{"id":697735,"date":"2026-04-04T13:02:20","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T13:02:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/697735\/"},"modified":"2026-04-04T13:02:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-04T13:02:20","slug":"the-nbas-anti-tanking-plans-and-how-they-affect-the-mavs-part-iv","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/697735\/","title":{"rendered":"The NBA\u2019s anti-tanking plans and how they affect the Mavs \u2013 Part IV"},"content":{"rendered":"

By now you\u2019ve likely seen our first three parts (Part I<\/a>, Part II<\/a>, Part III<\/a>) covering the NBA\u2019s attempt to curb tanking. In this, our fourth and final part, we\u2019ll take a look at the last of the proposed changes being brought before the Board of Governors.<\/p>\n

For ease of reference, here are the basics of the current rules that we\u2019ve included in each of the prior parts. As it stands, the 14 teams that do not make the Playoffs are eligible for the lottery. Don\u2019t confuse making the Play In Tournament with making the Playoffs \u2013 they are not the same. 16 teams make the Playoffs when all is said and done, with 14 heading to the lottery. Lottery odds are flat (14%) for the three worst teams, with the odds decreasing from there down to the 14th worst team (0.5%). The team with the worst record can receive no worse than the 5th pick, as the lottery only determines picks 1-4 with the rest of the draft order following inversely of a team\u2019s record.<\/p>\n

Option 3 \u2013 Five-by-five, dual-lottery<\/p>\n

Key aspects of the proposal include:<\/p>\n

This proposal is probably the best indication that the NBA has a lot of lawyers running things. It seems this proposal is the most likely of the three to confuse fans. That doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s a bad idea, but it doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s a good one either. It matches the first proposal in terms of the number of lottery teams, but pairs it with a level of complexity that echoes the second proposal in terms of variables. A dual lottery is intriguing, but flat odds for the five worst teams doesn\u2019t move the dial all the much from where things currently stand (flat odds for the three worst teams). It also may result in plenty of teams still looking to tank, just maybe slightly less so. The second lottery for picks 6-18 is where things get even more interesting. Is the prospect of being in a second lottery enough to incentivize teams to make the Play In Tournament? A Play In team with a good chance to jump to the number 6 pick is certainly enticing.<\/p>\n

What it could mean for the Mavericks<\/p>\n

Dependent upon when the changes take place, this could potentially benefit the Mavericks. If a reasonable expectation is for them to be a Play In team that quickly becomes a lock for a top-six Playoff team, it could put the Mavericks in position to move up in the draft just as they are breaking through the Play In Tournament phase of their growth. As with all of these scenarios, there are a ton of variables and timing concerns that would greatly change things for Dallas. With the number of picks swaps going against them in the coming years and how little control they have of their picks in general until 2031, their best outcome would be getting good quickly and hoping these changes are not imminent. The latter seems unlikely, so it\u2019s possible Dallas could get some good draft luck that serves only to benefit another team.<\/p>\n

I invite you to follow me @_80MPH<\/a> on X, and check back often at Mavs Moneyball<\/a> for all the latest on the Dallas Mavericks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By now you\u2019ve likely seen our first three parts (Part I, Part II, Part III) covering the NBA\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":697736,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3793],"tags":[7,686,149,4057,166,42852,6],"class_list":{"0":"post-697735","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-dallas-mavericks","8":"tag-basketball","9":"tag-dallas","10":"tag-dallas-mavericks","11":"tag-dallasmavericks","12":"tag-mavericks","13":"tag-mavericks-draft","14":"tag-nba"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nba\/116346574885950043","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/697735","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=697735"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/697735\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/697736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=697735"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=697735"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=697735"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}