Many expected the Spurs to be good, but no one saw them becoming legitimate title contenders.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s exactly where San Antonio finds themself with just a handful of games left in the season. Everything that could have gone right, has gone right, and at this point, it wouldn\u2019t be surprising to see them crowned champs in June.<\/p>\n
So, how did we get here? As with everything Spurs-related, it starts with the Alien.<\/p>\n
Wemby\u2019s all-time trajectory<\/p>\n
In a vacuum, elite offense is more impactful than elite defense. Offenses dictate what\u2019s happening on the court, and the defense can only react accordingly. It\u2019s not a coincidence that a list of the best players in the world generally leans toward potent scorers\/playmakers, and for 99.9% of players, it\u2019s inaccurate to say that the two sides of the court hold equal importance.<\/p>\n
Like everything in his life, though, Wemby is that lone 0.1%. He might be the only player in NBA history who forces opponents to game plan for his defense, and that side of the court truly represents half the game for him \u2014 which might still be underselling it.<\/p>\n
With Wemby on the court this season, the Spurs have an astonishing 104.5 defensive rating, which is 2.5 points better than the historically great Thunder. His blocks are actually down to \u201cjust\u201d 3.1 this year compared to his rookie (3.6) and sophomore seasons (3.8), but that\u2019s entirely due to opponents finally realizing that it\u2019s futile to try shooting over his xenomorph-sized arms. During his minutes, teams are attempting just 26.7% of their shots within 4 feet of the basket, which would be the second-lowest percentage league-wide, only behind Boston at 24.7%. More importantly, opponents are shooting just 59.8% at the rim with Wemby on the floor, which would be the only sub-60% mark in the league in comparison to team-wide stats.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s truly a one-man defense. In the play below, Wemby\u2019s presence spooked two Pacers from shooting before stuffing Siakam.<\/p>\n
What makes Wemby great isn\u2019t just his length. Rather, it\u2019s his combination of length, agility, and motor that truly makes him one of one. Wemby\u2019s ability to move like a wing gives him the greatest margin for error in league history, and his desire to block every shot means that, well, every possible shot will be blocked.<\/p>\n
For players not named Wemby, the total potential value provided on offense and defense might lean 60\/40 towards offense. However, Wemby breaks that scale and provides a value of 60 on defense alone, when everyone else is maxed at 40. It\u2019s truly akin to a video game where you can exceed the health limits, especially considering that his offense is starting to reach elite levels too.<\/p>\n
Compared to his first two seasons, Wemby\u2019s offensive game hasn\u2019t taken a massive leap in any one area: he didn\u2019t come into the year with an unstoppable skyhook or start shooting 45% from deep. Rather, it\u2019s his decision-making, processing speed, and strength that have improved, and he\u2019s combined the friendlier shot diet from his rookie year with the efficiency jump from his sophomore campaign. Wemby\u2019s back to attempting 37% of his shots around the basket and just 29% from deep (near identical with his first year) while converting on 74% and 35% of those attempts (similar to his second year).<\/p>\n
Yet, his true shooting is up to 61.6% this year \u2014 the first time he\u2019s been above league-average in efficiency among centres. Wemby has prioritized being a play finisher instead of a creator, highlighted by a career-high 2.63 dunks per game and a career-low in three-point rate. As a result, he\u2019s averaging by far the most points per 36 minutes of his young career with 29.8, up from 26.3 last year.<\/p>\n
Even so, Wemby\u2019s greatest offensive weapon is the open shots he creates for his teammates. With the Alien on the court, San Antonio has a 121.6 offensive rating \u2014 a number only eclipsed by Denver this year. The Spurs\u2019 shot chart in his minutes is an analytics nerd\u2019s dream: they attempt 36.1% of their shots at the rim (87th percentile) and 14% from corner threes (98th). That latter number is a full percentage more than the #1 team in generating corner threes this year and is actually the highest number in NBA history. The Spurs are also converting on 40.7% of those attempts, which is 2% above the league average. I\u2019d usually consider that to be unsustainable since opposing teams usually have little control over opponent three-point percentages, but Wemby creates such open looks that San Antonio\u2019s conversion rate might actually have staying power.<\/p>\n
Wemby\u2019s gravity extends out to three as well. He\u2019s currently making a sub-par 34.8% from deep, but his ability to get hot and hit a flurry of triples forces opposing big men to guard him on the perimeter, opening up driving lanes for others. That\u2019s a match made in heaven for the Spurs\u2019 three-headed backcourt monster, as Castle, Fox, and Harper are all excellent slashers. For example, Wemby\u2019s gravity forces Bam to guard on the perimeter in the clip below, allowing Harper to attack and finish over a smaller defender.<\/p>\n
