Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings on Friday.<\/p>\n
The Sacramento Kings started the season with some hopes after losing in the Play-In Tournament last season, but all hopes were quickly dashed when their best player, Domantas Sabonis, missed significant time early in the season with a meniscus tear. For the last several months, the Kings have simply been hoping AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson will wear purple next season.<\/p>\n
If it wants to secure either man\u2019s services, Sacramento still needs to lose, as it currently holds only the fourth-best odds to land the first overall pick in this summer\u2019s NBA Draft. It\u2019ll face another bottom-feeding team at 10:10 p.m. ET tonight when it hosts the New Orleans Pelicans.<\/p>\n
As has been standard recently, the Kings have an extremely long injury list. Drew Eubanks (eye), Zach LaVine (finger), Keegan Murray (ankle), Sabonis (knee), and Russell Westbrook (toe) are all out, with Malik Monk (shoulder) questionable. Meanwhile, the Pelicans haven\u2019t submitted their injury report yet, but the only players who missed last night\u2019s game against the Portland Trail Blazers were bench pieces Bryce McGowens (toe) and Karlo Matkovi\u0107 (back). <\/p>\n
New Orleans is a 5.5-point favorite<\/a> at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a> (-218 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 234.5. Sacramento is +180 on the Moneyline. Below, I\u2019ll break down this matchup of already-eliminated sides and offer a prediction.<\/p>\n New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings preview, prediction<\/p>\n The Pelicans owe their unprotected first-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks after trading up for Derik Queen in last summer\u2019s draft, so they have no incentive to lose. As a result, they\u2019re a solid 10-11 since the All-Star break, and though they\u2019re on a six-game losing streak, all of the teams that they played in that stretch are above .500. Queen and fellow lottery pick Jeremiah Fears have looked solid, and oft-injured Zion Williamson has appeared in 50 of New Orleans\u2019 last 51 games, averaging 21.0 points per game on 62.5% shooting. The Pelicans are still in the middle of a lengthy rebuild, but it\u2019s finally starting to bear fruit.<\/p>\n The Kings have picked up the pace, winning eight games since the All-Star break alone, and DeMar DeRozan torched his former team on Wednesday night, dropping 28 points on the Toronto Raptors. After losing Sabonis, Sacramento stumbled upon an unexpected building block of its future, as second-round center Maxime Raynaud just won Western Conference Rookie of the Month after averaging 17.9 points and 8.5 rebounds per game on 60-44-78 shooting splits in March. Nique Clifford and Dylan Cardwell have also had respectable rookie seasons.<\/p>\n Pelicans at Kings pick, best bet<\/p>\n Since February 7, when the Kings shut LaVine and Sabonis down for the season, the chasm between these teams has widened. In that span, New Orleans has had a barely negative net rating, being outscored by just 0.3 points per 100 possessions, and Sacramento has been the league\u2019s fourth-worst team, struggling especially on defense. The Kings could also be a little bit worse today if Monk doesn\u2019t play, given that he\u2019s had an impact worth 1.4 points per 100 possessions, though they\u2019ve been awful with or without him. <\/p>\n Sacramento should be an excellent matchup for the Pelicans. Since the All-Star break, the Kings have allowed an above-average percentage within five feet, and Raynaud ranks in just the 26th percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions. Sacramento\u2019s lackluster interior defense could serve New Orleans well, given that it has attempted by far the most close-range shots in the league this season. The Pelicans don\u2019t defend the rim well, either, but the Kings have gotten downhill at one of the league\u2019s lowest rates since shutting down LaVine and Sabonis. All in all, New Orleans will have the advantage in the interior.<\/p>\n To be fair, Sacramento has actually been a decent rebounding team as of late despite losing Sabonis, who had led the league in rebounds per game in each of the prior three seasons. Since February 7, the Kings have snagged 50.1% of all available boards, a higher rate than the Pelicans. Where they give up the edge, though, is in transition, as New Orleans\u2019 youth and athleticism has allowed it to score the fourth-most fast-break points per game over the last 23 games. Additionally, the Pelicans have been among the league\u2019s best at drawing fouls, in part because of their post-centric game.<\/p>\n Neither of these teams can really shoot. For the season, they rank 24th (New Orleans) and 29th (Sacramento) in three-point percentage, and given the Kings\u2019 shot diet, it makes sense. Since shutting down LaVine, Sacramento has generated the second-fewest wide-open threes per game and connected on such shots at the lowest rate, a function both of bad luck and of sub-par raw shooting talent. It could find shot creation a bit easier tonight; both teams have also given up among the most uncontested looks across that span. The difference is that the Kings have gotten extremely unlucky and the Pelicans extremely lucky through shooting variance.<\/p>\n Given New Orleans\u2019 paint-centric offense and Raynaud\u2019s struggles in rim protection, the Pelicans should win this game pretty easily. I\u2019m also betting against both defenses; the fact that both teams have allowed among the most uncontested tries underscores their fundamental futility, which is more informative in the long run than fluky shooting. Three of each team\u2019s last five games have gone over the total.<\/p>\n