Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets on Friday.<\/p>\n
Drafted with the third pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, LaMelo Ball has played 298 career games and averaged 20.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game. By any measure except for durability, his career has been a success. But unlike Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, and Tyrese Maxey \u2014 three of the other four All-Stars in the class \u2014 Ball has never played a playoff game.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s closing in on changing that this season, as his Charlotte Hornets are currently the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference and have an excellent chance to inch closer to the top six tonight if they can beat the woeful Indiana Pacers at 7:10 p.m. ET. <\/p>\n
Indiana has plenty of motivation to lose, as it is only one and a half games ahead of the Sacramento Kings for the third-worst record in the league and owes a top-four protected pick to the LA Clippers. As such, the Pacers\u2019 injury list is fairly long: in addition to Haliburton (Achilles), Johnny Furphy (ACL), and Ivica Zubac (rib), who are out for the season, T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Andrew Nembhard (back), Aaron Nesmith (back), and Jarace Walker (back) will sit out tonight\u2019s game. The Hornets should be completely healthy.<\/p>\n
Charlotte is a 15.5-point favorite<\/a> at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a> (-1350 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 234.5. Indiana is +800 on the Moneyline. Below, I\u2019ll break down this matchup and offer a prediction.<\/p>\n Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets preview, prediction<\/p>\n To be fair, the Pacers have won two straight games after starting the second half of the season off with a 16-game losing streak, and they\u2019ve scored at least 135 points in both of the wins. The last two wins have mostly been the doing of Pascal Siakam, who could sneak onto an All-NBA team if he plays four more games. They\u2019ve also gotten plenty of contributions from unsung players, including 24 points from rookie Ethan Thompson in Wednesday\u2019s win over the Chicago Bulls. That won\u2019t be helpful this season, but it\u2019s possible that Thompson could be part of the rotation when Indiana jumps back into contention next season.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the Hornets have stayed hot. Since the calendar flipped to 2026, Charlotte is 30-14, and likely Rookie of the Year Kon Knueppel is averaging 18.5 points per game on 43.1% shooting from beyond the arc across that span. All in all, the Hornets have four players averaging at least 17 points per game (Brandon Miller, Ball, Knueppel, and Miles Bridges), and Coby White has averaged 15.9 points per game as Charlotte\u2019s sixth man since arriving in a trade from the Chicago Bulls. There\u2019s recent precedent for a team getting hot at the turn of the calendar and riding that momentum deep into the playoffs; last season\u2019s Pacers were just 16-18 on December 31 and ended up making it to Game 7 of the NBA Finals<\/a>.<\/p>\n Pacers at Hornets pick, best bet<\/p>\n Charlotte\u2019s contender-level run now accounts for more than half of its season. Since January 1, the Hornets have had the league\u2019s best offense, its fourth-best defense, and its best net rating. For the season, no lineup with at least 100 minutes played has a better net rating than Charlotte\u2019s starting unit of Ball, Knueppel, Miller, Bridges, and Moussa Diabat\u00e9 (plus-28.7). The Hornets\u2019 form stands in stark contrast with that of Indiana: this season, the Pacers have had the fourth-worst offense and the fourth-worst defense. However, it\u2019s possible that they\u2019ll be slightly better off without Nembhard and Walker, both of whom have negative on-off net ratings this season. They\u2019ll have their most important player, Siakam, whose plus-6.2 on-off net rating is the 32nd-best in basketball.<\/p>\n It\u2019s just difficult for any team to get much going against a defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest shot attempts within five feet since January 1, and Indiana will probably struggle more than most with that, given that it has generated the ninth-fewest close-range tries since the All-Star break. Plus, while Charlotte\u2019s offense is perimeter-centric, it might do a better job getting to the rack than usual tonight against a Pacers defense that has allowed the third-most shots within five feet across the second half of the season, but driving will always be a supplementary piece.<\/p>\n The Hornets should also be able to get plenty of extra possessions. They\u2019ve been dominant on the glass this season, posting the league\u2019s highest rebounding percentage since January 1, snagging 37.2% of all available offensive boards and 73.3% of all defensive boards. Additionally, Indiana has been the leagues third-worst rebounding team across the same span, and Walker and Nembhard have both made a positive impact on the glass. Neither team has a significant advantage over the other in transition, and both are equally disciplined and equally bad at drawing fouls.<\/p>\n The Pacers\u2019 ability to defend the three-point line will be key. Charlotte depends heavily on its three-point shooting, and it\u2019s generated some pretty easy looks, attempting the third-most wide-open three-pointers per game since the start of 2026 while connecting at a 41.9% clip. With Knueppel ranking fourth league-wide in three-point percentage over expectation, that\u2019s likely to be sustainable. However, Indiana has actually created even more uncontested triples in the same span and converted at a similar rate, and it has done an even better job closing out on opposing shooters. The Hornets have benefited from more shooting luck defensively than the Pacers have, as Charlotte\u2019s opponents have converted at a league-low 35.4% clip on wide-open threes since the start of the calendar year.<\/p>\n The Hornets\u2019 advantage in interior defense and rebounding is real, as is Indiana\u2019s dip in form on the road. Ultimately, though, the Pacers\u2019 spot among the bottom three is relatively secure, and as long as Siakam plays a regular minutes load, he should be able to keep the game within 10 points. The swarming defensive identity that carried them to the NBA Finals last season could provide a challenge for Charlotte\u2019s perimeter-oriented offense. To boot, Indiana is actually 2-1 against the Hornets this season.<\/p>\n