The Spurs\u2019 +17.1 net rating with Wemby on the court is the highest number amongst all players this season, proving that he\u2019s arguably the best player in the world already. Throughout league history, only a handful of players were considered to be in that realm during their age-22 seasons: LeBron, Kareem, Magic, Shaq, Duncan, Oscar, and Jordan. Wemby is well on his way to joining that pantheon of greats, but he\u2019ll need to go through the crucible of the playoffs to truly establish himself as the top dog. Still, given what we\u2019ve seen so far, no one should be surprised if he\u2019s the undisputed #1 in a few months.<\/p>\n
I was extremely down on Castle last season. His passing was just meh for a guard, and the less said about his shooting and efficiency, the better. I viewed him as more of a Marcus Smart trick or treat type player rather than one destined for stardom.<\/p>\n
Well, Castle\u2019s made me eat crow this year, and I couldn\u2019t be happier.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s now up to 57.4% true shooting (from 52.2), right around the league average for guards. Castle\u2019s 13 drives per game rank 20th league-wide, and he\u2019s scoring on a robust 48% on those attempts. The sophomore is among the very best at pressuring the rim, with 44% of his shots coming within 4 feet of the basket (93rd percentile among guards). He still shoots an average percentage from there (63%) and most areas of the court, but that\u2019s still a huge improvement from last year, and Castle\u2019s percentages have been aided by the fact that he attempts so many shots in the most efficient area of the court.<\/p>\n
More importantly, the way Castle scores has changed. His jump in efficiency is mostly attributed to a plethora of moves he\u2019s refined, and Castle is much better at utilizing his functional athleticism now. He\u2019s one of the very best in the league at using explosiveness, strength, and power to get to the rim and finish through contact if needed. Castle\u2019s exceptional body control allows him to change speeds and directions in an instant, with most defenders unable to react and recover quickly enough to keep up.<\/p>\n
Even with his scoring improvements, the biggest leap Castle\u2019s made this year has been his playmaking. He went from a 23% assist percentage last year (74th percentile) to 33.9% now (99th), resulting in him averaging 7.3 assists per game \u2014 a top 10 mark league-wide. Castle has learned how to read defenses and patiently wait for opponents to commit before finding an opening, and he utilizes his rim pressure to kick out to open shooters.<\/p>\n
Castle is a great lob thrower, too. He\u2019s not just dining off of Wemby, either: Kornet has benefited just as much from his passes.<\/p>\n
Castle is one of the league\u2019s most efficient passers as well. He\u2019s top 10 in points created from assists (19.3) and top 15 in potential assists, but outside the top 30 in passes made per game. In other words, the numbers imply that Castle might be capable of becoming more of a heliocentric guard if given the opportunity, but the one area that holds him back is his turnover rate: he has a 2.25 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and is also turning the ball over on 15.9% of all individual possessions (7th percentile).<\/p>\n
On top of that, Castle is still a questionable shooter at best. He\u2019s making 32.3% of his triples this year (up from 28.5% last year), and while he made over 40% of them in March, the overall body of work suggests that he\u2019s still a below-average shooter \u2014 especially for a guard. Still, his combination of scoring, passing, and All-defense level of two-way ability makes Castle a top-40, borderline All-Star now, and I already consider him the second-best player on the Spurs with the potential to make an All-NBA team in the near future. Whether or not Castle reaches those heights and proves himself capable as a lead ballhandler remains to be seen, but it might be a moot point considering that San Antonio has an even better guard prospect lying in wait.<\/p>\n
The basketball gods have a chosen son, and it\u2019s the Spurs. To luck into Wemby after a tanking season is one thing, but getting the second pick with the 8th-best odds in a loaded draft is a whole new level of favoritism.<\/p>\n
Harper has come as advertised. He was one of the league\u2019s craftiest drivers and finishers from day one, and has only improved since. Many of his underlying numbers are comparable, if not better, than Castle\u2019s this season, with both being drive-first guards with questionable shooting.<\/p>\n
