{"id":701968,"date":"2026-04-06T20:13:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T20:13:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/701968\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T20:13:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T20:13:17","slug":"3-things-to-watch-odds-and-prediction-80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nba\/701968\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Things to Watch, Odds and Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

How To Watch:\u00a0FanDuel Sports Network Florida (Orlando); FanDuel Sports Network Detroit (Detroit); NBA League Pass (National)STREAM MAGIC-PISTONS ON FUBO TV<\/a>How to Listen:\u00a0WYGM 96.9 FM (Orlando); 740AM (Orlando); 950 AM (Detroit); Sirius XM Channel 145 (Magic); NBA Audio League Pass (National)FOLLOW LIVE: @OMAGICDAILY<\/a>Tickets:\u00a0$44-$680+ on StubHub<\/a>Season Series:\u00a0<\/a>Pistons 135, Magic 116<\/a> in Detroit on Oct. 29; Magic 112, Pistons 109<\/a> in Detroit on Nov. 28 (NBA Cup Group Play); Pistons 106, Magic 92<\/a> in Orlando on March 1; Tonight in OrlandoOrlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch<\/p>\n

Detroit<\/p>\n

Orlando<\/p>\n

99.9<\/p>\n

Pace<\/p>\n

100.4<\/p>\n

116.9<\/p>\n

Off. Rtg.<\/p>\n

114.0<\/p>\n

108.6<\/p>\n

Def. Rtg.<\/p>\n

114.0<\/p>\n

54.4<\/p>\n

eFG%<\/p>\n

52.9<\/p>\n

35.3<\/p>\n

O.Reb.%<\/p>\n

30.3<\/p>\n

15.0<\/p>\n

TO%<\/p>\n

13.9<\/p>\n

29.3<\/p>\n

FTR<\/p>\n

31.0<\/p>\n

1. With and without Franz Wagner<\/p>\n

It is no surprise that Franz Wagner will sit out Monday’s game against the Detroit Pistons on the second night of a back-to-back. <\/p>\n

That is a little disappointing considering the Orlando Magic are in this tight playoff race — now a game back of sixth-place Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers (in seventh). The Magic need to win at least three of the four games, if not all four to get there.<\/p>\n

Wagner has played extremely limited minutes in his three games since returning from injury — 57 total minutes in three games and 41 total points on 17-for-35 shooting. <\/p>\n

All things considered, this is a pretty good return. And Wagner has hit some big shots — scoring seven critical points in the third quarter of Friday’s win over the Dallas Mavericks<\/a> and hitting a huge basket late in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s win over the New Orleans Pelicans<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It is more than that, though. <\/p>\n

In the last three games, the Magic have a +13.8 net rating with Wagner on the floor with a very solid 100.0 offensive rating. They are -16.9 points per 100 possessions (104.9 offensive rating\/121.7 defensive rating) with Wagner off the floor.<\/p>\n

These are small sample sizes with the loss to the Atlanta Hawks weighed in there. But Wagner has indeed been a breath of fresh air for this team.<\/p>\n

2. Rebounding troubles<\/p>\n

The Orlando Magic have been a good rebounding team for most of the season. They are seventh in the league, giving up a 29.1 percent offensive rebound rate and second in the league with 13.9 second-chance points allowed per game.<\/p>\n

But this stat has had several noticeable slip-ups. And the team has had some weak moments on the glass.<\/p>\n

Since March 1 — which includes both the win streak and the losing streak — the Magic are ninth with a 28.9 opponent offensive rebound rate and fifth in the league with 12.5 second-chance points per game. Since March 15 (taking out the win streak), the Magic are 10th at 29.7 opponent offensive rebound rate and seventh with 12.4 second-chance points per game.<\/p>\n

This is a perception problem as much as anything for the Magic.<\/p>\n

But it is the key to tonight’s game. The Detroit Pistons are third in the league with a 35.3 percent offensive rebound rate and fifth in the league with 16.9 second-chance points per game.<\/p>\n

