Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday.<\/p>\n
For the last month-plus, the hottest three teams in the league have been the top three teams in the Western Conference. Since the start of March, the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder are 14-1, but they haven\u2019t been able to build a lead in the standings because the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs and the third-seeded Los Angeles Lakers are both 15-2. <\/p>\n
One of those hot runs will be set back tonight when the Thunder host the Lakers at 9:40 p.m. ET in what could be a second-round or Western Conference Finals preview, depending on how seeding shakes out over the rest of the season.<\/p>\n
Both teams should have pretty healthy squads. The only rotation player on Los Angeles\u2019 injury report is Marcus Smart, who\u2019s out with an ankle injury, and for Oklahoma City, only Alex Caruso (illness) is questionable.<\/p>\n
The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites<\/a> at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a> (-375 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 231.5. The Lakers are +295. Below, I\u2019ll break down this Amazon Prime nightcap and offer a prediction.<\/p>\n Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder preview, prediction<\/p>\n With all due respect to the Denver Nuggets\u2019 Nikola Joki\u0107, the MVP race seems like it\u2019ll come down to three players: Oklahoma City\u2019s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, San Antonio\u2019s Wembanyama, and Los Angeles\u2019 Luka Don\u010di\u0107. Don\u010di\u0107 has been around the fringes of the conversation all season, but he really stepped up in March, averaging 37.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.4 assists and 2.3 steals per game on efficient shooting splits. Thanks in part to his exploits, the Lakers have beaten several playoff teams, including back-to-back road wins over their potential first-round opponent, the Houston Rockets. LeBron James has embraced an off-ball role for the first time in his career, and both Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes have locked in defensively.<\/p>\n But Los Angeles will need all of that and more if it wants to pull off the upset against the Thunder. Since Gilgeous-Alexander returned from his abdominal strain on February 27, the team has gone 15-1 and he\u2019s averaged 31.1 points, 4.1 boards, and 6.7 assists per game while making 60.0% of his twos and attempting 10 free throws per game. Gilgeous-Alexander\u2019s singular brilliance has helped overshadow Jalen Williams\u2019 continued injury concerns and offensive inconsistency, as well as Luguentz Dort\u2019s inconsistent three-point shooting. The Canadian is favored to win his second consecutive MVP, and Chet Holmgren will likely finish in the top five in Defensive Player of the Year voting.<\/p>\n Lakers at Thunder pick, best bet<\/p>\n Only one of these two teams ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating since the start of March, and perhaps surprisingly, it\u2019s not the defending champs. The Lakers, who have had a bottom-10 defense for much of the season, rank ninth in defensive rating over the last month to go along with Don\u010di\u0107, who\u2019s a top-10 offense unto himself. Oklahoma City has stagnated offensively, ranking just 16th in offensive rating over the last month, but it has the league\u2019s best defense. The Thunder have been so dominant defensively, in fact, that they still have a better net rating than Los Angeles across that span despite their below-average offense.<\/p>\n Oklahoma City should be fine against the Lakers as long as it can get to the rim. Even amid its hot streak, Los Angeles hasn\u2019t provided much resistance within five feet, as opponents have attempted the eighth-most shots and converted at the sixth-highest rate. That could be an issue against the Thunder, who rank fourth in drives per game and have been a roughly league-average finishing team as of late. On the other end of the floor, Oklahoma City has maintained its elite rim protection, allowing the 11th-fewest attempts and the lowest percentage within five feet, so it is more capable than any of stifling the Lakers, who are the league\u2019s best finishing team despite getting to the rim at below-average frequency.<\/p>\n Controlling the glass will be key, especially for Los Angeles, which needs all the extra possessions it can get since it\u2019ll likely be less efficient than usual in the interior. That\u2019s something that the Thunder haven\u2019t been very good at; across the last month, the Lakers rank 16th in rebounding percentage and Oklahoma City 20th, and mediocre rebounding nearly did the Thunder in in their title run last spring. Los Angeles should also be able to hang with Oklahoma City in transition as long as it takes care of the ball, given that it\u2019s actually averaged more points off of turnovers than the Thunder have since the start of March. The Lakers are also one of few teams that holds an advantage in free-throw differential over Oklahoma City.<\/p>\n Three-point shooting will be a key, especially for Los Angeles, which will find the paint walled off. There, the Lakers could have some opportunities; since the start of March, the Thunder have allowed 1.1 more wide-open three-pointers per game than they have. Los Angeles also has more shooting talent, boasting three qualified shooters in the league\u2019s top 30 by three point percentage over expectation, while Oklahoma City only has one (Gilgeous-Alexander). The difference comes on the other end: since the start of March, the Thunder have generated the fifth-most wide-open threes and the Lakers the fifth-fewest, so even though Los Angeles has more tough shot-making ability, Oklahoma City\u2019s easier shot diet should be enough to make up the edge. The Lakers have also benefited from more shooting luck on both sides of the ball than the Thunder have.<\/p>\n Once shooting luck normalization is considered, the chasm between these two teams widens slightly from the 0.7 points per 100 possessions that have separated them since the start of March, and with its drive-heavy style, Oklahoma City is a particularly bad matchup for Los Angeles. Still, 9.5 points is an aggressive line against any team, and the Lakers\u2019 hustle, finishing, and discipline is absolutely sustainable. Gilgeous-Alexander\u2019s clutch bona fides will outweigh Don\u010di\u0107\u2019s in the end, but I expect this game to be close, and I don\u2019t think a playoff series would be a sweep.<\/p>\n