{"id":692954,"date":"2026-04-02T00:53:29","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T00:53:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/692954\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T00:53:29","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T00:53:29","slug":"who-is-minnesotas-preferred-playoff-opponent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/692954\/","title":{"rendered":"Who is Minnesota’s preferred playoff opponent?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Minnesota\u2019s magic number to secure a top six seed in the Western Conference playoffs and, thus, dodge the play-in tournament is down to just three with a week and a half to play following Phoenix\u2019s loss to Orlando on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

The Timberwolves will reach the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. Now it\u2019s all about positioning. Seeds No. 3-6 are technically all still in play for Minnesota, though the Los Angeles Lakers would have to collapse at this point for the Wolves to nab the third seed.<\/p>\n

\"LukaLuka Doncic #77 of the Los Angeles Lakers drives to the basket past Nickeil Alexander-Walker #9 and Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves during a 111-102 Lakers win at Crypto.com Arena on Feb. 27, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How\/Getty Images) NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n

So Minnesota will, in all likelihood, be No. 4, No. 5 or No. 6 when the playoffs open in two and a half weeks. But perhaps more important than the seed is the opponent. The Timberwolves\u2019 list of potential first-round opponents is effectively down to three possibilities: Denver, Houston or the Lakers.<\/p>\n

Which is preferred? Let\u2019s dive into the options, starting with the best possible outcome for the Wolves.<\/p>\n

Rockets<\/p>\n

Statistically, much lines up between Minnesota and Houston, which have split a pair of regular season matchups \u2014 neither of which included Anthony Edwards. The stats say they\u2019re two solid offensive teams that lean on defense, and that\u2019s probably the best version of each club.<\/p>\n

The Rockets have Keivn Durant, a scary proposition for any opposing defense, though Minnesota limited his impact in a playoff series against Phoenix just two seasons ago.<\/p>\n

With Durant and Alperen Sengun serving as the team\u2019s top offensive weapons, Houston doesn\u2019t have anyone capable of breaking down a defense off the bounce. The Rockets\u2019 offense tends to devolve into isolation for large chunks of the game, particularly in clutch time.<\/p>\n

That plays directly into the hands of Minnesota, whose strength is its ability to guard in isolation situations.<\/p>\n

The Rockets haven\u2019t been whole all season, playing without starting guard Fred VanVleet all season and without center Steven Adams since mid-January.<\/p>\n

Houston consistently plays with physicality and wouldn\u2019t be an easy opponent for any team, but the Rockets\u2019 roster in its current form lacks anything scary for which to gameplan.<\/p>\n

The Wolves would have a clear talent edge here.<\/p>\n

Lakers<\/p>\n

Minnesota\u2019s five-game ousting of the Lakers in last year\u2019s first round likely remains fresh in the minds of all. But this looks like a better version of Los Angeles in terms of construction and form.<\/p>\n

In the playoffs last spring, the Lakers were still just two months removed from the major shakeup of acquiring Luka Doncic from Dallas in a league-altering transaction.<\/p>\n

Doncic has since settled in nicely alongside Austin Reaves as the team\u2019s top creators, with LeBron James thriving in a complementary role.<\/p>\n

DeAndre Ayton certainly has warts, but he still has given the Lakers necessary size along with Jaxson Hayes at the center spot. Luke Kennard has improved the team\u2019s offensive spacing, and Marcus Smart has added toughness and perimeter defense.<\/p>\n

But the biggest difference is Doncic. He came into this season with a leaner build and simply looks like a healthier version of himself.\u00a0In March, the Slovenian superstar averaged 37.5 points, eight rebounds, 7.4 assists and 2.3 steals while leading the Lakers to a 14-2 mark.<\/p>\n

With all that being said, Minnesota could still win the series via the same size, speed and strength advantages that proved so pivotal in last year\u2019s matchup. But Doncic is capable of picking the Wolves\u2019 defense apart, as demonstrated in a pair of Lakers blowout wins in Los Angeles this season.<\/p>\n

\"DenverDenver Nuggets center Nikola Joki\u0107, left, drives to the rim as Memphis Grizzlies forward Kyle Anderson defends in the second half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo\/David Zalubowski)
\nNuggets<\/p>\n

It\u2019s tough to trust the Nuggets as true threats to win the West this season, even with an ever-dominant Nikola Jokic. Because Denver has struggled with health issues all season, and the team\u2019s lynchpin, Aaron Gordon, doesn\u2019t seem like a good bet to physically withstand two months of high-intensity playoff action.<\/p>\n

But whoever faces Denver in Round 1 is likely getting the Nuggets\u2019 best punch, a blow that delivers about as much force as anything the league\u2019s elite can produce.<\/p>\n

Defensively, Minnesota has never produced any real answers for Jokic \u2014 who has? But Denver at full strength has the depth to keep pace with Minnesota over the course of a series, which wasn\u2019t the case even two seasons ago when the Wolves outlasted the Nuggets in a classic, seven-game square-off.<\/p>\n

Even if Jaden McDaniels can slow Jamal Murray on the ball, the Nuggets \u2014 who shot 40.4% from 3-point range in March \u2014 have more offensive options to capitalize offensively off Jokic\u2019s gravity than ever before.<\/p>\n

A series with the Nuggets would require four or five games of excellence from Julius Randle in order for Minnesota to produce enough offense to pick at the lesser of Denver\u2019s two ends of the floor and squeak out a series victory.<\/p>\n

Given the up-and-down nature of Randle\u2019s play over the last four-plus months, that could be asking a lot.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Minnesota\u2019s magic number to secure a top six seed in the Western Conference playoffs and, thus, dodge the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":692955,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3782],"tags":[375,7,376,307,152,3954,6,66,308],"class_list":{"0":"post-692954","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-minnesota-timberwolves","8":"tag-anthony-edwards","9":"tag-basketball","10":"tag-julius-randle","11":"tag-minnesota","12":"tag-minnesota-timberwolves","13":"tag-minnesotatimberwolves","14":"tag-nba","15":"tag-sports","16":"tag-timberwolves"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116332384900645136","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692954","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=692954"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692954\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/692955"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=692954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=692954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=692954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}