If Orlando is going to win tonight, it starts on the glass.<\/p>\n

3. Battle at the line<\/p>\n

The Orlando Magic’s only offensive trait that has been in the top of the league during the last decade has been the team’s ability to get to the foul line since Paolo Banchero joined the team.<\/p>\n

Orlando is still second in the league with a 31.0 percent free throw rate (31 free throw attempts for every 100 field goal attempts). That is still among teh best marks in the league. Banchero is sixth in the league with 8.2 free throw attempts per game.<\/p>\n

The Magic must survive on a healthy diet of getting to the foul line. That is a good sign of their physicality.<\/p>\n

But there is another side to that coin. The team’s physical defensive style often means Orlando is putting its opponent on the line a lot.<\/p>\n

This season, the Magic are 26th with a 28.8 percent free throw rate. Since March 15, the Magic are 29th in the league at 31.5 percent.<\/p>\n

Orlando is fouling a lot. And that has derailed much of its defense.<\/p>\n

That is the big question going against the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are one of the best teams at getting to the line too at 29.3 percent — and even 27.6 percent in the last 10 games without Cade Cunningham.<\/p>\n

If Orlando wants to win, the team needs to keep Detroit off the foul line and be disciplined on defense while staying aggressive getting downhill against a formidable defense.<\/p>\n

Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons: Injury Report & Projected LineupsDetroit Pistons Injury ReportCade Cunningham – DOUBTFUL (Left Lung Pneumothorax)Tobias Harris – DOUBTFUL (Left Knee Contusion; Left Hip Injury Management)Duncan Robinson – DOUBTFUL (Right Hip Strain)Isaiah Stewart – DOUBTFUL (Left Calf Strain)Caris LeVert – QUESTIONABLE (Bilateral Knee Injury Management)Bobi Klintman – OUT (G-League On Assignment)Wendell Moore Jr. – OUT (G-League Two-Way)Isaac Jones – OUT (G-League Two-Way)Orlando Magic Injury ReportFranz Wagner – OUT (Left High Ankle Sprain Injury Management)Anthony Black – PROBABLE (Left Lateral Abdominal Strain)Jonathan Isaac – OUT (Left Knee Sprain)Jett Howard – OUT (Left Ankle Sprain)Projected Starting Lineups<\/p>\n

Detroit<\/p>\n

Orlando<\/p>\n

Daniss Jenkins<\/p>\n

PG<\/p>\n

Jalen Suggs<\/p>\n

Kevin Huerter<\/p>\n

SG<\/p>\n

Desmond Bane<\/p>\n

Caris LeVert<\/p>\n

SF<\/p>\n

Tristan da Silva<\/p>\n

Ausar Thompson<\/p>\n

PF<\/p>\n

Paolo Banchero<\/p>\n

Jalen Duren<\/p>\n

C<\/p>\n

Wendell Carter<\/p>\n

Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons: PredictionOur Record: 49-29\/33-45 ATS<\/p>\n

This is a classic April basketball game. Nobody knows who is actually going to play.<\/p>\n

The Detroit Pistons clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference with Saturday’s win over the Philadelphia 76ers. Their injury report reflects that, with Tobias Harris and Duncan Robinson DOUBTFUL with lingering injuries. Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart are waiting in the wings, but still seem unlikely to play tonight.<\/p>\n

That means there is a skeleton crew for the Pistons. A talented one that the Orlando Magic should not look past. But one that is not the Pistons at full strength.<\/p>\n

Orlando provided some good news too, upgrading Anthony Black to PROBABLE<\/a> on the 3:15 p.m. injury report after he was initially ruled OUT and upgraded to QUESTIONABLE. Black’s return is a huge boost for the team, especially with Franz Wagner OUT on the back-to-back.<\/p>\n

The stars are beginning to align for the Magic to be healthy.<\/p>\n

This is still a big challenge. Jalen Duren is an All-Star and a big load in the paint. Orlando will not win this game without some intense effort. And that is always tough on the second night of a back-to-back — especially traveling east from the Central Time Zone.<\/p>\n

But the Magic are playing better. If they play with the intensity they finished Sunday’s game, they have a chance to win this game. And that could be the kind of win they need to propel them into this final week.<\/p>\n