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<\/p>\nBy the end of Volume 8, the Bucks got lower than Lil\u2019 John & the Eastside Boyz in 2002. As you can imagine, Volume 9 has more of the same. But there are moments\u2014glinting in the dark\u2014that suggest 2025-26 is a passing cloud rather than a never-ending well. Let\u2019s recap.<\/p>\n
vs. Suns<\/p>\n
Suns vs. Bucks. Giannis vs. Booker. Bango vs. Go. But the real story is Kyle Kuzma vs. Royce O\u2019Neale.<\/p>\n
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It\u2019s the waning moments of the third quarter and O\u2019Neale has a cool 15 points, five more than his season average. On the pine, getting some much needed rest, Kuzma checks the stat sheet. He finds his line, takes his time. Breathes in the ink: 31 points. \u201cI am hot!\u201d he screams, grinning. The scoreboard is smiling too\u2014an Ousmane Dieng put-back levelling the scores at 97 with just two seconds left in the frame. Then, as casually as you throw a ball of paper in the trash, O\u2019Neale goes solar, releasing a runner from beyond half court\u201449 feet to be exact\u2014to beat the buzzer. It splashes through the net, giving Phoenix all the vibes heading into the fourth, propelling them to a 16-4 run that\u2019s just too bright, too blistering. The Bucks are scorched\u2014and there\u2019s not enough aloe vera on the entire planet for them to recover.<\/p>\n
Win probability after Dieng\u2019s put-back: 45.7%<\/p>\n
Win probability after O\u2019Neale\u2019s buzzer-beater: 34.3%<\/p>\n
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vs. Heat<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a one-possession game, 58.5 ticks left, and Bobby Portis has just collected the defensive rebound to give the Bucks a chance at tying things up. He finds Rollins who cedes control to Giannis. And here, the game after Bam Adebayo dropped 83, you just know Giannis wants to make a statement. Deep down, you know what\u2019s going to happen too. But it still cuts. Still burns. Still lingers in your mind long after you\u2019ve turned off the TV: A walk up three with no passes past half court and 17 on the shot clock. Really?<\/p>\n
\u201cI always shoot with confidence, but I wish I\u2019d shot a few more threes earlier in the game so I had a better feel of it on that last shot,\u201d Giannis says after the game. \u201cI never regret being aggressive.\u201d But there\u2019s a difference between playing with aggression and playing with ego. And neither concerns itself with smarts. With winning plays.<\/p>\n
Pathos yields to logos most times, but I guess we\u2019re still learning that lesson.<\/p>\n
Win probability after Portis\u2019 rebound: 24.3%<\/p>\n
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Win probability after Giannis\u2019 miss: 17.0%<\/p>\n
@ Hawks<\/p>\n
Atlanta, Georgia. The Peach State.<\/p>\n
Pregame, Kyle Kuzma and Jericho Sims walk into a bakery. They cast their eyes past the savoury section, straight to the sweets. A server, 50 or 60, shuffles across. \u201cCan I interest you in a donut?\u201d she asks. \u201cDanish? Or how about some good old-fashioned cherry pie?\u201d<\/p>\n
Kuz and Sims look at each other, tempted. But no. Their gaze drifts deeper.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ll have some of those,\u201d Kuz says, jutting his head up. \u201cIn the back.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cMe too,\u201d Sims chimes in.<\/p>\n
A smile spreads across the server\u2019s face. Her eyes twinkle.<\/p>\n
\u201cExcellent choice,\u201d she says. \u201cJust out of the oven. How many are you after?\u201d<\/p>\n
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Eager, Sims jumps in first. \u201cI\u2019ll take four.\u201d<\/p>\n
Surprised, Kuz hesitates. Then grins. \u201cBetter make it five for me then!\u201d<\/p>\n
And later that afternoon, inside State Farm Arena, you best believe Kuz and Sims hand out every single one of those juicy peach turnovers. The Bucks never had a shot.<\/p>\n
Win probability prior to the game: 24.5%<\/p>\n
Win probability after Kuzma and Sims\u2019 ninth combined turnover: 4.1%<\/p>\n
vs. Pacers<\/p>\n
