Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Hawks at Magic on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
Though the 20 teams who will participate in the postseason have been determined, the remainder of the regular season is far from meaningless. In the Eastern Conference, six teams are still in a fight for two places above the Play-In Tournament, as they\u2019re separated by just three games with either six or seven games remaining in the regular season. <\/p>\n
Two of those teams will face off today, when the Orlando Magic host the Atlanta Hawks at 7:10 p.m. ET. The 43-33 Hawks currently hold the fifth seed in the conference, but the Magic (40-35) are just two and a half games behind, so Atlanta\u2019s position is far from secure.<\/p>\n
The Hawks should be mostly healthy, as their only rotation player with an injury designation is Jock Landale (illness), who\u2019s questionable. Meanwhile, Orlando will continue to be without Jonathan Isaac (knee) and Anthony Black (abdomen), who have been out for several weeks, but Franz Wagner (injury management) is questionable after missing most of the last four months with an ankle injury.<\/p>\n
Atlanta is a 3.5-point favorite<\/a> at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a> (-180 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 232.5. The Magic are +150. Below, I\u2019ll break down this critical seeding battle and offer a prediction.<\/p>\n Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic preview, prediction<\/p>\n The Hawks have been one of the hottest teams in basketball since inserting CJ McCollum into the starting lineup on February 22, going 16-2 across that span. It hasn\u2019t been a direct result of his play; 18.5 points per game on 45-31-78 shooting splits is superior to what Zaccharie Risacher was posting in the same role, but isn\u2019t in itself superstar production. The rest of Atlanta\u2019s rotation has been clicking as well, as Jalen Johnson has nearly averaged a triple-double in March and Nickeil Alexander-Walker has posted 22.7 points per game on 53-47-94 shooting splits. Jonathan Kuminga has provided flashes of two-way upside.<\/p>\n On the other hand, Orlando has been cold as of late. The Magic had won 10 of their first 13 games after the All-Star break, but they\u2019ve since dropped seven of their last nine, only beating the woeful Sacramento Kings and slumping Phoenix Suns by four points each. To be fair, they\u2019ve gotten some improved play out of 2022 first overall pick Paolo Banchero, who\u2019s averaged 25.0 points per game since the All-Star break, but without Wagner and Black, they have struggled for depth and high-level secondary creation. Wagner\u2019s possible return could help, but it\u2019s likely that he\u2019ll be on a heavy minutes restriction if he does play.<\/p>\n Hawks at Magic pick, best bet<\/p>\n The Hawks\u2019 numbers are pretty overwhelming over the last 18 games; in that span, they rank fourth in offensive rating, third in defensive rating, third in net rating, and second in winning percentage. To be fair, Atlanta hasn\u2019t had the most difficult schedule, playing just four teams in the top six in either conference and going 2-2, and in those games, the Detroit Pistons were without Cade Cunningham and the Boston Celtics played one game without each of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Still, the Hawks beat Orlando and have been at least four points per 100 possessions better than the Magic on both sides of the ball across that span. Orlando\u2019s defensive struggles have continued; it ranks just 15th on that side of the ball this season despite finishing second in defensive rating in 2024-25. Even if Wagner does play, he likely won\u2019t make that much of an impact; the team has posted similar marks on both ends of the floor with and without him.<\/p>\n The surest way to post an elite defense is to take away the easiest shots in the game, but despite Atlanta\u2019s recent defensive rating, it hasn\u2019t been flawless in that regard. The Hawks\u2019 opponents have converted at the seventh-lowest rate within five feet, but they\u2019ve attempted the eighth-most shots. Meanwhile, the Magic have had the opposite problem; although they\u2019ve allowed the fifth-fewest attempts at the rim, opponents have converted at the second-highest rate. Offensively, both teams have gotten downhill with nearly identical frequencies, but Atlanta has finished slightly more accurately. <\/p>\n Both teams have been pretty strong on the boards as of late. Since elevating McCollum, the Hawks have posted the league\u2019s sixth-best rebounding percentage, and Orlando, too, ranks in the top 10. Atlanta should have a massive edge in transition play, as it has loads of deflections behind its oversized guard duo of Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels and the Magic lost some of their athletic juice without Black. Orlando fouls much more and draws many more fouls, so it should have the slight advantage as long as Banchero stays aggressive.<\/p>\n Over the course of their hot streak, the Hawks have done an excellent job closing out on opposing shooters, as they\u2019ve allowed the second-fewest wide-open threes per game across that span. That should allow them to make life difficult for the Magic, who rank fourth-to-last in wide-open three-point percentage this season and have two qualified shooters (Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr.) who rank in the league\u2019s bottom 50 in three-point percentage over expectation. Wagner is a decent shooter, but he could be rusty after playing just four games since December 7. Meanwhile, Atlanta has done an excellent job generating easy triples as of late, and McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Landale, and Okongwu are all above-average shooters. <\/p>\n Home court advantage is a swing of roughly five points per 100 possessions in Orlando\u2019s favor relative to a game played at State Farm Arena, but given that the Hawks won by 12 points there, it seems reasonable to expect that they\u2019ll cover the spread tonight. Their high shot quality and low opponent shot quality over their hot streak suggests that their record mostly isn\u2019t a product of luck. In the long run, the Magic\u2019s ceiling is probably higher with Wagner healthy, but he probably won\u2019t play enough minutes to swing the game enough tonight.<\/p>\n