Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for San Antonio Spurs at LA Clippers on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Individually, the NBA is in the middle of a historically deep, talented era. While the MVP race effectively seems down to two, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama emerging as the favorites, it seems plausible that up to seven different players could receive top-three votes, with Luka Don\u010di\u0107, Nikola Joki\u0107, Jaylen Brown, Kawhi Leonard, and Cade Cunningham (if he qualifies) joining them.<\/p>\n
Tonight, two of those candidates will face off at 10:40 p.m. ET, when Leonard\u2019s LA Clippers host Wembanyama\u2019s San Antonio Spurs at the Intuit Dome.<\/p>\n
The Clippers are only without their long-term absences, Bradley Beal (hip) and Yanic Konan Niederh\u00e4user (foot), and though Luke Kornet (knee) missed San Antonio\u2019s win over the Golden State Warriors, his injury isn\u2019t thought to be particularly serious, so he\u2019ll likely return.<\/p>\n
The Spurs are 3.5-point favorites<\/a> at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a> (-170 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 230.5. LA is +142. Below, I\u2019ll break down this potential first-round preview and offer a prediction.<\/p>\n San Antonio Spurs at LA Clippers preview, prediction<\/p>\n There\u2019s red-hot, and then there\u2019s what San Antonio has been over the last two months. Since February 1, the Spurs are 26-2, including 26-1 with Wembanyama in the lineup. In that span, the Frenchman is averaging 25.6 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.6 blocks per game on 52-34-81 shooting splits, and he\u2019s in incredible recent form, dropping 41 points in each of his last two games. Plus, the role players around him have stepped up: Stephon Castle, who\u2019s hardly a knockdown three-point shooter, has canned 40.2% of his triples across that span, and Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant have both emerged as reliable two-way rotation players in their rookie seasons.<\/p>\n San Antonio definitely shouldn\u2019t underestimate the Clippers, though. After a horrid start to the season, LA has gone 33-16 to climb back over .500. Even after trading James Harden and Ivica Zubac at the trade deadline, the Clippers have gone 16-10. Since the start of the team\u2019s turnaround, Leonard has averaged 29.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game on 51-39-88 shooting splits. New acquisitions Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin have also been solid, as Garland is shooting 50.0% from three in his 14 games with the team and Mathurin has gotten to the free-throw line 8.2 times per night as LA\u2019s sixth man. <\/p>\n Spurs at Clippers pick, best bet<\/p>\n The Spurs\u2019 numbers since February 1 are pretty overwhelming. They\u2019ve had the league\u2019s best offense, pouring in 122.4 points per 100 possessions, and their defense is also ticking towards the top slot, as the Oklahoma City Thunder have managed to allow just 0.4 fewer points per 100 possessions. But the Clippers have had a top-10 offensive rating to go along with their 14th-ranked defense across the same span, and their current starting lineup of Garland, Kris Dunn, Leonard, Derrick Jones Jr., and Brook Lopez has a plus-13.0 net rating in 88 minutes. It hasn\u2019t been quite as good as San Antonio\u2019s starting five of De\u2019Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell, and Wembanyama (plus-19.9 in 260 minutes), but it\u2019s still the ninth-best among any unit with at least 75 minutes played this season.<\/p>\n Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Spurs have done a tremendous job locking down the paint recently. Since the start of February, San Antonio\u2019s opponents have attempted the fifth-fewest shots within five feet and converted at the second-lowest rate. Wembanyama\u2019s deterring presence could be a particularly important factor against LA, which has done an above-average job both getting to the rim and finishing since Mathurin made his team debut on February 10. Additionally, the Spurs \u2014 who have attempted the fifth-most shots at the rim since the start of February \u2014 have a chance to do damage inside against a team that, since Mathurin\u2019s debut, has been slightly below average in overall rim protection.<\/p>\n Rebounding will be key, which should advantage the team that employs the seven-foot-four player. San Antonio has been an top-five rebounding team all season, with Wembanyama leading the league in defensive rebounding percentage, and the Clippers rank just 25th in offensive, defensive, and total rebounding percentage since trading away Zubac. The Spurs will need to dominate the glass tonight, since LA has been a slightly more disciplined team and has more or less matched San Antonio in transition.<\/p>\n Despite having a disadvantage in the interior and on the glass, the Clippers can still pull off the upset if they shoot the ball well. The Spurs should give them plenty of opportunities; since the start of February, they\u2019ve actually given up the fourth-most wide-open threes per game and have gotten fairly lucky that opponents have connected at only a 35.4% clip. Between Leonard, Garland, Collins, and Mathurin, LA arguably has more raw shooting talent than San Antonio does, but the Spurs have been better at generating wide-open looks because of Wembanyama\u2019s gravity and have shot a higher percentage from deep recently as a result.<\/p>\n Home-court advantage could make the game somewhat closer. The Clippers have been 6.5 points per 100 possessions better at the Intuit Dome, and the last time the teams faced off at the venue, San Antonio won by just four despite Leonard not suiting up for LA. However, while the final score of that game could be encouraging for Clippers fans, the fact that the Spurs won the rebounding battle by 15 isn\u2019t. Interior dominance and rebounding prowess is one of the most sustainable paths to success, and San Antonio dominates LA by large enough margins in both those areas that the Clippers\u2019 slightly superior shooting isn\u2019t enough to make up the edge.<\/p>\n