The tanking Indiana Pacers are up at quarter time. The score is 34-26. And, frankly, for these Pacers, that\u2019s not good enough. Rick Carlisle might not have said it, but someone sure as hell did. Because from this point on the Pacers remember who they are\u2014who they\u2019re without\u2014and what their plan is.<\/p>\n
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Their execution is subtle. Brilliant, even\u2014Aaron Nesmith actually extends the lead to open the second. But then it starts. A missed shot here and there. A rebound that slips off fingertips. An ill (or perfectly) timed turnover. By the half, their lead is down to three. By the end of the third, the Pacers are down by six. And, by the end of the game, they\u2019ve lost by 11. Just the way they wanted to.<\/p>\n
Win probability at the end of the first quarter: 36.6%<\/p>\n
Win probability after Giannis gives the Bucks the lead: 59.5%<\/p>\n
vs. Cavs<\/p>\n
The Bucks are gallant, holding the fort against the Eastern Conference powerhouse Cleveland Cavaliers through three quarters. The fourth is no exception, the sides trading swings of their swords. But the Bucks\u2019 armour is cracking and James Harden is good at finding the weak points. A one-possession game for most of the quarter, Harden gets to the line for two free throws that extend the lead to five. Then Keon Ellis draws his string and arrows one from deep, making it an eight-point game. Pete Nance gets it right back from the turret, and after another Harden two and Ousmane Dieng three, the Bucks are still in it, the lead just four. But the Cavs\u2019 weaponry is too deep, their army too strong, and when Max Strus launches one from deep that sails in the air, through the net, and right between the Bucks\u2019 eyes, Milwaukee can no longer protect the castle. The curtain walls have collapsed.<\/p>\n
Win probability after Dieng cuts it to four: 14.1%<\/p>\n
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Win probability after Strus\u2019 three: 7.0%<\/p>\n
@ Jazz<\/p>\n
With 3:15 to go in the first quarter Oscar Tshiebwe gets an offensive rebound and, four seconds later, gets it right back for a dunk. It\u2019s one of several plays that could\u2019ve been chosen for tonight\u2019s game. Forget them all.<\/p>\n
The Bucks lost by 32 points. To the Utah Jazz. The 20-49 Utah Jazz. The tanking-so-bad-they-got-fined-by-the-league Utah Jazz. Forget momentum. Forget the whole damn game. Embrace amnesia. Unless you played or coached in it. Then let it sink in; slink beneath your skin. Let it crawl. Fester. Rage. Until you never put on a display like that. Ever. Again.<\/p>\n
Win probability at the start of the game: 67.7%<\/p>\n
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Win probability after Oscar Tshiebwe\u2019s dunk: 35.2%<\/p>\n
@ Suns<\/p>\n
INT. MORTGAGE MATCHUP CENTER \u2014 COURT<\/p>\n
It\u2019s deep in the fourth, game 70 of a long season, and the Milwaukee Bucks are in the desert taking on the 7th-seed Phoenix Suns. For the Bucks, there\u2019s little to play for besides pride, but that doesn\u2019t deter RYAN ROLLINS (23, arrived) and OUSMANE DIENG (22, arriving), who aren\u2019t going down without a fight.<\/p>\n
BEGIN MONTAGE:<\/p>\n
2:51 on the clock, Ousmane picks off a loose Jalen Green handle and pushes it for a layup on the other end. 100-97, Bucks.<\/p>\n
2:21 to go, Ousmane converts a tough, hanging, 12-foot pull-up off a feed from Ryan. 102-97.<\/p>\n
37.7 left. Ousmane plays lockdown defense on All-World guard Devin Booker. Denies penetration, gets over a screen, turns a would-be jumper into a pass, forces him off the three-point line, recovers on the drive, and pressures the pass, leading to a turnover. 105-104.<\/p>\n
23.8. Ryan has the back-breaker\u2014a highlight-worthy floater plus the harm. 107-104.<\/p>\n
9.7. Ryan makes it all but official with a free throw. 108-104. The rest is academic.<\/p>\n
END MONTAGE.<\/p>\n
When the final siren blows, the scoreboard reads 108-105, and the Bucks have won for just the third time in 10 games. As Ryan and Ousmane walk down the tunnel, #13 and #21 side by side, a FAN (pre-teens) hangs over the railing, looking on in awe.<\/p>\n
