Men\u2019s College Basketball Best Bets:<\/p>\n
The women\u2019s Final Four games take place today, Friday the 3rd, which I wrote about yesterday<\/a> here at VSiN.com<\/a>. Now, it\u2019s time for the men\u2019s Final Four projections from the T Shoe Index, which features the Illinois Fighting Illini vs the U Conn Huskies, plus perhaps the most anticipated matchup of all time for KenPom disciples, between the Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats \u2013 both of whom are top-5 KenPom teams of all time. I\u2019ll have to do a retroactive refresh of my formula to tell you whether or not TSI agrees with that, but it\u2019s not far-fetched. Now, for the projections:<\/p>\n Illinois (-1.5) vs. UConn, O\/U 139.5<\/p>\n Illinois is 24-8 on the season, and despite my bracket being terrible overall, I actually did have them in the national championship game. More on that in a minute. They\u2019re taking on Dan Hurley\u2019s 29-5 UConn squad that won on a miraculous buzzer beater against Duke after trailing most of the game. Illinois has covered all four of its spreads in the tournament, winning by an average of 19.5 points per game. The Huskies have been a little more fortunate and a little less dominant than the Illini, winning by just 8 points per game so far this tournament, but covering in three out of four games. TSI projects Illinois -5 with a total of 138 in this game, so I\u2019m backing Illinois -1.5 here, both from a numbers standpoint and the fact this is a rare situational spot to fade UConn after such a memorable comeback.<\/p>\n Bet: Illinois -1.5<\/p>\n Michigan (-1.5) vs Arizona, O\/U 157.5<\/p>\n For much of the season, this 31-2 Michigan squad looked like the best team in the country; however, they hit a stretch in February that had me doubting their ability to win a national championship in that form. They\u2019ve quickly returned to form in this tournament and are winning by 22.5 points per game. They\u2019re taking on, however, another team that had times where it looked like it was the best team in the country, in the 32-2 Arizona Wildcats. They\u2019ve covered every game this tournament with a margin of victory of 20.5 points per game. These are two dominant teams about to collide on the biggest stage in college basketball. I mentioned my bracket earlier, and with the good comes the bad; while I had Illinois advancing to the national championship game, I had them losing to Arizona. TSI tells me that\u2019s now wrong. TSI projects Michigan -2 with a total of 163.5. Although there doesn\u2019t appear to be much value in the TSI number, it\u2019s important to understand how the projection is made, with some parts season-long data and some parts recent form. The recent form component actually makes Michigan a 6 point favorite, so I\u2019m going to lay the 1.5 with the Wolverines here.<\/p>\n Bet: Michigan -1.5
Lean: Over 157.5<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Men\u2019s College Basketball Best Bets: The women\u2019s Final Four games take place today, Friday the 3rd, which I…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":697346,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3723],"tags":[7,217,7940,228,231,772,1544],"class_list":{"0":"post-697345","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-basketball","8":"tag-basketball","9":"tag-college-basketball","10":"tag-college-basketball-betting","11":"tag-featured","12":"tag-ncaa","13":"tag-ncaa-basketball","14":"tag-ncaab"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/697345","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=697345"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/697345\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/697346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=697345"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=697345"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=697345"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}