Harper is attempting 50% of his shots at the rim (98th percentile for a guard) and making 63% of those attempts (50th), while being lethal in all other areas inside the arc. The rookie is converting on a mind-blowing 56.5% of his twos, which ranks in the 86th percentile for his position. Harper\u2019s 8.4 drives per game is already above average league-wide, and that number would easily be in the top 20 if he played starter minutes. More impressively, his 55.3% conversion rate on such possessions is 12th league-wide among all players with 500 or more drives this year.<\/p>\n
Looking at the tape, it\u2019s easy to see why. Harper has some of the best footwork in the league, and he\u2019s able to get past defenders even after picking up his dribble \u2014 very Manu and Hakeem-esque.<\/p>\n
Another skill that separates Harper is his decision-making and ball-handling. The rookie\u2019s 10.5% turnover rate is in the 77th percentile for all guards, and he has a robust 2.8 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio that\u2019s well ahead of players such as Cade, Harden, and Shai in their first few years in the league.<\/p>\n
Like Castle, though, Harper\u2019s biggest weakness is his inconsistent long-range shooting. He\u2019s made just 32.1% of his triples this year, and while that number was 53.7% in March, Harper\u2019s history suggests that his recent form is an unsustainable hot stretch. Even if his jumper never becomes a weapon, I would still bet on Harper becoming an All-NBA player through his combination of elite two-point efficiency, reliable playmaking, and solid defense. He\u2019s already good enough to play a crucial role in a potential Spurs run, and Harper could be the team\u2019s second-best player as soon as next season. If the jumper does develop, he seems like a virtual lock to be a top-15 player in the league for years to come.<\/p>\n
Fox: Fox is the more mature version of Castle and Harper in many ways. He\u2019s also top-30 in drives per game (12) and is tied with Harper in field goal percentage on drives (55.3%), and they\u2019re ranked first and second, respectively, in drive FG% since January 1st<\/a>. The Spurs\u2019 depth has allowed Fox to scale back, as his 27.1% usage is the second-lowest rate of his career. Inversely, that has helped him record the second-highest true shooting percentage of his career (58.1%), although his 3-point shooting remains hit or miss (33.7%). Still, Fox is a vital part of this team even with the emergence of Harper and Castle, as he brings a stable presence and is the Spurs\u2019 go-to perimeter option in crunch time. He could be moved in the next few years to make room for Harper, but for now, Fox remains a crucial piece who\u2019s still playing at an All-Star level.<\/p>\n The wing shooters: Vassell, Champagnie, Barnes, and Johnson are the support pieces that elevate San Antonio\u2019s ceiling. The four of them have all bought into their roles, and the spacing they provide makes life easy for Wemby and the guards on drives. They\u2019re making a combined 38.5% from deep on 20.9 attempts a game, helping mitigate some of the shooting concerns of the guards. All four wings are also adequate defenders with some off-the-dribble game, which means that the Spurs don\u2019t have a single liability on either end of the court.<\/p>\n Kornet: One of the more underappreciated players this season, Kornet has been vital in keeping the Spurs competitive in the non-Wemby minutes. Remember, the Alien is averaging 29 minutes per game and has logged just 1784 total minutes \u2014 less than 50% of the team\u2019s total minutes this year. With Kornet on and Wemby off, the Spurs still have a solid 114.4 defensive rating (64th percentile) and a +3.6 net rating with a 118.0 offense. He\u2019s the main reason why San Antonio can afford to save Wemby for the playoffs, and will continue to play a vital role moving forward.<\/p>\n The Spurs are a bonafide title contender, full stop. Wemby is an all-time defense unto himself, and the offense has been elite, too. The fit between the three guards has also been more seamless than expected due to the combination of their rim pressure with the spacing provided by Wemby in the middle and the wings in the corners.<\/p>\n Still, San Antonio\u2019s lack of playoff experience is a reasonable concern, along with the absence of an elite #2 option. Recent champions all had a second All-NBA-calibre player on the roster, and while Castle and Fox (and perhaps Harper) can reach those heights on any given night, none of them have consistently played at that level this year.<\/p>\n For now, I\u2019d consider the Spurs to be beneath OKC in the contender tiers, but they\u2019re the clear #2 and the biggest threat to the defending champs. San Antonio reminds me more of the 2024 one-seed Thunder that lost in the second round than the 2025 champs, but with Wemby on their side, there is no ceiling high enough for this team.<\/p>\n The Spurs are fated to win a title in the near future. The only question that remains is when.<\/p>\n This week, please check out Mateo\u2019s<\/a> article on Harper\u2019s rookie season<\/a>! He does a great job of diving even deeper into the numbers and shows just why we\u2019re all so high on Harper\u2019s potential.<\/p>\n All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass<\/a> and NBA Stats<\/a>.
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