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FAN:<\/p>\n
(excited)<\/p>\n
Dad. Dad. Dad! It just hit me. Rylo and Ous, 13 and 21\u2026<\/p>\n
A beat.<\/p>\n
FAN:<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t you see? That\u2019s 34!<\/p>\n
Another beat.<\/p>\n
FAN:<\/p>\n
Next year, the future, it\u2019s all gonna be alright.<\/p>\n
Win probability prior to Dieng\u2019s steal: 49.5%<\/p>\n
Win probability after Rollins\u2019 floater: 77.6%<\/p>\n
@ Clippers<\/p>\n
Between the 10:15 and 8:32 marks of the second quarter, the Bucks go scoreless. Between the 5:21 and 2:51 marks of the second quarter, the Bucks go scoreless. Between the 11:20 and 6:19 marks of the third quarter, the Bucks go scoreless. And between the 6:19 and 3:59 marks of the third quarter, the Bucks go scoreless. The deficit is 44 points.<\/p>\n
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Two hours prior to the game, at 7:44 PM, the Bucks release a statement: Cam \u201cI\u2019m a bucket\u201d Thomas has been waived.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Win probability prior to waiving Thomas: low (but possible)<\/p>\n
Win probability at the 3:59 mark of the third: literally 0.1%<\/p>\n
@ Blazers<\/p>\n
One game after former Buck Brook Lopez torched Milwaukee\u2014going for 19 points (on 7\/9 shooting, 5\/6 3PT) to go along with three boards, three assists, and three blocks on his way to finishing +28\u2014another ex-Buck would do the same.<\/p>\n
On the opening possession of the night, Jrue Holiday hands it off to Deni Avdija and cuts to the right dunker\u2019s spot. He lingers, biding his time, reading the play. Vet savvy and all that. Then, as the shot clock dwindles down, he relocates to the left corner to clear the area. The move is selfless, as is often the case with Jrue. And, as is often the case in life, good begets good\u2014Jrue gets it back. He checks the shot clock, sees there\u2019s just 3.8 seconds left, and rises up. Bottoms.<\/p>\n
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As he runs back on D, Jrue can\u2019t contain his smile, his bright-whites glowing throughout Moda Center. It\u2019s fitting\u2014the Bucks can\u2019t contain the Blazers, either, the team in white going on for 42 first quarter points. And, as if scripted, Jrue finishes with a team-high +28\u2014the same as his old running mate just two days prior.<\/p>\n
How lucky we once were.<\/p>\n
Win probability prior to tip-off: 74.9%<\/p>\n
Win probability after Jrue\u2019s three: 78.6%<\/p>\n
Which moment hit hardest? Cast your vote below and, as always, add your thoughts in the comments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By the end of Volume 8, the Bucks got lower than Lil\u2019 John & the Eastside Boyz in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":682331,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3791],"tags":[280,1179,7,507,369,136,559,980,2292,107,677,861,560,423,2762,2038,3211,124,872,121,6,2460,6609,114,21490,2065,472,4045,2763,604,361,427,2956],"class_list":["post-682330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-phoenix-suns","tag-aaron-nesmith","tag-bam-adebayo","tag-basketball","tag-bobby-portis","tag-brook-lopez","tag-cavs","tag-clippers","tag-deni-avdija","tag-devin-booker","tag-giannis","tag-hawks","tag-jalen-green","tag-james-harden","tag-jazz","tag-jericho-sims","tag-jrue-holiday","tag-keon-ellis","tag-kyle-kuzma","tag-max-strus","tag-milwaukee-bucks","tag-nba","tag-oscar-tshiebwe","tag-ousmane-dieng","tag-pacers","tag-pete-nance","tag-phoenix","tag-phoenix-suns","tag-phoenixsuns","tag-ryan-rollins","tag-suns","tag-the-bucks","tag-utah-jazz","tag-win-probability"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116301907622941971","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/682330","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=682330"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/682330\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/682331"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=682330"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=682330"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=682330"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}