knicks made the Finals (and lost) as an eighth seed. But if the goal is to make the playoffs as a play-in seed to win a title, that has never happened.<\/p>\n
Two other \u201cpros\u201d to the Heat making the playoffs: 1). It might help Miami\u2019s chances of a disgruntled star player (Antetokounmpo?) asking to be traded to the Heat. 2). If one of the top four seeds has a major injury, a first-round Heat upset becomes a greater possibility.<\/p>\n
With regard to the draft, keep in mind that only the first four picks are decided by the lottery. After these four are drawn, picks 5 through 14 are assigned to the remaining teams in inverse order of their regular-season records.<\/p>\n
A team can only move up if it lands in the top four. If a 14th-seeded team is not drawn for one of the first four picks, they will typically remain at or near the 14th pick, depending on how many teams behind them (if any) jumped into the top four.<\/p>\n
This story was originally published March 22, 2026 at 9:42 AM.<\/p>\n